G. Arturo Sánchez-Azofeifa

Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming

As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with ‘very high confidence’ (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.

Measuring the effectiveness of protected area networks in reducing deforestation.

Global efforts to reduce tropical deforestation rely heavily on the establishment of protected areas. Measuring the effectiveness of these areas is difficult because the amount of deforestation that would have occurred in the absence of legal protection cannot be directly observed. Conventional methods of evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas can be biased because protection is not randomly assigned and because protection can induce deforestation spillovers (displacement) to neighboring forests. We demonstrate that estimates of effectiveness can be substantially improved by controlling for biases along dimensions that are observable, measuring spatial spillovers, and testing the sensitivity of estimates to potential hidden biases. We apply matching methods to evaluate the impact on deforestation of Costa Ricas renowned protected-area system between 1960 and 1997. We find that protection reduced deforestation: approximately 10% of the protected forests would have been deforested had they not been protected. Conventional approaches to evaluating conservation impact, which fail to control for observable covariates correlated with both protection and deforestation, substantially overestimate avoided deforestation (by over 65%, based on our estimates). We also find that deforestation spillovers from protected to unprotected forests are negligible. Our conclusions are robust to potential hidden bias, as well as to changes in modeling assumptions. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical methods, conservation scientists and policy makers can better understand the relationships between human and natural systems and can use this to guide their attempts to protect critical ecosystem services.

COUNTRYSIDE BIOGEOGRAPHY: USE OF HUMAN-DOMINATED HABITATS BY THE AVIFAUNA OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA

Understanding the multifaceted relationship between biodiversity and land- use intensity is key to conservation policy. To begin to characterize this relationship in a tropical region, we investigated the bird fauna in an agricultural landscape in southern Costa Rica. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data show that about 27% of the land remains forested in the 15 km radius study region encompassing our sites. The rest was cleared about 40 yr ago for relatively small-scale coffee and cattle production, intermixed with other crops. Our goals were to: (1) compare the composition of the avifauna found in forest- fragment and open habitats of the countryside; (2) assess the faunal change that has occurred since deforestation; and (3) provide a baseline for future comparisons. We surveyed the avifauna of eight forest fragments (0.3-25 ha) and 13 open-habitat sites (1.0 ha each) in the agricultural landscape. The pre-deforestation avifauna was ap- proximated by the long-term bird list for the largest forest fragment (Las Cruces, LC; 227 ha) in the study region. We assumed conservatively that a species recorded in LC but not detected elsewhere occurred only in LC. Of the 272 locally extant bird species considered in this study, 149 (55%) occurred in forest habitats only. There was a significant positive correlation between forest fragment size and species richness for these forest birds. Of the remaining 123 species, 60 (22% of the total) occurred both in forest and open habitats. Sixty-three species (23%) occurred in open habitats only; the three nonnative species (1%) are in this group. Based on comparisons with larger forest tracts outside of the study region, it appeared that between 4 and 28 species (1-9% of the possible original totals) have gone locally extinct since deforestation began. The avifauna of open habitats was similar through- out the study region and did not vary with proximity to extensive forest. A substantial proportion of the native bird fauna occurs in a densely (human) populated, agricultural landscape almost a half-century after extensive clearance. There are, however, cautionary messages: (1) the common occurrence of forest birds in human-dominated coun- tryside (including both forest-fragment and open habitats) does not necessarily imply that these species maintain sustainable populations there; (2) about half of the species have little prospect of surviving outside of the forest; and (3) ongoing intensification of land use may greatly reduce avian diversity in countryside habitats. Nonetheless, countryside habitats may buy time for the conservation of some species; at best, they may even sustain a moderate fraction of the native biota.

Deforestation in Costa Rica: A Quantitative Analysis Using Remote Sensing Imagery1

Accurate estimates of forest cover and forest fragmentation are critical for developing countries such as Costa Rica, which holds four to five percent of the world’s plant and bird species. We estimated forest cover for Costa Rica using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper satellite scenes acquired between 1986 and 1991. In 1991, 29 percent (ca 14,000 km2) of the land cover of Costa Rica was closed forest cover; of that forested area, ca 30 percent is protected by national conservation policies. Forest loss in a study area representing ca 50 percent of Costa Rica’s territory during a five-year period (1986–1991) was 2250 km2, and the estimated deforestation rate was ca 450 km2/yr, or ca 4.2 percent/yr, of remaining forest cover. Forests are almost completely eliminated from the Tropical Moist Forest and Premontane Moist Forest life zones, and the level of fragmentation of remaining forests may be more advanced than previously thought.

POVERTY AND CORRUPTION COMPROMISE TROPICAL FOREST RESERVES

We used the global fire detection record provided by the satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to determine the number of fires detected inside 823 tropical and subtropical moist forest reserves and for contiguous buffer areas 5, 10, and 15 km wide. The ratio of fire detection densities (detections per square kilometer) inside reserves to their contiguous buffer areas provided an index of reserve effectiveness. Fire detection density was significantly lower inside reserves than in paired, contiguous buffer areas but varied by five orders of magnitude among reserves. The buffer: reserve detection ratio varied by up to four orders of magnitude among reserves within a single country, and median values varied by three orders of magnitude among countries. Reserves tended to be least effective at reducing fire frequency in many poorer countries and in countries beset by corruption. Countries with the most successful reserves include Costa Rica, Jamaica, Malaysia, and Taiwan and the Indonesian island of Java. Countries with the most problematic reserves include Cambodia, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Sierra Leone and the Indonesian portion of Borneo. We provide fire detection density for 3964 tropical and subtropical reserves and their buffer areas in the hope that these data will expedite further analyses that might lead to improved management of tropical reserves.

The Kyoto protocol and payments for tropical forest: an interdisciplinary method for estimating carbon-offset supply and increasing the feasibility of a carbon market under the CDM.

Abstract Protecting tropical forests under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could reduce the cost of emissions limitations set in Kyoto. However, while society must soon decide whether or not to use tropical forest-based offsets, evidence regarding tropical carbon sinks is sparse. This paper presents a general method for constructing an integrated model (based on detailed historical, remote sensing and field data) that can produce land-use and carbon baselines, predict carbon sequestration supply to a carbon-offsets market and also help to evaluate optimal market rules. Creating such integrated models requires close collaboration between social and natural scientists. Our project combines varied disciplinary expertise (in economics, ecology and geography) with local knowledge in order to create high-quality, empirically grounded, integrated models for Costa Rica.

Dynamics of Tropical Deforestation Around National Parks: Remote Sensing of Forest Change on the Osa Peninsula of Costa Rica

Abstract National parks and biological reserves play an important role in counteracting the effects of tropical deforestation in mountainous environments, a leading cause of biodiversity loss worldwide. Unfortunately, information is sparse on the nature, dynamics, and spatial dimension of land use and land cover change processes that contribute to park vulnerability. This article assesses the current state of landscape fragmentation and structure on the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica, using Landsat Multispectral Scanner and Thematic Mapper satellite scenes between 1979 and 1997. The Osa Peninsula hosts the Corcovado National Park, which contains the only protected region of Tropical Wet forest on the Pacific slopes of Mesoamerica, including a significant number of species that are endemic, threatened, or new to science. The level of isolation of the Corcovado National Park is based on the degree of ecosystem degradation produced by frontal deforestation processes. Our results indicate that the proportion of the Osa Peninsula covered by forest declined from 97% in 1979 to 91% in 1987 and to 89% by 1997. Total forest area declined from 977 km2 in 1979 to 896 km2 by 1997. These results pose significant questions regarding the effectiveness of current conservation efforts in this mountain biodiversity-rich area of Mesoamerica.

Derivative spectral unmixing of hyperspectral data applied to mixtures of lichen and rock

Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) has been used extensively in the hyperspectral remote sensing community for the subpixel abundance estimation of targets. However, the task of defining every endmember can be difficult, as evident from the importance attributed to the topic in the recent literature. The effectiveness of SMA can be compromised when the required spectral endmembers are not well constrained in terms of their spectral magnitude and shape. The spectral magnitude of the endmembers is more difficult to obtain than their spectral shape, in part because the effects of the atmosphere and topography are difficult to constrain. This paper presents a derivative spectral unmixing (DSU) model, which is an extension of the spectral mixture analysis and derivative analysis. Using a DSU approach, it is possible to estimate the fraction of an endmember characterized by one or more diagnostic absorption features despite having only a general knowledge of the spectral shapes of the remaining endmembers. The DSU is assessed using spectral data acquired for a lichen-covered rock sample, and the estimated fractions of lichen and rock are assessed against that obtained from a high spatial resolution digital photograph. The results of the laboratory experiments suggests that the DSU is a promising algorithm for the quantitative analysis of hyperspectral data, but experiments on airborne/spaceborne imagery are now required to assess its value for geological mapping.

Functional regeneration and spectral reflectance of trees during succession in a highly diverse tropical dry forest ecosystem

PREMISE OF THE STUDY The function of most ecosystems has been altered by human activities. To asses the recovery of plant communities, we must evaluate the recovery of plant functional traits. The seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF), a highly threatened ecosystem, is assumed to recover relatively quickly from disturbance, but an integrated evaluation of recovery in floristic, structural, and functional terms has not been performed. In this study we aimed to (a) compare SDTF plant functional, floristic, and structural change along succession; (b) identify tree functional groups; and (c) explore the spectral properties of different successional stages. METHODS Across a SDTF successional gradient, we evaluated the change of species composition, vegetation structure, and leaf spectral reflectance and functional traits (related to water use, light acquisition, nutrient conservation, and CO(2) acquisition) of 25 abundant tree species. KEY RESULTS A complete recovery of SDTF takes longer than the time period inferred from floristic or structural data. Plant functional traits changed along succession from those that maximize photoprotection and heat dissipation in early succession, where temperature is an environmental constraint, to those that enhance light acquisition in late succession, where light may be limiting. A spectral indicator of plant photosynthetic performance (photochemical reflectance index) discriminated between early and late succession. This constitutes a foundation for further exploration of remote sensing technologies for studying tropical succession. CONCLUSIONS A functional approach should be incorporated as a regular descriptor of forest succession because it provides a richer understanding of vegetation dynamics than is offered by either the floristic or structural approach alone.

The Application of Remote Sensing for Detecting Mass Graves: An Experimental Animal Case Study from Costa Rica

Abstract:  Detection of mass graves utilizing the hyperspectral information in airborne or satellite imagery is an untested application of remote sensing technology. We examined the in situ spectral reflectance of an experimental animal mass grave in a tropical moist forest environment and compared it to an identically constructed false grave which was refilled with soil, but contained no cattle carcasses over the course of a 16‐month period. The separability of the in situ reflectance spectra was examined with a combination of feature selection and five different nonparametric pattern classifiers. We also scaled up the analysis to examine the spectral signature of the same experimental mass grave from an air‐borne hyperspectral image collected 1 month following burial. Our results indicate that at both scales (in situ and airborne), the experimental grave had a spectral signature that was distinct and therefore detectable from the false grave. In addition, we observed that vegetation regeneration was severely inhibited over the mass grave containing cattle carcasses for up to a period of 16 months. This experimental study has demonstrated the real utility of airborne hyperspectral imagery for the detection of a relatively small mass grave (5 m2) within a specific climatic zone. Other climatic zones will require similar actualistic modeling studies, but it is clear that the applications of this technology provide the international community with both an early detection tool and a tool for ongoing monitoring.