Fredrik Wulfsberg

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the OECD

Recent microeconomic studies have documented extensive downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) for job stayers in many OECD countries, but critics argue that the effect might be undone by compositional changes and flexibility in wages of new entrants. Using data for hourly nominal wages at industry level, we explore the existence of DNWR on industry wages in 19 OECD countries, over the period 1973-1999. We propose a novel method to detect DNWR. We reject the hypothesis of no DNWR in the overall sample. The fraction of wage cuts prevented due to DNWR has fallen over time, from 61 percent in the 1970s to 16 percent in the late 1990s, but the number of industries affected by DNWR has increased. DNWR is more prevalent when unemployment is low and union density is high. Strict employment protection legislation also leads to fewer wage cuts.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Disaggregate Survey Data

We construct factor models based on disaggregate survey data for forecasting national aggregate macroeconomic variables. Our methodology applies regional and sectoral factor models to Norges Bank’s regional survey and to the Swedish Business Tendency Survey. The analysis identifies which of the pieces of information extracted from the individual regions in Norges Bank’s survey and the sectors for the two surveys perform particularly well at forecasting different variables at various horizons. The results show that several factor models beat an autoregressive benchmark in forecasting inflation and the unemployment rate. However, the factor models are most successful at forecasting GDP growth. Forecast combinations using the past performances of regional and sectoral factor models yield the most accurate forecasts in the majority of the cases.

Wage Rigidity, Inflation, and Institutions ∗

We study the possible existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) at wage growth rates different from zero in aggregate data. Even if DNWR prevails at zero for individual workers, compositional effects might lead to falling aggregate wages, while changes in relative wages combined with DNWR might lead to positive aggregate wage growth. We explore industry data for 19 OECD countries, over the 1971–2006 period. We find evidence for a floor on nominal wage growth at 6 percent in the 1970s and 1980s, at 1 percent in the 1990s, and at 0.5 percent in the 2000s. Furthermore, we find that DNWR is stronger in country-years with strict employment protection legislation, high union density, centralized wage setting, and high inflation.

How strong is the case for downward real wage rigidity

This paper explores the existence of downward real wage rigidity (DRWR) in 19 OECD countries, over the period 1973-1999, using data for hourly nominal earnings at the industry level. Based on a nonparametric statistical method, which allows for country- and year-specific variation in both the median and the dispersion of industry wage changes, we find evidence of some DRWR in OECD countries overall, as well as for specific geographical regions and time periods. There is some evidence that real wage cuts are less prevalent in countries with strict employment protection legislation and high union density. Generally, we find stronger evidence for downward nominal wage rigidity than for downward real wage rigidity.

Inflation and Price Adjustments: Evidence from Norwegian Consumer Price Data 1975-2004

I document the frequency and size of price adjustments using thirty years of monthly data covering both high- and low-inflation periods. Prices increase more frequently in smaller amounts when inflation is high, and less frequently but in larger amounts when inflation is low. A novel decomposition of the inflation rate shows that when inflation is high and volatile the frequency of price changes is more important for the variation in inflation than is the magnitude of price changes. When inflation is low and stable the magnitude of the price changes is more important. Monetary policy analysis assuming an exogenous probability of changing prices are thus subject to the Lucas critique.