Frits Bos

Uses of National Accounts; History, International Standardization and Applications in the Netherlands

The national accounts is commonly known by its key-aggregates (e.g. GDP and saving) and their role in public debate and decision-making. However, the national accounts plays many different roles for many different uses. This paper provides an overview of the development of these roles and uses since the seventeenth century. Three periods are distinguished: the early estimates (1660-1930), revolutionary decades (1930-1950) and the era of the international guidelines (1950-present). The paper discusses these roles and uses also much more in detail for one country: the Netherlands, a country which played an important role in modern national accounting and where expert data users, like the CPB, SCP and the Dutch central bank, have developed several interesting applications of the national accounts.

Standard National Accounting Concepts, Economic Theory and Data Compilation Issues; on Constancy and Change in the Un-Manuals on National Accounting (1947, 1953, 1968, 1993)

In this paper, the four successive guidelines of the United Nations on national accounting are discussed in view of economic theory (Keynesian analysis, welfare, Hicksian income, input-output analysis, etc.) and data compilation issues (e.g. the link with concepts in administrative data sources). The new guidelines of the EC should complement those of the UN and be simpler and more cost-efficient. It should define a balanced set of operational concepts and tables that is attainable for most EC countries within 5 years.

Deregulation and Economic Statistics: Europe 1992

The consequences of deregulation for economic statistics are discussed with a view to Europe 1992. In particular, the effects of the introduction of the Intrastat-system for statistics on international trade are investigated. It is argued that if the Statistical Offices of the EC-countries do no respond adequately, Europe 1992 will lead to a deterioration of economic statistics in several respects: they will become less reliable, less cost effective and less balanced.

Evaluating Election Platforms: A Task for Fiscal Councils? Scope and Rules of the Game in View of 25 Years of Dutch Practice

In some countries - the Netherlands, UK and USA - the expected economic implications of election platforms of political parties are evaluated by independent economic institutions prior to the election. This paper analyzes the merits and limitations of this process, taking 25 years of Dutch experience as a point of reference. In particular in times of financial crisis and unsustainable public finance, evaluation of election platforms can serve as a disciplining device for unrealistic or (time) inconsistent promises by politicians. More in general, it can help political parties to credibly inform voters about the implications of their platforms, to design more efficient policies and to reach consensus on them. It can also create a level playing field for political parties not represented in the government, in particular those with limited resources for economic information and expertise. However, there may be adverse effects, in particular when trade-offs are presented in an unbalanced way or when the rules of the evaluation provide too much room for gaming and free lunches.

Fiscal Decentralisation in the Netherlands: History, Current Practice and Economic Theory

This paper describes and discusses the division of tasks between Dutch central and local government and their financing in view of economic theory. The paper starts with an overview of the first and second generation theories of fiscal decentralisation. This theoretical perspective is used for analysing the history of Dutch fiscal decentralisation and the current tasks and financing of Dutch municipalities and provinces. What went wrong with the famous Dutch Republic of United Provinces, the first federal state in modern history? Should Dutch municipalities increase further in scale, like their counterparts in Denmark? Is the Dutch government right in wanting to abolish city-regions? Is there still a role for Dutch provinces in spatial planning?

The Future of the National Accounts

This paper discusses the future of the national accounts in view of four trends: globalisation, regionalisation like the European unification (regional blocks), atuomation and more market-oriented government. Each trend will be discussed starting from recent developments in national accounting. National accounts statistics will continue their role as a central overview statistic on national economies and become more internationally standardized with respect to concepts, data quality and range of national accounts statistics published. However, links to current policy issues (e.g. environment, social security, human capital) and specific data needs should be improved. National accounts statistics should also be made more transparant and attractive. Research is in particular required on the use and misuse of national accounts statistics and on improving compilation methods.

Meaning and Measurement of National Accounts Statistics

This paper provides an introductory overview of the meaning and measurement of national accounts statistics. Attention is paid to the various uses of national accounts, the role of the international guidelines, the relationship with economic theoretic and administrative concepts and the measurement practice. The latter is also compared with compiling other statistics, econometric modelling and a barometer: what are the similarities and differences?

The World's Oldest Fiscal Watchdog: CPB's Analyses Foster Consensus on Economic Policy

The sovereign debt problems in European countries have increased the interest in fiscal watchdogs. This paper discusses the world’s oldest fiscal watchdog, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). CPB was founded directly after World War II. It has built a reputation of independence and quality, while it has also achieved a solid position in Dutch policy making. CPB provides (i) the macroeconomic forecast underlying the annual budget, (ii) a midterm review of the state of public finance at the start of each election cycle, (iii) cost-benefit analyses of all kind of policy proposals (from education to physical infrastructure), and (iv) an assessment of the economic impact of the platforms of political parties before the election. Four lessons can be drawn from 65 years of Dutch experience. Firstly, a reputation of quality and independence is crucial for the success of a watchdog. Building such a reputation takes time. Secondly, the scope of activities should not be limited to fiscal policy only. The broad scope of CPB’s analyses has contributed to shared public understanding of relevant trade-offs and policy options. Thirdly, the effectiveness of CPB depends crucially on a clear demarcation of the distinctive roles of CPB and political parties. Welfare theory provides little guidance in drawing this demarcation line. Fourthly, being part of the government has the advantage of getting inside information and being effective in the daily policy making process, but the disadvantage that the actual or perceived independence is more difficult to maintain.

A National Accounts Satellite for Human Capital and Education

The official national accounts statistics do not show the role of human capital in the national economy. A set of satellite tables supplementing the standard national accounts statistics could serve this data need. In this satellite account, expenditure on education and training are recorded as human capital formation. This includes not only the expenditure on primary, secondary and tertiary education, but also expenditure on training and courses by employers and the earnings foregone by students. Consumption of human capital is allocated to various persons and industries as a charge on their income; it is not part of final consumption expenditure. The satellite shows more comprehensively than OECD Education at a Glance who pays for human capital formation. It also shows how education and training are employed in the national economy. In line with calculations of private and social rates of return, taxes and subsides on labour income and the relative prices of various types of labour (high-skilled, medium-skilled, low-skilled) are also shown. Links could be made with labour accounts broken-down by level of education, productivity and growth accounts and tables on expenditure by function of government, households and corporations. A simple decomposition analysis can show the role of demography and participation rates in the development of public expenditure on education. The satellite could be regarded as a macroeconomic framework supplementing the OECD-statistic Education at a Glance.

ESA 2010 Chapter 12 Quarterly Accounts

This chapter of the new European guidelines on national accounting (ESA 2010) sets out the major principles and characteristics of quarterly national accounts, like seasonal adjustments.