Frederick M. Burkle

Development of a triage protocol for critical care during an influenza pandemic

Background: The recent outbreaks of avian influenza (H5N1) have placed a renewed emphasis on preparing for an influenza pandemic in humans. Of particular concern in this planning is the allocation of resources, such as ventilators and antiviral medications, which will likely become scarce during a pandemic. Methods: We applied a collaborative process using best evidence, expert panels, stakeholder consultations and ethical principles to develop a triage protocol for prioritizing access to critical care resources, including mechanical ventilation, during a pandemic. Results: The triage protocol uses the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and has 4 main components: inclusion criteria, exclusion criteria, minimum qualifications for survival and a prioritization tool. Interpretation: This protocol is intended to provide guidance for making triage decisions during the initial days to weeks of an influenza pandemic if the critical care system becomes overwhelmed. Although we designed this protocol for use during an influenza pandemic, the triage protocol would apply to patients both with and without influenza, since all patients must share a single pool of critical care resources.

Prevalence of mental disorders among children exposed to war: a systematic review of 7,920 children

Worldwide, millions of children are affected by armed conflict. However, data on the prevalence of mental disorders among these children is sparse. We aimed to determine the prevalence of mental disorders among children affected by war using a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. We systematically reviewed existing literature to identify studies on prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, depression and psychosis among children exposed to armed conflict. We searched electronic databases and references listed in studies to obtain eligible studies. We pooled studies using the random-effects method and explored heterogeneity using meta-regression analysis. Seventeen studies met our inclusion criteria. Studies included 7,920 children. Sample sizes ranged from 22 to 2,976. Four studies were conducted during a conflict and others during post-conflict. All the studies reported PTSD as the primary outcome ranging from 4.5 to 89.3%, with an overall pooled estimate of 47% (9% CI: 35–60%, I 2 = 98%). Meta-analysis heterogeneity was attributable to study location (OR 1.33, 95% CI: 1.27–1.41), method of measurement (OR 1.36, 95% CI: 1.29–1.44) and duration since exposure to war (coefficient 0.17, 95% CI: 0.94–0.25). In addition, four studies reported elevated depression that allowed pooling (43%, 95% CI: 31–55%) and three studies reported elevated anxiety disorders allowing pooling (27%, 95% CI: 21–33%). Our systematic review suggests a higher prevalence rate of mental disorders among children exposed to conflict than among the general population. Given the number of current conflicts, there is a paucity of information regarding mental disorders among children affected by war.

A consensus-based educational framework and competency set for the discipline of disaster medicine and public health preparedness.

BACKGROUND Various organizations and universities have developed competencies for health professionals and other emergency responders. Little effort has been devoted to the integration of these competencies across health specialties and professions. The American Medical Association Center for Public Health Preparedness and Disaster Response convened an expert working group (EWG) to review extant competencies and achieve consensus on an educational framework and competency set from which educators could devise learning objectives and curricula tailored to fit the needs of all health professionals in a disaster. METHODS The EWG conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and non-peer reviewed published literature. In addition, after-action reports from Hurricane Katrina and relevant publications recommended by EWG members and other subject matter experts were reviewed for congruencies and gaps. Consensus was ensured through a 3-stage Delphi process. RESULTS The EWG process developed a new educational framework for disaster medicine and public health preparedness based on consensus identification of 7 core learning domains, 19 core competencies, and 73 specific competencies targeted at 3 broad health personnel categories. CONCLUSIONS The competencies can be applied to a wide range of health professionals who are expected to perform at different levels (informed worker/student, practitioner, leader) according to experience, professional role, level of education, or job function. Although these competencies strongly reflect lessons learned following the health system response to Hurricane Katrina, it must be understood that preparedness is a process, and that these competencies must be reviewed continually and refined over time.

Mass casualty management of a large-scale bioterrorist event: an epidemiological approach that shapes triage decisions.

The threat of a BT event has catalyzed serious reflection on the troublesome issues that come with event management and triage. Such reflection has had the effect of multiplying the efforts to find solutions to what could become a catastrophic public health disaster. Management options are becoming more robust, as are reliable detection devices and rapid access to stockpiled antibiotics and vaccines. There is much to be done, however, especially in the organizing, warehousing, and granting/exercising authority for resource allocations. The introduction of these new options should encourage one to believe that, in time, evolving standards of care will make it possible to rethink the currently unthinkable consequences. Unfortunately the cost of such preparedness is high and out of reach of most governments. Most of the developing world has neither the will nor the means to plan for BT events and remains overwhelmed with basic public health concerns (i.e., water, food, sanitation, shelter) that must take priority. Therefore, developed countries will be expected to respond using international exogenous resources to mitigate the effects of such a disaster. As a result, the state capacity of the effected government will be severely compromised. If triage and management of casualties is further compromised, terrorists will have met their goals. One could argue that health sciences will continue for decades to play catch up with the advanced technology driving potential bioagent weaponry. If one lesson was learned from the review of the former Soviet Unions biological weapons program, it is that the unthinkable remains an option to terrorists who have comparable expertise. It is crucial to develop realistic strategies for a BT event. Triage planning (the process of establishing criteria for health care prioritization) permits society to see cases in the context of diverse moral perspectives, limited resources, and compelling health care demands. This includes a competent and compassionate management and triage system and an in-depth and accurate health information system that appropriately addresses every level of threat or consequence. In a PICE stage I to III BT event resources will be compromised. Triage and management will be one process requiring multiple levels of cooperation, coordination, and decision-making. An immediate challenge to existing emergency medical services systems (EMSS) is the recognition that locally there will be a shift of emphasis and decision-making from prehospital first responders to community public health authorities. The author suggests that a working relationship, in most areas, between EMSS and the public health system is lacking. As priorities shift in a BT event to hospitals and public health care systems, they need to: 1. Improve their capabilities and capacities in surveillance, discovery, and in the consequences of different triage and management decisions and interventions in a BT environment, starting at the local level. 2. Develop triage and management systems (with clear lines of authority) based on public health and epidemiologic requirements, capability, and capacity (triage teams, categories, tags, rapid response, established operational priorities, resource-driven responsible management process), and link local level surveillance systems with those at the national or regional level. 3. Use a triage and management system that reflects the population (cohort) at risk, such as the epidemiologic based SEIRV triage framework. 4. Develop an organizational capacity that uses lateral decision-making skills, pre-hospital outpatient centers for triage-specific treatments, health information systems, and resource-driven hospital level pre-designated protocols appropriate for a surge of unprecedented proportions. Such standards of care, it is recommended, should be set at the local to federal levels and spelled out in existing incident-management system protocols.

Lessons learnt and future expectations of complex emergencies

> Where civil blood makes civil hands unclean.—Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet , 1597 Complex emergencies today represent the ultimate pathway of state disruption Zwi says that recent conflicts such as those in northern Iraq, Somalia, Rwanda, Angola, the former Yugoslavia, and the province of Kosovo should be interpreted as complex political disasters where “the capacity to sustain livelihood and life is threatened primarily by political factors, and in particular, by high levels of violence.”1 Although each of the over 38 major conflicts that have occurred in this decade since the end of the cold war is unique, all share similar characteristics (box). Most blatant is that they represent catastrophic public health emergencies in which over 70% of the victims are civilians, primarily children and adolescents These mainly internal crises are popularly referred to as complex emergencies. The complexity refers to the multifacted responses initiated by the international community and further complicated by the lack of protection normally afforded by international treaties, covenants, and the United Nations Charter during conventional wars. #### Characteristics of complex emergencies Health resources, both civilian (those provided by United Nations agencies, the International Committee and Federation of the Red Cross/Red Crescent, and many non-governmental organisations) and military, have played a major part in the emergency response, recovery, and rehabilitation phases of complex emergencies. In the process health providers have made major advances in assessment, management, education, training, and research,2–5 and they remain among the …

Excess mortality in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: a preliminary report.

BACKGROUND Reports that death notices in the Times-Picayune, the New Orleans daily newspaper, increased dramatically in 2006 prompted local health officials to determine whether death notice surveillance could serve as a valid alternative means to confirm suspicions of excess mortality requiring immediate preventive actions and intervention. METHODS Monthly totals of death notices from the Times-Picayune were used to obtain frequency and proportion of deaths from January to June 2006. To validate this methodology the authors compared 2002 to 2003 monthly death frequency and proportions between death notices and top 10 causes of death from state vital statistics. RESULTS A significant (47%) increase in proportion of deaths was seen compared with the known baseline population. From January to June 2006, there were on average 1317 deaths notices per month for a mortality rate of 91.37 deaths per 100,000 population, compared with a 2002-2004 average of 924 deaths per month for a mortality rate of 62.17 deaths per 100,000 population. Differences between 2002 and 2003 death notices and top 10 causes of death were insignificant and had high correlation. DISCUSSION Death notices from local daily newspaper sources may serve as an alternative source of mortality information. Problems with delayed reporting, timely analysis, and interoperability between state and local health departments may be solved by the implementation of electronic death registration.

The Provision of Surgical Care by International Organizations in Developing Countries: A Preliminary Report

ObjectiveEmerging data demonstrate that a large fraction of the global burden of disease is amenable to surgical intervention. There is a paucity of data related to delivery of surgical care in low- and middle-income countries, and no aggregate data describe the efforts of international organizations to provide surgical care in these settings. This study was designed to describe the roles and practices of international organizations delivering surgical care in developing nations with regard to surgical types and volume, outcomes tracking, and degree of integration with local health systems.MethodsBetween October 2008 and December 2008, an Internet-based confidential questionnaire was distributed to 99 international organizations providing humanitarian surgical care to determine their size, scope, involvement in surgical data collection, and integration into local systems.ResultsForty-six international organizations responded (response rate 46%). Findings reveal that a majority of organizations that provide surgery track numbers of cases performed and immediate outcomes, such as mortality. In general, these groups have mechanisms in place to track volume and outcomes, provide for postintervention follow-up, are committed to providing education, and work in conjunction with local health organizations and providers. Whereas most organizations surveyed provided fewer than 500 surgical procedures annually, more than half had the capacity to provide emergency services. In addition, a great diversity of specialized surgical care was provided, including obstetrics, orthopedic, plastic, and ophthalmologic surgery.ConclusionsInternational organizations providing surgical services are diverse in size and breadth of surgical services provided yet, with consistency, provide rudimentary analysis, postoperative follow-up care, and both education and integration of health services at the local level. The role of international organizations in the delivery of surgery is an important index, worthy of further evaluation.

Acute-phase Mental Health Consequences of Disasters: Implications for Triage and Emergency Medical Services

Abstract [Burkle FM: Acute-phase mental health consequences of disasters: Implications for triage and emergency medical services. Ann Emerg Med August 1996;28:119-128.] See related editorial, External Emergency Medical Disaster Response: Does a Need Exist?

Iraq War mortality estimates: A systematic review

BackgroundIn March 2003, the United States invaded Iraq. The subsequent number, rates, and causes of mortality in Iraq resulting from the war remain unclear, despite intense international attention. Understanding mortality estimates from modern warfare, where the majority of casualties are civilian, is of critical importance for public health and protection afforded under international humanitarian law. We aimed to review the studies, reports and counts on Iraqi deaths since the start of the war and assessed their methodological quality and results.MethodsWe performed a systematic search of 15 electronic databases from inception to January 2008. In addition, we conducted a non-structured search of 3 other databases, reviewed study reference lists and contacted subject matter experts. We included studies that provided estimates of Iraqi deaths based on primary research over a reported period of time since the invasion. We excluded studies that summarized mortality estimates and combined non-fatal injuries and also studies of specific sub-populations, e.g. under-5 mortality. We calculated crude and cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence and average deaths per day for each study, where not already provided.ResultsThirteen studies met the eligibility criteria. The studies used a wide range of methodologies, varying from sentinel-data collection to population-based surveys. Studies assessed as the highest quality, those using population-based methods, yielded the highest estimates. Average deaths per day ranged from 48 to 759. The cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence ranged from 0.64 to 10.25 per 1,000 per year.ConclusionOur review indicates that, despite varying estimates, the mortality burden of the war and its sequelae on Iraq is large. The use of established epidemiological methods is rare. This review illustrates the pressing need to promote sound epidemiologic approaches to determining mortality estimates and to establish guidelines for policy-makers, the media and the public on how to interpret these estimates.

Disaster Triage Systems for Large-scale Catastrophic Events

Large-scale catastrophic events typically result in a scarcity of essential medical resources and accordingly necessitate the implementation of triage management policies to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality. Accomplishing this goal requires a reconceptualization of triage as a population-based systemic process that integrates care at all points of interaction between patients and the health care system. This system identifies at minimum 4 orders of contact: first order, the community; second order, prehospital; third order, facility; and fourth order, regional level. Adopting this approach will ensure that disaster response activities will occur in a comprehensive fashion that minimizes the patient care burden at each subsequent order of intervention and reduces the overall need to ration care. The seamless integration of all orders of intervention within this systems-based model of disaster-specific triage, coordinated through health emergency operations centers, can ensure that disaster response measures are undertaken in a manner that is effective, just, and equitable.