G. Edward Schuh

The Exchange Rate and U. S. Agriculture

Previous analyses of trade and development problems of U. S. agriculture have neglected the role of exchange rate policy. An attempt is made to understand the role of the exchange rate on these problems in a non-parametric fashion by means of a model of induced technical change. It is argued that the overvaluation of the dollar and the policy measures to combat it aggravated the adjustment problems of U. S. agriculture, especially during the 1950s, and resulted in shifting an important share of the benefits of technical change to the consumer. Moreover the recent devaluation of the dollar constitutes an important structural change for U. S. agriculture.

The New Macroeconomics of Agriculture

Most of the literature on the macroeconomics of U.S. agriculture is cast in the context of a closed economy. Moreover, it considers a world in which there is rapid technological change, and focuses on the problems involved in the so-called agricultural transformation the process whereby an important share of the agricultural labor force is transferred out of agriculture and new modern inputs produced in the nonfarm sector are introduced Consequently , it tends to ignore our linkages to an international economy, and focuses instead on the secular income problems that agriculture faces as it is subjected to the processes of economic growth.

Social Rates of Return and Other Aspects of Agricultural Research: The Case of Cotton Research in São Paulo, Brazil

Economic impacts of investments in cotton seed research and development in Sao Paulo, Brazil, are estimated. The internal rate of return to Brazilian society is estimated to have been approximately 90 percent. The effect on export earnings was large, and consumers benefited via a decrease in the price and an increase in the quantity of cotton cloth. Of total net benefits producers captured about 60 percent and consumers 40 percent. Landowners and managers received the largest share of producer benefits. Laborers benefited through an increase in employment, but wage rates were not raised. Policy implications are given.

Econometric Analysis of the Agricultural Labor Market

Previous research on the market for agricultural labor is extended through the use of a simultaneous-equations model consisting of six equations. The model treats the markets for unpaid family and operator labor, both of which have been slighted in previous work, and takes account of the interdependence among the three components of the agricultural labor force. The demand and supply elasticities were found to differ substantially among the components. Economic implications suggested by the statistical results are analyzed, and the structural models are used to evaluate a number of alternative policies that bear on labor use and labor returns.

Future Directions for Food and Agricultural Trade Policy

During the 1970s U.S. agriculture experienced an unprecedented export boom. This export boom produced an unusual, albeit short-lived, period of prosperity for agriculture. Land previously idled by government programs was brought back into production and new land cleared, with the result that by 1981 cropland in production was a record high 391 million acres. In constant value (1967 dollars) terms net farm income rose from

Regional Supply of Hired Labor to Agriculture

12.2 billion in 1971 to an unusual peak of

The household:: the neglected link in research and programs for poverty alleviation

25.1 billion in 1973. The need for direct government support of agriculture declined. In the 1980s, this strong export performance of U.S. agriculture has been reversed. The physical volume of exports reached a peak in 1980, and the value of exports reached a peak in 1981. Both volume and value have steadily declined since those peaks. Total value of exports declined from

Open Economies: Implications for Global Agriculture

43.8 billion in 1981 to

Economic Integration Among Taiwan, Hong Kong and China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

34.8 billion for the 1983 fiscal year, a decline of 21%. This decline in foreign markets has contributed to a serious income problem in agriculture. Net farm income declined to an unprecedentedly low figure of

An Empirical Study of the Agricultural Labor Market in a Developing Country, Brazil

7.6 billion (in 1967 dollars) in 1982. It also contributed to a serious financial crisis in agriculture as expanded debt commitments based on an export-driven expectation of continued prosperity for agriculture was met with significantly reduced farm incomes, serious cash-flow problems, and reduced equity as land values declined. The decline in farm markets has also created a serious challenge to farm programs and policy makers. From negligible program costs in the 1970s--except for the dairy program-the costs of farm programs burgeoned out of control. By 1981 they were up to