G. L. Stephens

Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model

A causal link has been invoked between inter-hemispheric albedo, cross-equatorial energy transport and the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias in climate models. Southern Ocean cloud biases are a major determinant of inter-hemispheric albedo biases in many models, including HadGEM2-ES, a fully coupled model with a dynamical ocean. In this study, targeted albedo corrections are applied in the Southern Ocean to explore the dynamical response to artificially reducing these biases. The Southern Hemisphere jet increases in strength in response to the increased tropical-extratropical temperature gradient, with increased energy transport into the mid-latitudes in the atmosphere, but no improvement is observed in the double-ITCZ bias or atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport, a finding which supports other recent work. The majority of the adjustment in energy transport in the tropics is achieved in the ocean, with the response further limited to the Pacific Ocean. As a result, the frequently argued teleconnection between the Southern Ocean and tropical precipitation biases is muted. Further experiments in which tropical longwave biases are also reduced do not yield improvement in the representation of the tropical atmosphere. These results suggest that the dramatic improvements in tropical precipitation that have been shown in previous studies may be a function of the lack of dynamical ocean and/or the simplified hemispheric albedo bias corrections applied in that work. It further suggests that efforts to correct the double ITCZ problem in coupled models that focus on large-scale energetic controls will prove fruitless without improvements in the representation of atmospheric processes.

Estimating snow microphysical properties using collocated multisensor observations

The ability of ground-based in situ and remote sensing observations to constrain microphysical properties for dry snow is examined using a Bayesian optimal estimation retrieval method. Power functions describing the variation of mass and horizontally projected area with particle size and a parameter related to particle shape are retrieved from near-Rayleigh radar reflectivity, particle size distribution, snowfall rate, and size-resolved particle fall speeds. Algorithm performance is explored in the context of instruments deployed during the Canadian CloudSat CALIPSO Validation Project, but the algorithm is adaptable to other similar combinations of sensors. Critical estimates of observational and forward model uncertainties are developed and used to quantify the performance of the method using synthetic cases developed from actual observations of snow events. In addition to illustrating the technique, the results demonstrate that this combination of sensors provides useful constraints on the mass parameters and on the coefficient of the area power function but only weakly constrains the exponent of the area power function and the shape parameter. Information content metrics show that about two independent quantities are measured by the suite of observations and that the method is able to resolve about eight distinct realizations of the state vector containing the mass and area power function parameters. Alternate assumptions about observational and forward model uncertainties reveal that improved modeling of particle fall speeds could contribute substantial improvements to the performance of the method.

RaInCube: a proposed constellation of atmospheric profiling radars in cubesat

Numerical climate and weather models depend on measurements from space-borne satellites to complete model validation and improvements. Precipitation profiling capabilities are currently limited to a few instruments deployed in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), which cannot provide the temporal resolution necessary to observe the evo- lution of short time-scale weather phenomena and improve numerical weather prediction models. A constellation of cloud- and precipitation-profiling instruments in LEO would provide this essential capability, but the cost and timeframe of typical satellite platforms and instruments constitute a possibly prohibitive challenge. A new radar instrument architecture that is compatible with low-cost satellite platforms, such as CubeSats and SmallSats, has been designed at JPL. Its small size, moderate mass and low power requirement enable constellation missions, which will vastly expand our ability to observe weather systems and their dynamics and thermodynamics at sub-diurnal time scales down to the temporal resolutions required to observe developing convection. In turn, this expanded observational ability can revolutionize weather now-casting and medium-range forecasting, and enable crucial model improvements to improve climate predictions.

Contemplating synergistic algorithms for the NASA ACE Mission

ACE is a proposed Tier 2 NASA Decadal Survey mission that will focus on clouds, aerosols, and precipitation as well as ocean ecosystems. The primary objective of the clouds component of this mission is to advance our ability to predict changes to the Earth’s hydrological cycle and energy balance in response to climate forcings by generating observational constraints on future science questions, especially those associated with the effects of aerosol on clouds and precipitation. ACE will continue and extend the measurement heritage that began with the A-Train and that will continue through Earthcare. ACE planning efforts have identified several data streams that can contribute significantly to characterizing the properties of clouds and precipitation and the physical processes that force these properties. These include dual frequency Doppler radar, high spectral resolution lidar, polarimetric visible imagers, passive microwave and submillimeter wave radiometry. While all these data streams are technologically feasible, their total cost is substantial and likely prohibitive. It is, therefore, necessary to critically evaluate their contributions to the ACE science goals. We have begun developing algorithms to explore this trade space. Specifically, we will describe our early exploratory algorithms that take as input the set of potential ACE-like data streams and evaluate critically to what extent each data stream influences the error in a specific cloud quantity retrieval.