G Anil Kumar

Sex behaviour of men who have sex with men and risk of HIV in Andhra Pradesh, India.

Objective: To obtain information on sex behaviour of a large sample of men who have sex with men (MSM) in India that would assist in planning HIV prevention. Methods: Homosexual/bisexual behaviour of 6661 MSM at 62 urban–rural locations of various sizes in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh was assessed through detailed interview. Multivariate analyses were performed to understand the associations with unprotected penetrative sex and barriers to condom use assessed. Results: The average number of different male sex partners in past 4 weeks was six. In last three sex encounters with men, totalling 19 640, anal sex occurred in 16 769, at least once by 6121 (91.9%) MSM of which 3423 [55.9%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 51.7–60.1%] did not use condom at least once. A total of 2785 (41.8%) were currently married to women and 3354 (50.4%) had had vaginal/anal sex with women in the past 3 months, of which 2818 (84%; 95% CI, 81.1–86.9%) did not use a condom. Furthermore, 1585 (25.9%; 95% CI, 22.7–29.1%) had anal sex without a condom with men and also vaginal/anal sex without a condom with women. This was prevalent across urban–rural locations and its strongest association was with currently married MSM (odds ratio 15.1; 95% CI, 12.5–18.2). The predominant reason for not using a condom with women was ‘do not use with regular partner’ (68.4%). Conclusion: This high rate of unprotected penetrative sex by MSM with both men and women suggests that HIV prevention efforts in India should include a focus on MSM as well as their wives across many urban–rural locations and not only in large cities.

Estimates of global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide. Methods We estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in diarrhoeal mortality. The two leading risk factors for diarrhoea—childhood malnutrition and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene—were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in diarrhoea disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Findings Globally, in 2015, we estimate that diarrhoea was a leading cause of death among all ages (1·31 million deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 1·23 million to 1·39 million), as well as a leading cause of DALYs because of its disproportionate impact on young children (71·59 million DALYs, 66·44 million to 77·21 million). Diarrhoea was a common cause of death among children under 5 years old (499 000 deaths, 95% UI 447 000–558 000). The number of deaths due to diarrhoea decreased by an estimated 20·8% (95% UI 15·4–26·1) from 2005 to 2015. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea deaths (199 000, 95% UI 165 000–241 000), followed by Shigella spp (164 300, 85 000–278 700) and Salmonella spp (90 300, 95% UI 34 100–183 100). Among children under 5 years old, the three aetiologies responsible for the most deaths were rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, and Shigella spp. Improvements in safe water and sanitation have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 13·4%, and reductions in childhood undernutrition have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 10·0% between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation At the global level, deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases have decreased substantially in the past 25 years, although progress has been faster in some countries than others. Diarrhoea remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to improve access to safe water, sanitation, and childhood nutrition will be important in reducing the global burden of diarrhoea. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Demography and sex work characteristics of female sex workers in India

BackgroundThe majority of sex work in India is clandestine due to unfavorable legal environment and discrimination against female sex workers (FSWs). We report data on who these women are and when they get involved with sex work that could assist in increasing the reach of HIV prevention activities for them.MethodsDetailed documentation of demography and various aspects of sex work was done through confidential interviews of 6648 FSWs in 13 districts in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The demography of FSWs was compared with that of women in the general population.ResultsA total of 5010 (75.4%), 1499 (22.5%), and 139 (2.1%) street-, home-, and brothel-based FSWs, respectively, participated. Comparison with women of Andhra Pradesh revealed that the proportion of those aged 20–34 years (75.6%), belonging to scheduled caste (35.3%) and scheduled tribe (10.5%), illiterate (74.7%), and of those separated/divorced (30.7%) was higher among FSWs (p < 0.001). The FSWs engaged in sex work for >5 years were more likely to be non-street-based FSWs, illiterate, living in small urban towns, and to have started sex work between 12–15 years of age. The mean age at starting sex work (21.7 years) and gap between the first vaginal intercourse and the first sexual intercourse in exchange for money (6.6 years) was lower for FSWs in the rural areas as compared with those in large urban areas (23.9 years and 8.8 years, respectively).ConclusionThese data highlight that women struggling with illiteracy, lower social status, and less economic opportunities are especially vulnerable to being infected by HIV, as sex work may be one of the few options available to them to earn money. Recommendations for actions are made for long-term impact on reducing the numbers of women being infected by HIV in addition to the current HIV prevention efforts in India.

Crash characteristics and patterns of injury among hospitalized motorised two-wheeled vehicle users in urban India

BackgroundTraffic crashes and consequent injuries represent a growing public health concern in India, particularly in light of increasing motorization. Motorised two-wheeled vehicles (MTV) constitute a large portion of the vehicle fleet in India. We report the crash characteristics and injury patterns among a cohort of MTV riders and pillions presenting to hospital post-crash.MethodsConsecutive MTV riders and pillions, whether alive or dead, injured in a road traffic crash presenting to the emergency departments of two government hospitals and three branches of a private hospital in urban Hyderabad, India, were recruited to this study.Results378 MTV users were enrolled to the study of whom 333 (88.1%) were male, 252 (66.7%) were riders and median age was 31.3 years. A total of 223 (59%) MTV users were injured in multi-vehicle crashes while one-third had a frontal impact. The majority (77%) were assessed as having a Glasgow coma score (GCS) of 13–15, 12% a GCS of 9–12 and 11% a GCS of 3–8. No difference was seen in the severity distribution of injuries based on GCS among riders and pillions. Open wounds and superficial injuries to the head (69.3%) and upper extremity (27%) and lower extremity (24%) were the most common injuries. 43 (11%) sustained an intracranial injury, including 12 (28%) with associated fracture of the bones of the head. There were few differences in types of injuries sustained by riders and pillions though riders had a significantly lower risk of crush injuries of the lower extremity than pillions (relative risk, RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08–0.81) and female pillions were at a significantly lower risk of sustaining fractures of the lower extremity than male pillions (RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09 – 0.94). Overall, 42 (11%) MTV users died, of which 42.8% died before reaching the hospital. Only 74 (19.6%) MTV users had worn a helmet correctly and failure to wear a helmet was associated with a five times greater risk of intracranial injury (RR 4.99, 95% CI 1.23–20.1). Of the 19 pre-hospital deaths, 16 (84%) had not worn a helmet.ConclusionHead injuries accounted for the major proportion of injuries sustained in MTV users. Non-helmet use was associated with increased risk of serious head injuries. The data presented on the nature and severity of injuries sustained by MTV users can assist with planning to deal with these consequences as well as prevention of these injuries given the high use of MTV in India.

A population-based study of human immunodeficiency virus in south India reveals major differences from sentinel surveillance-based estimates

BackgroundThe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) burden among adults in India is estimated officially by direct extrapolation of annual sentinel surveillance data from public-sector antenatal and sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics and some high-risk groups. The validity of these extrapolations has not been systematically examined with a large sample population-based study.MethodsWe sampled 13838 people, 15–49 years old, from 66 rural and urban clusters using a stratified random method to represent adults in Guntur district in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. We interviewed the sampled participants and obtained dried blood spots from them, and tested blood for HIV antibody, antigen and nucleic acid. We calculated the number of people with HIV in Guntur district based on these data, compared it with the estimate using the sentinel surveillance data and method, and analysed health services use data to understand the differences.ResultsIn total, 12617 people (91.2% of the sampled group) gave a blood sample. Adjusted HIV prevalence was 1.72% (95% confidence interval 1.35–2.09%); men 1.74% (1.27–2.21%), women 1.70% (1.36–2.04%); rural 1.64% (1.10–2.18%), urban 1.89% (1.39–2.39%). HIV prevalence was 2.58% and 1.20% in people in the lower and upper halves of a standard of living index (SLI). Of women who had become pregnant during the past 2 years, 21.1% had used antenatal care in large public-sector hospitals participating in sentinel surveillance. There was an over-representation of the lowest SLI quartile (44.7%) in this group, and 3.61% HIV prevalence versus 1.08% in the remaining pregnant women. HIV prevalence was higher in that group even when women were matched for the same SLI half (lower half 4.39%, upper 2.63%) than in the latter (lower 1.06%, upper 1.05%), due to referral of HIV-positive/suspected women by private practitioners to public hospitals. The sentinel surveillance method (HIV prevalence: antenatal clinic 3%, STI clinic 22.8%, female sex workers 12.8%) led to an estimate of 112635 (4.38%) people with HIV, 15–49 years old, in Guntur district, which was 2.5 times the 45942 (1.79%) estimate based on our population-based study.ConclusionThe official method in India leads to a gross overestimation of the HIV burden in this district due to addition of substantial extra HIV estimates from STI clinics, the common practice of referral of HIV-positive/suspected people to public hospitals, and a preferential use of public hospitals by people in lower socioeconomic strata. India may be overestimating its HIV burden with the currently used official estimation method.

Risk factors associated with HIV in a population-based study in Andhra Pradesh state of India

BACKGROUND Population-based data on risk factors associated with HIV are not readily available from India. This understanding, and an estimate of the impact of addressing behavioural factors on reducing HIV, would be useful. METHODS We interviewed a population-based sample of 12,617 persons 15-49 years old from 66 rural and urban clusters in Guntur district in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh and tested their dried blood spots for HIV. We used multiple logistic regression to assess the association of risk factors with HIV, and calculated population impact numbers for HIV reduction if behavioural factors were addressed. RESULTS Among men, there was significant association between HIV and history of sex with men, blood transfusion, having ever visited sex worker or multiple lifetime women sex partners, consuming alcohol before sex, recreational drug use, male non-circumcision and tattooing (odds ratios 5.74-1.97, P < 0.03, R(2) = 0.11). Among women, the only identified behavioural factor associated with HIV was multiple lifetime men sex partners (P = 0.001, R(2) = 0.10). Taking into account the relative risk and prevalence of risk factors, the highest impact on reducing the HIV number per unit population was for male circumcision. CONCLUSIONS Among the identified factors, male circumcision was estimated to have the highest relative impact on reducing HIV per unit population, but the feasibility of this intervention in India needs further investigation. The low explanatory power in the regression models of the usually considered risk factors for HIV suggests that better understanding of HIV dynamics at the population level in India is needed.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory tract infections in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2015 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and shows how the burden of LRI has changed in people of all ages. Methods We estimated LRI mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study called the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We modelled LRI morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for LRI using two different counterfactual approaches, the first for viral pathogens, which incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of LRI and the prevalence of the aetiology in LRI episodes, and the second for bacterial pathogens, which uses a vaccine-probe approach. We used the Socio-demographic Index, which is a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in LRI-related mortality. The two leading risk factors for LRI disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), childhood undernutrition and air pollution, were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in LRI DALYs. Findings In 2015, we estimated that LRIs caused 2·74 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·50 million to 2·86 million) and 103·0 million DALYs (95% UI 96·1 million to 109·1 million). LRIs have a disproportionate effect on children younger than 5 years, responsible for 704 000 deaths (95% UI 651 000–763 000) and 60.6 million DALYs (95ÙI 56·0–65·6). Between 2005 and 2015, the number of deaths due to LRI decreased by 36·9% (95% UI 31·6 to 42·0) in children younger than 5 years, and by 3·2% (95% UI −0·4 to 6·9) in all ages. Pneumococcal pneumonia caused 55·4% of LRI deaths in all ages, totalling 1 517 388 deaths (95% UI 857 940–2 183 791). Between 2005 and 2015, improvements in air pollution exposure were responsible for a 4·3% reduction in LRI DALYs and improvements in childhood undernutrition were responsible for an 8·9% reduction. Interpretation LRIs are the leading infectious cause of death and the fifth-leading cause of death overall; they are the second-leading cause of DALYs. At the global level, the burden of LRIs has decreased dramatically in the last 10 years in children younger than 5 years, although the burden in people older than 70 years has increased in many regions. LRI remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to decrease indoor and ambient air pollution, improve childhood nutrition, and scale up the use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children and adults will be essential in reducing the global burden of LRI. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Importance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use. Objective To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an “other” group that encompasses residual causes. Design, Settings, and Participants Mortality was estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs. Main Outcomes and Measures Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year. Results There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and −8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies. Conclusions and Relevance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts.

How much attention is needed towards men who sell sex to men for HIV prevention in India

BackgroundHIV prevention in India has mostly focussed on heterosexual transmission. Data on homosexual transmission are not readily available from India. We therefore assessed the probability of acquiring and transmitting HIV for men who sell sex to men and compared this with women who sell sex in India.MethodsSexual behaviour characteristics of 6661 men who have sex with men and 6648 women who sell sex were obtained in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh through confidential interviews. These, along with estimates of HIV rates among them and risk of HIV transmission per unprotected sex act from other sources, were used to calculate their annual probability of acquiring and transmitting HIV.ResultsOf 6661 men who have sex with men in this sample, 1776 (26.7%) had sold sex to men. For every 1000 men who sell sex to men, annually 146 (95% confidence interval [CI] 116–179) would acquire HIV and HIV would be transmitted to 55 (95% CI 42–71) men who do not sell sex or women. These estimates were higher by 6.7 (95% CI 4.9–9.2) times for acquiring HIV and 2.5 (95% CI 2.0–3.2) times for transmitting HIV to sex partners outside their group, as compared with similar estimates for women who sell sex. In this sample, the average annual probability of acquiring HIV was higher among men who have sex with men but do not sell sex as compared with women who sell sex.ConclusionThese data indicate that men who sell sex to men are at much higher risk of acquiring and transmitting HIV than women who sell sex. Therefore, men who sell sex to men and their clients warrant substantial attention for comprehensive HIV prevention in India.

Population-based seroprevalence of HSV-2 and syphilis in Andhra Pradesh state of India

BackgroundUnderstanding the prevalence and risk factors for common causes of ulcerative genital disease in the general population would inform current STI syndromic management and HIV testing strategies in high HIV prevalence regions of India.MethodsPersons 15-49 years old from 32 rural and 34 urban clusters were sampled using a stratified random method to represent adults in the high HIV prevalence Guntur district in Andhra Pradesh state. Interviews were conducted and dry blood spots were collected on 12,617 study participants. Testing for HSV-2 and syphilis was performed.ResultsAdjusted HSV-2 and syphilis seroprevalence rates were 4.70% and 2.08% for men and 7.07% and 1.42% for women. For men, tattooing, >3 lifetime sex partners, tobacco use, and sex with men in the past 6 months were associated with HSV-2 or syphilis (ORs, 1.66-2.95, p < 0.05). Male circumcision was positively associated with HSV-2 infection (OR, 1.37, p = 0.028) though this could be due to residual confounding. In women, greater than one lifetime partner remained significantly associated with HSV-2 in multivariate analysis (OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.39-4.87). Among all behavioral risk factors and other covariates in women and men, HIV infection exhibited the strongest association with HSV-2 and syphilis (ORs, 8.2-14.2, p < 0.001). The proportion of individuals with HSV-2 who were HIV infected was less than the proportion with syphilis who were HIV infected (11.8% vs. 22.7%; p = 0.001).ConclusionsNearly one in four persons surveyed in this population-based study that were seroprevalent for syphilis, were also HIV infected. Common population risk factors for syphilis, HSV-2 and HIV and high rates of co-seroprevalence suggest that HIV testing, STI testing and service strategies for these would benefit from direct linkage in India.