G. Ganci

The initial phases of the 2008–2009 Mount Etna eruption: A multidisciplinary approach for hazard assessment

Accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research. Copyright (2010) American Geophysical Union

Near‐real‐time forecasting of lava flow hazards during the 12–13 January 2011 Etna eruption

We are grateful to EUMETSAT for SEVIRI data, to NASA for MODIS data, and toNOAAfor AVHRR data. The authors thank one anonymous reviewer and V. Acocella for their helpful and constructive comments. This study was performed with the financial support from the V3‐LAVA project (INGV‐DPC 2007‐2009 contract).

Thermal insights into the dynamics of Nyiragongo lava lake from ground and satellite measurements

This study was funded by Zanskar Producciones, Cabildo Insular de Tenerife, and the Instituto Volcanologico de Canarias. We are grateful to EUMETSAT for providing us SEVIRI data and to NASA for the Landsat 7 image. Letizia Spampinato thanks Dr S. Giammanco for funding her research activity on the VIGOR project.

Conclusion: recommendations and findings of the RED SEED working group

Abstract RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. During each day, presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of (a) volcano hot spot detection and parameterization, (b) operational satellite-based hot spot detection systems, (c) lava flow modelling and (d) response protocols during effusive crises. At the end of each presentation set, the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors, modellers and responders during an effusive crisis. The results of collating the final reports, and follow-up discussions that have been on-going since the workshop, are given here. We can reduce our discussions to four main findings. (1) Hot spot detection tools are operational and capable of providing effusive eruption onset notice within 15 min. (2) Spectral radiance metrics can also be provided with high degrees of confidence. However, if we are to achieve a truly global system, more local receiving stations need to be installed with hot spot detection and data processing modules running on-site and in real time. (3) Models are operational, but need real-time input of reliable time-averaged discharge rate data and regular updates of digital elevation models if they are to be effective; the latter can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community. (4) Information needs to be provided in an agreed and standard format following an ensemble approach and using models that have been validated and recognized as trustworthy by the responding authorities. All of this requires a sophisticated and centralized data collection, distribution and reporting hub that is based on a philosophy of joint ownership and mutual trust. While the next chapter carries out an exercise to explore the viability of the last point, the detailed recommendations behind these findings are detailed here.

HOTSAT: a multiplatform system for the thermal monitoring of volcanic activity using satellite data

Abstract The HOTSAT multiplatform system for the analysis of infrared data from satellites provides a framework that allows the detection of volcanic hotspots and an output of their associated radiative power. This multiplatform system can operate on both Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager data. The new version of the system is now implemented on graphics processing units and its interface is available on the internet under restricted access conditions. Combining the estimation of time-varying discharge rates using HOTSAT with the MAGFLOW physics-based model to simulate lava flow paths resulted in the first operational system in which satellite observations drive the modelling of lava flow emplacement. This allows the timely definition of the parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment, including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run-out distance. The system was first used in an operational context during the paroxysmal episode at Mt Etna on 12–13 January 2011, when we produced real-time predictions of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows while the eruption was still ongoing. This allowed key at-risk areas to be rapidly and appropriately identified.

A bio-inspired auditory perception model for amplitude-frequency clustering (keynote Paper)

In this paper a model for auditory perception is introduced. This model is based on a network of integrate-and-fire and resonate-and-fire neurons and is aimed to control the phonotaxis behavior of a roving robot. The starting point is the model of phonotaxis in Gryllus Bimaculatus: the model consists of four integrate-and-fire neurons and is able of discriminating the calling song of male cricket and orienting the robot towards the sound source. This paper aims to extend the model to include an amplitude-frequency clustering. The proposed spiking network shows different behaviors associated with different characteristics of the input signals (amplitude and frequency). The behavior implemented on the robot is similar to the cricket behavior, where some frequencies are associated with the calling song of male crickets, while other ones indicate the presence of predators. Therefore, the whole model for auditory perception is devoted to control different responses (attractive or repulsive) depending on the input characteristics. The performance of the control system has been evaluated with several experiments carried out on a roving robot.

Hot spot detection and effusion rate estimation using satellite data to drive lava flow simulations

We demonstrated how infrared satellite data can be used to drive numerical simulations of lava flow paths and produced a detailed chronology of lava flow emplacement while an eruptive event was ongoing. We evaluated the lava flow hazard on Etna volcano during the first 40 days of May 2008 eruption by means of the MAGFLOW cellular automata model. This model was developed for simulating lava flow paths and the temporal evolution of lava emplacement. Many data are necessary to run MAGFLOW and to determine how far lava will flow. However, for a given composition, the volumetric flux of lava from the vent (i.e. the lava effusion rate) is the principal parameter controlling final flow dimensions. Measuring effusion rates is therefore of great interest. To this end, we developed an automatic system that uses near-real-time infrared satellite data to estimate the lava effusion rates. Such system exploits the satellite data directly received and automatically processed by RST approach at CNR-IMAA, as input information for the prediction of the path lava flows. In particular, hotspots detected by RST, using both AVHRR and MODIS data, have been used to compute time-varying effusion rates, which have been applied to drive lava flow simulation using the original MAGFLOW cellular automata algorithm. Achieved results confirm the reliability of two methodologies (i.e. RST approach and MAGFLOW model), as well as the potential of the whole integrated processing chain, as an effective tool for real-time monitoring and mitigation of volcanic hazard.

Testing a geographical information system for damage and evacuation assessment during an effusive volcanic crisis

Abstract Using two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), we tested two geographical information systems (GISs) set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. The first was a local system that drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building type. The second was an experimental add-on to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) global warning system maintained by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) that draws information from open-access global data. After defining lava-flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), we ran all available lava-flow emplacement models to produce a projection for the likelihood of impact for all pixels within the GIS. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced, with those produced by both the local system and by GDACS being in good agreement. The exercise identified several shortcomings of the systems, but also indicated that the generation of a GDACS-type global response system for effusive crises that uses rapid-response model projections for lava inundation driven by real-time satellite hotspot detection – and open-access datasets – is within the current capabilities of the community.

INVERSE MODELING IN GEOPHYSICAL APPLICATIONS

The interpretation of the potential fleld data is an useful tool that allows for both investigating the subsurface structures and providing a quantitative evaluation of the geophysical process preceding and accompanying period of volcanic unrest. Potential fleld inversion problem are required to combine forward models with appropriate optimization algorithms and automatically flnd the best set of parameters that well matches the available observations. Indeed, investigations on the mathematical equations to be inverted, have revealed that these models are ill-posed and highly non-linear. Numerical methods for modeling potential fleld observations are proposed and applied on real dataset.