Furio Camillo Rosati

Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA

This study uses new theories of capital accumulation and fertility in a comparative framework to test predictions with time-series data for Germany, Italy, the UK, and the US. The exogenous-fertility model is based on models of Barro and Becker. The endogenous-fertility models are based on models of Veall and Nishimura and Zhang. It is assumed that life cycle periods are youth, middle age, and old age. Several theoretical frameworks are tested with endogenous and exogenous fertility and altruism and nonaltruism. Data are obtained during 1950-90. Dependent variables are the total lifetime fertility rate and real per capita household savings. Explanatory variables include social security, the real social security deficit per capita, the real rate of interest, the real per capita disposable income, the average male real wage rate, the average female real wage rate, and the real child benefit rate. The explanatory variables are individually graphed to show differences by country over time. Findings suggest that fertility is endogenous in a nonaltruistic model. The only model not rejected by the data was the model in which fertility and intergenerational transfers were explained by nonaltruistic concerns. Fertility was positively affected by the male wage rate in all countries. Fertility was negatively affected by the female wage rate in all countries. Disposable income was insignificant in the UK and Germany and positive and significant in Italy and the US. The interest rate was significant in only 1 model. Child benefits had a positive and significant effect on fertility in the UK. In savings models, disposable income was significant and positive, and child benefits and wage rates were insignificant. Social security coverage had a negative effect on fertility and a positive effect on savings, except in Germany. Findings indicate that saving and fertility are jointly determined.

The effects of financial markets and social security on saving and fertility behaviour in Italy.

The paper aims to ascertain the extent to which saving and fertility decisions are affected by the availability and attractiveness of market-based or state-provided alternatives to the family as a source of old-age support. Subordinately, the paper aims to bring evidence to bear on the assumption that fertility is endogenous and jointly determined with saving, and to test two alternative hypotheses about individual motivations. The saving and fertility implications of two alternative models of family choice — based one on the assumption of pure self-interest, the other on that of intergenerational altruism — are first derived theoretically. Saving and fertility equations are then estimated from Italian time-series data, using as explanatory variables the market rate of interest, the social security deficit, various measures of capital market accessibility and social security coverage, and a number of income and wage variables. Particularly worthy of note is the result that a fully-funded increase in social security coverage raises saving, while an increase in the social security deficit has the opposite effect. The empirical findings appear to support the assumption that fertility is endogenous and jointly determined with saving, and to favour the hypothesis that individual decisions are motivated by self-interest rather than intergenerational altruism. Some of the policy implications are briefly discussed in the concluding section.

Social security in a non-altruistic model with uncertainty and endogenous fertility

Abstract The effect of social security on fertility and saving is analyzed within a nonaltruistic model of intergenerational transfers, both in the absence and in the presence of a perfect capital market. Fertility is reduced by a budget balanced increase in social security if the individuals have a high degree of risk aversion. Savings are unambiguously increased by an expansion of social security, while the effect of a deficit-financed expansion of the social security system on saving and fertility depends on the characteristics of the policy package considered.

Determinants of child labor and school attendance : the role of household unobservables

We develop a random effects multinomial logit model to distinguish between unobserved and observed household characteristics as determinants of child labor and school attendance. Using a semi-parametric approach, the random effect is drawn from a discrete distribution of latent classes of households. The results show that household-level unobserved heterogeneity is substantial. Household-level unobserved heterogeneity swamps observed income and wealth heterogeneity. Households that belong to the class with a high latent propensity to send their children to work are not influenced by marginal changes in the explanatory variables. Households most sensitive to changes in explanatory variables are those with a high propensity to have their children neither in school nor working. Policy interventions and changes in external conditions are likely to produce large changes in the behavior of this group of families.

Global Social Preferences and the Demand for Socially Responsible Products: Empirical Evidence from a Pilot Study on Fair Trade Consumers

We analyze behaviour and motivations of a sample of about one thousand consumers purchasing “fair trade (FT) goods”, i. e. food and artisan goods which include socially responsible (SR) characteristics and a price premium for primary product producers with respect to equivalent non FT products. By estimating a simultaneous two-equation treatment effect model we find that FT products have less than unit income elasticity and their demand is negatively (positively) correlated with geographical distance from the nearest shop (age and awareness of SR criteria). Awareness of SR criteria depends, in turn, on a series of factors (consumption habits, membership of volunteer associations) which, indirectly (via increased awareness), significantly affect consumption. We also measure consumers’ willingness to pay in excess for the SR features of FT products with a contingent evaluation approach and find that it is positively correlated with awareness of SR criteria.

The Impact of Social Security on Saving and Fertility in Germany

Estimating saving and fertility simultaneously by the VAR method, we find that social security coverage has a positive effect on household saving, and a negative effect on fertility. In Germany, as in other countries where the hypothesis was tested, social security is thus good for growth. A possible explanation for this unconventional finding is that compulsory saving in the form of pension contributions tends to displace intrafamily transfers, rather than conventional asset formation. However, the negative effect of social security on fertility tends to erode the systems own contributory base, because it reduces the number of future contributors. That is one of the reasons why, in Germany as elsewhere, the pay-as-you-go pension system is financially brittle. To some extent, that is counteracted by child-related benefits, which tend to encourage fertility, but some retrenchment on the pension front appears to be unavoidable.

Health Effects of Child Work: Evidence from Rural Vietnam

We test whether work in childhood impacts on health. We focus on agricultural work, the dominant form of child work worldwide. Data are from the Vietnam Living Standards Survey, 1992-93 and 1997-98. We correct for both unobservable heterogeneity and simultaneity biases. Instruments include small area labour market and education conditions obtained from community level surveys. We use three indicators of health: body mass index; reported illness; and, height growth. There is clear evidence of a healthy worker selection effect. We find little evidence of a contemporaneous impact of child work on health but work undertaken during childhood raises the risk of illness up to five years later and the risk is increasing with the duration of work. There is no evidence that work impedes the growth of the child.

Voluntary transfers among Italian households: altruistic and non-altruistic explanations

Abstract The Bank of Italy survey of household budgets is analysed in the light of recent theories of voluntary private transfers. A series of tests reveals that the altruistic model, the simple exchange model, and the one based on the preference-shaping hypothesis are rejected by the data. By contrast, the strategic self-interest model, which explains transfers as part of self-enforcing intergenerational credit agreements, cannot be rejected. We find, in particular, that monetary transfers between Italian households are mainly destined to children up to 30. Moreover, our results reinforce the conclusion that participating in an informal credit arrangement has a fixed cost for the lender. One of the policy implications is that a modest redistribution programme could be effective.

The Health Impact of Child Labor in Developing Countries: Evidence From Cross-Country Data

OBJECTIVES Research on child labor and its effect on health has been limited. We sought to determine the impact of child labor on childrens health by correlating existing health indicators with the prevalence of child labor in selected developing countries. METHODS We analyzed the relationship between child labor (defined as the percentage of children aged 10 to 14 years who were workers) and selected health indicators in 83 countries using multiple regression to determine the nature and strength of the relation. The regression included control variables such as the percentage of the population below the poverty line and the adult mortality rate. RESULTS Child labor was significantly and positively related to adolescent mortality, to a populations nutrition level, and to the presence of infectious disease. CONCLUSIONS Longitudinal studies are required to understand the short- and long-term health effects of child labor on the individual child.

Child Labour Education and Nutrition in Rural India

Decisions concerning child labour, education and nutrition are taken by parents simultaneously with decisions affecting fertility and infant mortality. This implies that child labour cannot be abolished without altering the conditions that make it optimal for parents to make their children work. Such conditions can be altered not only by educational policies, such as free or subsidized provision of school facilities, but also by more broadly aimed policies, such as sanitation or preventive medicine.