Fumihiko Imamura

DEVELOPING FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS FOR TSUNAMI DAMAGE ESTIMATION USING NUMERICAL MODEL AND POST-TSUNAMI DATA FROM BANDA ACEH, INDONESIA

Fragility functions, as new measures for estimating structural damage and casualties due to tsunami attack, are developed by an integrated approach using numerical modeling of tsunami inundation and GIS analysis of post-tsunami survey data of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake tsunami disaster, obtained from Banda Aceh, Indonesia. The fragility functions are expressed as the damage probabilities of structures or death ratio with regard to the hydrodynamic features of tsunami inundation flow, such as inundation depth, current velocity and hydrodynamic force. They lead to the new understandings of the relationship between local vulnerability and tsunami hazard in a quantitative manner.

Tsunami in Papua New Guinea was as intense as first thought

Last Julys tsunami in Papua New Guinea was as intense and catastrophic as news reports indicated, a scientific survey has found, and recommendations have been put forth to avert such a disaster in the future. The tsunami and the earthquake that generated it occurred July 17, 1998, and the International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) began a weeklong investigation July 31. It was the ninth major tsunami and the most devastating the team has studied in the past 6 years. The team was able to precisely map the inundation and determine that media reports of extreme flows to fairly small sections of shoreline were accurate. Wave heights of 10 m were confirmed along a 25-km stretch of coastline with maximum heights of 15 m and overland flow velocities of 15–20 m/s. Both are extreme measurements, given the moderate size of the earthquake and its aftershocks.The team noted that the force of a tsunami current on an object is roughly 1000 times that of a wind of the same speed.

Giant landslides, mega-tsunamis, and paleo-sea level in the Hawaiian Islands

Abstract Landslide tsunami simulations have advanced to the point where the tsunamigenic potential of giant submarine landslides (GSL) can be affirmed, while the subsidence history of different Hawaiian Islands is still subject to debate. We show that mega-tsunamis are a sufficient explanation for the observed pattern of debris height of calcareous marine deposits on some of the Hawaiian Islands. Further, our tsunami simulations, using the Alika GSL as example, can be used to reduce the considerable uncertainty in subsidence history of the different Hawaiian Islands, a current obstacle to interpreting the deposits from large waves. We also show that the onset of interglacials provides a probable explanation for the timing of these giant landslides over at least the last five million years. The climate change mechanism both explains the confusion with eustatic sea-level rise and provides a reasonable triggering mechanism for giant landslides from oceanic island volcanoes.

Near-field tsunami forecasting from cabled ocean bottom pressure data

[1] We propose a method for near-field tsunami forecasting from data acquired by cabled offshore ocean bottom tsunami meters (OBTMs) in real time. We first invert tsunami waveforms recorded at OBTMs to estimate the spatial distribution of initial sea-surface displacements in the tsunami source region without making any assumptions about fault geometry and earthquake magnitude. Then, we synthesize the coastal tsunami waveforms from the estimated sea-surface displacement distribution. To improve the reliability of the tsunami forecasting, we use updated OBTM data to repeat the forecast calculation at 1-min intervals. We tested our method by simulating the 1896 Sanriku tsunami earthquake, which caused a devastating tsunami with maximum runup height of 38 m along the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. Instead of real OBTM records, proxies were used. The simulation demonstrated that our method provided accurate estimations of coastal arrival times and amplitudes of the first peak of the tsunami more than 20 min before the maximum amplitude wave reached the coastal site nearest to the source. We also applied the method to real data of a small tsunami that was caused by a local earthquake and successfully forecasted the tsunami at coastal tide stations. We found that accuracy of our estimated coastal tsunami amplitudes can be affected by the spatial relationship between the tsunami source and the offshore observation stations. Our numerical simulation showed that even more accurate tsunami amplitude forecasts would be achieved by deployment of additional offshore stations separated by a distance comparable to the trench-parallel length of the tsunami source.

Discovery of Minoan tsunami deposits

The Hellenic arc is a terrane of extensive Quaternary volcanism. One of the main centers of explosive eruptions is located on Thera (Santorini), and the eruption of the Thera volcano in late Minoan time (1600–1300 B.C.) is considered to have been the most significant Aegean explosive volcanism during the late Holocene. The last eruptive phase of Thera resulted in an enormous submarine caldera, which is believed to have produced tsunamis on a large scale. Evidence suggesting seawater inundation was found previously at some archaeological sites on the coast of Crete; however, the cause of the tsunami and its effects on the area have not been well understood. On the Aegean Sea coast of western Turkey (Didim and Fethye) and Crete (Gouves), we have found traces of tsunami deposits related to the Thera eruption. The sedimentological consequences and the hydraulics of a Thera-caused tsunami indicate that the eruption of Thera volcano was earlier than the previous estimates and the tsunami did not have disruptive influence on Minoan civilization.

Tsunamis in the Sea of Marmara: Historical documents for the past, models for the future

Abstract More than 30 tsunami events have impacted the coasts of the Sea of Marmara in the past two millennium, clustering in Izmit Bay, the shores of Istanbul, Gemlik Bay, the shores of the Kapidag and Gelibolu Peninsulas. With respect to the last well-known tsunami, the Izmit tsunami of 17 August, 1999, available field survey run-up data and marine surveys provide an opportunity to evaluate how these events were triggered. The main purpose of this study is to determine the slope failure potential as a possible tsunamigenic source in the Sea of Marmara by utilising multi-beam bathymetry, shallow and deep seismic reflection data. On the basis of the landslide geomorphology, the generation, propagation and coastal amplifications of tsunamis related to earthquake and slope failure scenarios were tested by using tsunami simulation model TWO_LAYER. The maximum water surface elevations near the shores along the north and south coasts are obtained according to the selected scenarios of tsunami generation by using available data.

The Flores Island tsunamis

On December 12, 1992, at 5:30 A.M. GMT, an earthquake of magnitude Ms 7.5 struck the eastern region of Flores Island, Indonesia (Figure 1), a volcanic island located just at the transition between the Sunda and Banda Island arc systems. The local newspaper reported that 25-m high tsunamis struck the town of Maumere, causing substantial casualties and property damage. On December 16, television reports broadcast in Japan via satellite reported that 1000 people had been killed in Maumere and twothirds of the population of Babi Island had been swept away by the tsunamis. The current toll of the Flores earthquake is 2080 deaths and 2144 injuries, approximately 50% of which are attributed to the tsunamis. A tsunami survey plan was initiated within 3 days of the earthquake, and a cooperative international survey team was formed with four scientists from Indonesia, nine from Japan, three from the United States, one from the United Kingdom, and one from Korea.

DAMAGE CHARACTERISTIC AND FIELD SURVEY OF THE 2011 GREAT EAST JAPAN TSUNAMI IN MIYAGI PREFECTURE

On March 11th, 2011, the Pacific coast of Japan was hit by a tsunami generated by the largest earthquake (M9.0) in the history of the country and causing a wide range of devastating damage. Using preliminary reported data from many sources, some topics such as tsunami fatality ratio and tsunami fragility curves for structural damage are discussed and compared with other countries. This paper aims to discuss the damage characteristics of this tsunami as well as its mechanism, as observed through field surveys conducted over the 4 months following the tsunami. The field survey covers 13 areas in the Miyagi prefecture from Kesennuma city in the northernmost region to Yamamoto town in the southernmost region. The arrival time of the first tsunami along the coastal areas in the Miyagi prefecture was confirmed by stopped clocks found during the survey. The damage mechanism of coastal structures such as breakwaters, seawalls, tsunami gates, and evacuation buildings was investigated and discussed. Damage characteristics for each area, i.e., urban areas, port, coastal structures, fisheries, and agricultural areas, were also summarized. The conclusions drawn from the data analysis suggest that experience and education (soft countermeasures) are important to reduce the loss of life, as shown for example in the Sanriku area. The field surveys indicate that wood and reinforced-concrete (RC) structures should be balanced to survive both earthquake and tsunami forces, and the structural design for buildings should be reconsidered after the example in Onagawa town. In addition, coastal structures for tsunami countermeasures (hard countermeasures) should be more properly designed for survival instead of becoming floating debris upon being overturned by a tsunami. The combination of both hard and soft measures is especially necessary for optimizing the outcomes following a great disaster. These recommendations should be taken into consideration in the reconstruction efforts for better tsunami countermeasures in the future.

Sequence of sedimentation processes caused by the 1992 Flores tsunami: Evidence from Babi Island

Sedimentation processes caused by a modern tsunami have been discussed from the point of view of geologic and numerical investigations of the 1992 Flores tsunami in Indonesia. Geologic evidence on Babi Island shows an invasion of two waves of different direction and magnitude, which resulted in widespread deposition of marine sand on the north and south-southwest shores. On the latter, coarse and well-sorted carbonate sand containing molluscan shells suggests that much more destructive waves swept across the southern coast, as compared with the northern coast, where the deposit included medium carbonate sand with a silty component. A physical explanation for such destructive waves on the southern coast of Babi is provided by a numerical simulation of the tsunami generation and propagation. The geologic and numerical results indicate that an isolated island surrounded by a circular shoreline or reef edge will be subject to the most destructive waves on the coast on the back side of the island relative to the tsunami source.

Tsunami field survey of the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake

An earthquake with surface magnitude (Ms ) 7.0 occurred 100 km off the Nicaraguan coast on September 2, 1992 (GMT). Despite its moderate size, this earthquake generated a sizable tsunami, which caused extensive damage along the coast of Nicaragua. In late September, about 170 people, mostly children, were listed dead or missing; 500 were listed injured; and over 13,000 were listed homeless, with more than 1500 homes destroyed. Damage was the most significant since the 1983 Japan Sea earthquake tsunami, which killed 100 people in Japan. The Flores (Indonesia) earthquake and tsunami of December 12, 1992, were more destructive than the Nicaragua or Japan Sea events.