G. F. Warren

Some After-the-War Problems in Agriculture

The after-the-war problems in agriculture are not strikingly different in kind from the pre-war problems. But the war has made the problems more acute. We are now going through a period of reconstruction of ideas. All that is, is questioned. New theories on every subject receive a ready hearing. The world is in flux. That which is done may last for years. That which is not done may not be accomplished in years. If farmers do not now plan ahead, they may find that plans have been made as plans in the past so often have been made on the assumption that the problems of mankind begin at the city terminal of the railroad. The Fundamental Rural Problem1.-The fundamental problem in agriculture is to make and keep conditions of farm life such that a fair proportion of the intelligent and able citizens of the nation will continue to live on farms. Farm families are larger than city families. It, therefore, follows that whatever the farm population is, the nation will become. The strongest safeguard that the nation can have is an independent, foreward-looking and self-respecting farm population. Methods of Meeting the Problem.-There are two theories as to the best way to solve the farm problem. One method is to search the world for persons who will be content with farm conditions as they are. This method has many powerful advocates. Some would bring in Chinese. Considerable agitation for this procedure is constantly going on. Others would bring in the backward races of Europe and Asia to work our farms-peoples so backward that to them our worst farm conditions would seem like luxury. The same idea often takes the form of complaint against the desire of the American farmer to share in the American standard of living. The conclusion is reached that the farmer should be replaced by a peasant family whose housekeeping is so simple that all members of the family work in the fields and whose desires for education are so slight that the children are kept out of school to work.

The Outlook for Agriculture

The very brief time at my disposal will not be devoted tol a weather forecast, although the character of the weather vouchsafed to the farmer from season to season is the most immediately important factor in his prosperity or distress. Neither shall I attempt a forecast of general business as it impinges specifically upon agriculture, though it might seem that questions of wage rates, employment, and trade activity influence quite largely the outlook of the agricultural producer. It is obvious that both these groups of influences will effect deviations either up or down in the farmers line of prosperity during the years just ahead of us. But there are also certain basic characteristics of the industry which, in a still more fundamental way, will influence its major trend during the next ten years or so. It is to these factors in the long-run outlook that I shall address myself, classifying them under two heads: (1) the technological situation and (2) the nature of economic organization and institutions with which this technological situation is to be met.

An Attempt to Forecast the Future Trend of Farm Prices

1. The quantity of money. 2. Cycles of over and under-production. 3. Cycles of high and low demand. 4. Long-time changes in ease of production or in demand. 5. Season of year. 6. The weather and other accidental causes. In this discussion, attention will be given to the first three of these only. On a gold basis the general price level in Europe is much below prices in America, and is likely to continue so. For this reason those countries are very anxious to get into a position where they will not have to buy from us. They are bending every effort to become self-sufficient as to food supplies. Agriculture has recovered from the war much more fully than has city industry. The world supplies of farm products are high compared with world demand. World supplies of manufactured goods particularly of equipment and permanent improvements are low compared with world demand. This makes prices of farm products low compared with other things. Agriculture is being depressed at the same time when manufacturing is stimulated. Temporarily the growth of population was retarded and the world was made poor by the war. This has checked the demand for farm products. With gradual recovery of purchasing power and growth of population it is to be expected that a time will come in ten to twenty years when the supply of farm products will be low relative to demand. Since many years are required to make striking changes in agriculture, a period of agricultural prosperity may be expected. While the general price level of America will doubtless remain high relative to Europe for some years, the prices of farm products which we export to Europe must be low relative to prices in Europe for these same things. The problems that have caused this subject to be placed on the program are due to the quantity of money. The basic reason for the present mal-adjustments are great financial 28