Fredrick H. M. Semazzi

ENSO signals in East African rainfall seasons

The evolutions of ENSO modes in the seasonal rainfall patterns over East Africa are examined in this study. The study covers the period 1961–1990. Both rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and simple correlation analyses were used to delineate a network of 136 stations over East Africa into homogeneous rainfall regions in order to derive rainfall indices. Time series generated from the delineated regions were later used in the rainfall/ENSO analyses. Such analyses involved the development of composite rainfall map patterns for El Nino and post-ENSO (+1) years in order to investigate the associations between seasonal evolution of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals and the space-time evolution of rainfall anomalies over the region. Analyses based on both EOF and simple correlation techniques yielded eight homogeneous rainfall regions over East Africa. The results showed unique seasonal evolution patterns in rainfall during the different phases of the ENSO cycles. East African rainfall performance characteristics were stratified to identify distinct rainfall anomaly patterns associated with ENSO and post-ENSO (+1) years. These can be applied in conjunction with skilful long lead (up to 12 months) ENSO prediction to provide guidance on likely patterns of seasonal rainfall anomalies over the region. Such information can be crucial for early warning of socio-economic disasters associated with extreme rainfall anomalies over East Africa. Copyright

Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountai...

Application of the NCAR Regional Climate Model to eastern Africa: 2. Simulation of interannual variability of short rains

We have applied the NCAR RegCM2 to the simulation of the interannual variability of precipitation over eastern Africa for the short-rains season by performing a set of experiments for the years 1982 to 1993. The model reproduced the observed interannual variability of precipitation in most of the years. The results show that remote factors play a dominant role in determining the precipitation anomalies. Interannual variability of precipitation over Tanzania is closely related to El Nino events in their mature phase and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The southward shift of the Arabian High results in a southward shift of the zonal component of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is responsible for early onset of the rainy season (e.g., 1982 and 1986). The enhanced St. Helena High and weaker Mascarene High lead to the eastward shift of the meridional branch of the ITCZ for the wet years. Model simulations confirmed a strong positive correlation between precipitation anomalies over Lake Victoria and the warm El Nino-Southern Oscillation events, by which enhanced moist westerly flow from the Atlantic Ocean and the mainly easterly flow from the Indian Ocean converge over Lake Victoria during wet years. The interannual variability of precipitation over Lake Victoria and the western Kenya Highlands (WKH) are strongly coupled. Positive precipitation anomalies over the WKH region are usually associated with weaker Arabian High and Mascarene High, which weaken the large-scale divergence over the WKH region and favor the development of convection. The interannual variability of precipitation over eastern Kenya Highlands (EKH) is not directly related to the El Nino events, but the association with a warm SST anomaly pattern over the western Indian Ocean is evident during wet years. An El Nino signal is, however, evident for wet years over the Turkana Channel, warm SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean contribute enhanced water vapor transport over the region.

Application of the NCAR regional climate model to eastern Africa: 1. Simulation of the short rains of 1988

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Regional Climate Model (RegCM2) is employed to investigate the physical mechanisms that govern the October-December rains over eastern Africa. The model employs the Mercator conformai projection, with a domain of 5580 km × 5040 km centered at 31°E, 4°S, and a horizontal grid point spacing of 60 km. The simulation period is October-December 1988, and the model initial and lateral boundary conditions are taken from ECMWF reanalysis. A number of month-long simulations have been conducted to optimize various parameterizations of the model which include the following factors: cumulus convection, moisture parameterization, radiative transfer formulation, surface processes, boundary layer physics, and the lateral boundary conditions. The model was successfully customized over eastern Africa. The model simulates the large-scale circulation characteristics over the region as well as local features such as the dominant precipitation maxima, the Turkana low-level jet, and the diurnal reversal in the lake/land breeze circulation over Lake Victoria. Several model deficiencies are also identified. They include a negative rainfall bias over the western portions of the domain and the Kenya Highlands and a temperature bias over the tropical forest regions. Systematic analysis of surface water budget reveals that evapotranspiration is a major sink in the water budget over the regions where precipitation is moderate or small, while the role of runoff and drainage becomes important over the regions where precipitation is abundant. The model simulations also suggest that during the short-rains season, the large-scale circulation anomalies play the most important role in shaping the precipitation anomalies.

Simulated Physical Mechanisms Associated with Climate Variability over Lake Victoria Basin in East Africa

Abstract A fully coupled regional climate, 3D lake modeling system is used to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with the multiscale variability of the Lake Victoria basin climate. To examine the relative influence of different processes on the lake basin climate, a suite of model experiments were performed by smoothing topography around the lake basin, altering lake surface characteristics, and reducing or increasing the amount of large-scale moisture advected into the lake region through the four lateral boundaries of the model domain. Simulated monthly mean rainfall over the basin is comparable to the satellite (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) estimates. Peaks between midnight and early morning hours characterize the simulated diurnal variability of rainfall over the four quadrants of the lake, consistent with satellite estimates, although the simulated peaks occur a little earlier. It is evident in the simulations with smoothed topography that the upslope/downslope flow generated by t...

Customization of RegCM3 Regional Climate Model for Eastern Africa and a Tropical Indian Ocean Domain

Rainfall is a driving factor of climate in the tropics and needs to be properly represented within a climate model. This study customizes the precipitation processes over the tropical regions of eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3). The convective schemes of Grell with closures Arakawa–Schubert (Grell–AS)/Fritch–Chappel (Grell–FC) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology–Emanuel (MIT–EMAN) were compared to determine the most realistic spatial distribution of rainfall and partitioning of convective/stratiform rainfall when compared to observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Both Grell–AS and Grell–FC underpredicted convective rainfall rates over land, while over the ocean Grell–FC (Grell–AS) over- (under-) estimates convective rainfall. MIT–EMAN provides the most realistic pardoning and spatial distribution of convective rainfall despite the tendency for overestimating total rainfall. MIT–EMAN was used to further customize the subgrid explicit moisture scheme (SUBEX). Sensitivity tests were performed on the gridbox relative humidity threshold for cloudiness (RHmin) and the autoconversion scale factor (Cacs). An RHmin value of 60% (RHmin-60) reduced the amount of total rainfall over five heterogeneous rainfall regions in eastern Africa, with most of the reduction coming from the convective rainfall. Then, Cacs sensitivity tests improved upon the total rainfall amounts and convective stratiform partitioning compared to RHmin-60. Based upon all sensitivity simulations performed, the combination of the MIT–EMAN convective scheme, RHmin-60, and halving the model default value (0.4) of Cacs provided the most realistic simulation in terms of spatial distribution, convective partition, rainfall totals, and temperature bias when compared to observations.

A GCM Study of the Teleconnections between the Continental Climate of Africa and Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Abstract In this case study the role of global SST anomaly forcing in promoting the extreme climatic conditions that prevailed in Africa during the years of 1950 and 1973 is examined. In 1950 abundant rainfall was observed over tropical Africa, particularly over the Sahel and Southern Africa. By contrast, in 1973, this rainfall anomaly pattern was characterized by the opposite phase, with most of the continent experiencing severe droughts. The primary research vehicle in this investigation is the standard version of the NCAR CCMI GCM with horizontal resolution of rhomboidal spectral truncation at wavenumber 15 (R15). Two separate 10-yr simulations based on the 1950 and 1973 observed sea surface temperature (SST) have been performed. The empirical orthogonal functions method is employed to isolate the annual cycle harmonies in the data and also to remove statistical noise. The filtered seasonal rainfall fields for the model and the observations are compared to investigate the response of the African contin...

Empirical Analysis of Intraseasonal Climate Variability over the Greater Horn of Africa

Abstract This study examines the intraseasonal climate variability over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during the rainy season of October–December (OND). The investigation is primarily based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the pentad Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data for the period 1979–2001. The EOF analysis reveals two dominant modes of intraseasonal variability for the OND season: mixed El Nino–Southern Oscillation–Indian Ocean dipole (ENSO-IOD) and a decadal mode. The leading mode is associated with ENSO–IOD covariability. Case studies of several intraseasonal ENSO–IOD events within the recent decades indicate that during the warm (positive) events pentad rainfall is consistently above normal during the entire season despite fluctuations between pentads. However, case study analyses of negative ENSO–IOD events show that the negative cases are not mirror images of the warm events. The negative events exhibit pronounced wet and dry spells superim...

Mechanistic Model Simulations of the East African Climate Using NCAR Regional Climate Model: Influence of Large-Scale Orography on the Turkana Low-Level Jet

Abstract The National Center for Atmospheric Research regional climate model (RegCM) is employed to study the dynamics of the Turkana low-level jet that lies between the Ethiopian and the East African highlands, and also investigate the mechanisms responsible for the observed dry conditions over the Lake Turkana basin that lies in the wider section of the Turkana channel. The role of the large-scale orography and two other forcing factors namely the large-scale monsoonal flow and the Turkana channel depth are investigated in order to understand the kinematics of the jet. The simulated patterns of the Turkana easterly low-level jet compares well with its observed characteristics. Strong winds are indicated in the channel throughout the study period of October to December, with the wind speed decreasing in the middle and wider region of the channel. A split in the jet core is also shown in the middle of the channel. The level of maximum winds (∼11 m s−1) occurs in the layers 930-hPa and 650-hPa levels. The ...

A low communication and large time step explicit finite-volume solver for non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamics

An explicit finite-volume solver is proposed for numerical simulation of non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamics with promise for efficiency on massively parallel machines via low communication needs and large time steps. Solving the governing equations with a single stage lowers communication, and using the method of characteristics to follow information as it propagates enables large time steps. Using a non-oscillatory interpolant, the method is stable without post-hoc filtering. Characteristic variables (built from interface flux vectors) are integrated upstream from interfaces along their trajectories to compute time-averaged fluxes over a time step. Thus we call this method a Flux-Based Characteristic Semi-Lagrangian (FBCSL) method. Multidimensionality is achieved via a second-order accurate Strang operator splitting. Spatial accuracy is achieved via the third- to fifth-order accurate Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) interpolant.We implement the theory to form a 2-D non-hydrostatic compressible (Euler system) atmospheric model in which standard test cases confirm accuracy and stability. We maintain stability with time steps larger than CFL=1 (CFL number determined by the acoustic wave speed, not advection) but note that accuracy degrades unacceptably for most cases with CFL>2. For the smoothest test case, we ran out to CFL=7 to investigate the error associated with simulation at large CFL number time steps. Analysis suggests improvement of trajectory computations will improve error for large CFL numbers.