Fredy Kristjanpoller Rodriguez

Reliability Stochastic Modeling for Repairable Physical Assets

The reliability modeling, calculating, and projecting for industrial equipment and systems are today a basic and fundamental task for reliability and maintenance engineers, regardless of the nature or genetics of those industrial assets. In this paper, the stochastic models Perfect Renewal Process (PRP), Nonhomogeneous Processes of Poison (NHPP), and GRP are explained in detail with the corresponding conceptual, mathematical, and stochastic development. For each model, the respective conceptualization and parameterization is analyzed in detail. The practical application is developed for a real case in the mining industry, which shows step by step the appropriate stochastic and mathematical development. Finally, this research becomes an analytical and explanatory procedure on the definition, calculation, methodology, and criteria to be considered for industrial assets parameterization with partial or null post maintenance degradation.

Propuesta metodológica para aumentar el grado de comprensión de un sistema complejo mejorando el proceso de toma de decisión

This paper deals with the formalization of knowledge of an organization, the structuring of a suitable logic sequence and the processing to achieve the applicability of this knowledge in the practical field for the organization. All this is done through a methodological proposal that allows increasing the organizational knowledge, which is based on the information found in the organization’s computer systems as well as on the knowledge and experience of experts, generating significant synergies. The motivation to develop this paper comes from the need to align organizational goals with the knowledge of the people and data in information systems related to the field of asset management and maintenance. This methodological proposal uses a recursive process of knowledge generation, where the iteration of processes and the permanent consultation regarding compliance with the objectives, generate a cyclic process whose results are materialized in a conceptual model that contains qualitative and quantitative information, in order to increase the understanding of the system.This paper deals with the formalization of knowledge of an organization, the structuring of a suitable logic sequence and the processing to achieve the applicability of this knowledge in the practical field for the organization. All this is done through a methodological proposal that allows increasing the organizational knowledge, which is based on the information found in the organization’s computer systems as well as on the knowledge and experience of experts, generating significant synergies. The motivation to develop this paper comes from the need to align organizational goals with the knowledge of the people and data in information systems related to the field of asset management and maintenance. This methodological proposal uses a recursive process of knowledge generation, where the iteration of processes and the permanent consultation regarding compliance with the objectives, generate a cyclic process whose results are materialized in a conceptual model that contains qualitative and quantitative information, in order to increase the understanding of the system. Key Words: Conceptual Model, Transformation of Data into Information, Understanding of Complex Systems.

MODELADO ESTOCÁSTICO DE CONFIABILIDAD PARA ACTIVOS FÍSICOS REPARABLES. CASO DE ESTUDIO APLICADO A LA MINERÍA CHILENA

Modelar, calcular y proyectar la confiabilidad de equipos y sistemas industriales es una tarea basica y fundamental hoy en dia para los ingenieros de confiabilidad y mantenimiento, independiente de la naturaleza o genetica de estos activos industriales. En el presente articulo se explican en detalle los modelos estocasticos PRP, NHPP y GRP, con el desarrollo conceptual, matematico y estocastico segun corresponda. Para cada modelo se analiza en detalle la respectiva conceptualizacion y parametrizacion. La aplicacion practica se desarrolla para un caso real en la industria mineria que evidencia paso a paso el desarrollo matematico y estocastico segun corresponda. Esta investigacion finalmente se transforma en un procedimiento analitico y explicativo sobre la definicion, metodologia de calculo y criterios que deben ser considerados para parametrizar activos industriales con degradacion nula o parcial post mantenimiento. Palabras Clave: Confiabilidad, Degradacion, Activos Reparables, Simulacion.

PROPUESTA METODOLÓGICA PARA AUMENTAR EL APRENDIZAJE ORGANIZACIONAL EN BASE AL CONOCIMIENTO DE EXPERTOS Y A LOS SISTEMAS DE INFORMACIÓN EN LA GESTIÓN DE ACTIVOS Y MANTENIMIENTO

This paper deals with the formalization of knowledge of an organization, the structuring of a suitable logic sequence and the processing to achieve the applicability of this knowledge in the practical field for the organization. All this is done through a methodological proposal that allows increasing the organizational knowledge, which is based on the information found in the organization’s computer systems as well as on the knowledge and experience of experts, generating significant synergies. The motivation to develop this paper comes from the need to align organizational goals with the knowledge of the people and data in information systems related to the field of asset management and maintenance. This methodological proposal uses a recursive process of knowledge generation, where the iteration of processes and the permanent consultation regarding compliance with the objectives, generate a cyclic process whose results are materialized in a conceptual model that contains qualitative and quantitative information, in order to increase the understanding of the system.

Economic Impact of a Failure Using Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

This chapter aims to investigate technical and economic factors related to failure costs (non reliability costs) within the life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) of a production asset. Life-cycle costing is a well-established method used to evaluate alternative asset options. It is a structured approach that addresses all the elements of this cost and can be used to produce a spend profile of the assets over its anticipated life span. The results of an LCC analysis can be used to assist management in the decision-making process where there is a choice of options. The main costs can be classified as the ‘capital expenditure’ (CAPEX) incurred when the asset is purchased, and the ‘operating expenditure’ (OPEX) incurred throughout the asset’s life. This chapter will explore different aspects related to the “failure costs” within the LCCA, and will describe the most important aspects of the stochastic model called: Non-homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). This model will be used to estimate the frequency of failures and the impact that could cause diverse failures in the total costs of a production asset. This paper also contains a case study for the Rail Freight Industry (Chile) and in the Oil Industry (PETRONOX, Venezuela) where the above-mentioned model and concepts will be applied, and respectively compared in terms of results. Finally, the model presented provides maintenance managers with a decision tool that optimizes the LCCA of an asset and will increase the efficiency of the decision-making process related to the control of failures.

Expected Impact Quantification Based on Reliability Assessment

Currently, a lack of interpretation tools and methodologies hinders the ability to assess the performance of a single piece of equipment or a total system. Therefore, a reliability, availability and maintenance (RAM) analysis must be combined with a quantitative reliability impact analysis to interpret the actual performance and to identify bottlenecks and improvement opportunities. This paper proposes a novel methodology that uses RAM analysis to quantify the expected impact. The strengths of the failure-expected impact methodology include its ability to systematically and quantitatively assess the expected impact in terms of RAM indicators and the logical configuration of subsystems and individual equipment, which show the direct effects of each element on the total system. This proposed analysis complements plant modelling and analysis. Determining the operational effectiveness impact, as the final result of the computation process, enables the quantitative and unequivocal prioritization of the system elements by assessing the associated loss as a “production loss” regarding its unavailability and effect on the system process. The Chilean Copper Smelting Process study provides useful results for developing a hierarchization that enables an analysis of improvement actions that are aligned with the best opportunities.

CRITERIOS DE DECISIÓN PARA SELECCIONAR ADECUADAMENTE LA HERRAMIENTA DE ANÁLISIS DE CRITICIDAD

The occurrence of events associated to failures in any industrial plant may lead to some increases in overall cost (direct or indirect cost) in the production process. In order to assess and rank events associated with failures, those criteria of importance will depend on the organization and its context. The most used criteria are: Safety, Environment, Production, Costs, Failure Frequency and Mean Time To Repair. Therefore, it is necessary to identify those processes, areas, equipment and components that generate a higher impact on the occurrence of failure or, in other words, those which are potentially critical, where their impact refers to the degree in which the occurrence of the failure may affect the process continuity.

PROPUESTA METODOLÓGICA PARA LA EVALUACIÓN DEL IMPACTO ESPERADO DE FALLOS EN EQUIPOS COMPLEJOS. CASO APLICADO A UNA PLANTA DE TRITURACIÓN DE MINERAL DE COBRE

Analysis of the reliability and maintainability of a production process is relevant to the determination of availability and the capacity of the plant. In order to quantify the importance of each equipment in the systemic availability and improve decision-making related to asset management, it is proposed a new analysis tool: the methodology of the Expected Impact of Fault (IEF). It has as main novelty quantifying indicators of the real influence of each element in the total reliability/availability of the productive system. This is applicable in any logical functional configuration. In this way the importance of the equipment is set and is quantified more accurately the impact of his possible unavailability. The methodology starts with the management of the process data to analyze, and then proceeds to develop an analysis based on the classical technique of block diagram of reliability (RBD), which structure the teams according to their functional configuration by levels, in ascending order, to determine the availability of each item and of the system in general. Subsequently, IEF methodology makes descendant analysis, from the availability of the system to the impact of each element in particular in the expected availability of the system. This impact is expressed through indicators of Propagation of the Time of Failure (FPD) and the index of Expected Impact of Operational Criticality (ICO) of an element on the whole of the system. The use of these indicators has shown important results to evaluate the design and performance of a plant. In this case the methodology is applied to the actual data of a plants crushing of a mining process.

METODOLOGIA PARA AUDITAR LA ASIGNACION DE RECURSOS A LAS ACTIVIDADES DE MANTENIMIENTO

RESUMEN: Este articulo propone una metodologia de auditoria disenada para proporcionar ahorros en la asignacion de recursos para el mantenimiento, en forma de actividades, tiempo, mano de obra, repuestos y costos directos de las acciones correctivas y preventivas. Por medio de graficos, esta metodologia de auditoria analiza los recursos asignados a las acciones de mantenimiento, y su consistencia en terminos de indisponibilidad y de riesgo para los modos de fallo criticos. La descripcion de la metodologia se realiza mediante un diagrama BPMN, incluyendo un formulario que resume los datos de entrada requeridos. Esta metodologia de auditoria puede ser aplicada de forma independiente, para colaborar en el cumplimiento de los objetivos de organizacionales, o como parte de un sistema de gestion de activos, como seria el estandar PAS 55. Palabras clave: auditoria, asignacion, recursos, mantenimiento, BPMN, criticidad, priorizacion, repuestos