G. C. Rogers

Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada

We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5xa0m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40–80xa0% in 50xa0years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1–15xa0%) and the Arctic (<1xa0%). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3xa0m), Pacific hazard is ~10–30xa0% in 50xa0years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1–5xa0%) and Arctic (<1xa0%). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5xa0m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3xa0m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.