Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt

If Alonso Was Right: Modeling Accessibility and Explaining the Residential Land Gradient

This study provides an empirical evaluation of employment accessibility as a determinant of urban land price. We find that the monocentric model, despite recent criticism, can perform satisfyingly if the hedonic value of land is identified in an account of structural and neighborhood characteristics. Gravity employment accessibility measures, however, can explain the residential land gradient entirely and disentangle positive accessibility effects from negative congestion effects related to transport infrastructure. They can therefore be recommended as an appropriate mean to account for labor market accessibility in an environment of dispersed employment, at least if the transport geography is accounted for.

Substitutability and Complementarity of Urban Amenities: External Effects of Built Heritage in Berlin

This article analyzes the impact of designated landmarks on condominium transaction prices in Berlin, Germany. We test for price differentials between listed and nonlisted properties and study their impact on surrounding property prices. The proximity to built heritage is captured by the distance to listed houses and heritage potentiality indicators. Impact is assessed by applying a hedonic model to microlevel data, and this process also addresses spatial dependency. While our findings suggest that designated landmarks do not sell at a premium or discount, landmarks are found to have positive external effects on surrounding property prices within a distance of approximately 600 m.

Arenas, arena architecture and the impact on location desirability: the case of `Olympic Arenas' in Prenzlauer Berg, Berlin

This paper investigates impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg, Germany, employing highly disaggregated data on land values. The three arenas, their architecture and location within the city were explicitly designed to contribute to revitalisation of their economically deprived neighbourhoods. A difference-in-differences approach is employed to check for structural breaks in development of land values within areas of potential impact. The results suggest that arenas emanate positive externalities that improve location desirability in their neighbourhoods. However, evidence also supports concerns that the negative external effects of arenas may adversely affect neighbourhoods, when not addressed appropriately during planning.

Assessing External Effects of City Airports: Land Values in Berlin

This paper employs a hedonic price model to explain standard land values in Berlin. Impact on land values is assessed for the two city airports situated in Berlin, Germany, Tempelhof and Tegel. Empirical results confirm expectations about the impact of various attributes on land values. Areas exposed to noise pollution of downtown airport Tempelhof sell at a discount of approximately 5-9% within a distance of 5000 m along the air corridor. No significantly negative impact was found for land values around Tegel Airport, which is located in a central, but less densely populated, area. Market access indicators created for all three Berlin airports in operation, including Berlin Schoenefeld International Airport, reveal clear location advantages in terms of accessibility of Tempelhof and Tegel compared to Schoenefeld Airport, where the new Berlin Brandenburg International Airport is about to be developed.

If we build it, will they pay? Predicting property price effects of transport innovations

In this study I apply a gravity-type labor-market accessibility model to the Greater London Area to investigate house price capitalization effects. The spatial scope of labor-market effects is found to be about 60 minutes. Doubling accessibility increases the utility of an average household by about 12%. I combine the gravity approach with a transport decision model that takes into account the urban rail network architecture, allows for mode switching, and thus accounts for the effective accessibility offered by a station, to predict the property price effects of the 1999 Jubilee Line and DLR extension. A considerable degree of heterogeneity is predicted both in terms of the magnitude as well as the spatial extent of price effects around new stations. A quasi-experimental property price analysis reveals that the model performs well in predicting the effective capitalization effects, suggesting that the approach might be a viable ingredient in transport planning.

The Role of Architecture on Urban Revitalisation: The Case of Olympic Arenas in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg

This paper investigates socioeconomic impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg, Germany. The three arenas were chosen for their potential to contribute to revitalisation of their economically deprived neighbourhoods. We employ a difference-in-differences approach to check for structural breaks in development of land values within areas of potential impact. Our results suggest that arenas emanate positive externalities and apparently have accelerated the process of gentrification going on in Prenzlauer Berg. However, evidence also supports concerns that congestion problems may adversely affect property values, at least when not addressed appropriately during planning.

Impact of Non-Smoking Ordinances on Hospitality Revenues: The Case of Germany

Non-smoking ordinances are among the most popular albeit controversial public health-care legislations worldwide. This article provides an empirical assessment of the impact of non-smoking ordinances on bar and restaurant revenues in German Federal States. By application of panel spline regression and difference-in-difference strategies, we find negative impact limited to bars in the very short run. If any, there is a positive impact on total expenditures in the long run, indicating that either consumption pattern has not changed at all or that any reduction in spending by smokers is compensated for by a corresponding increase by non-smokers. These findings support the German – and similar – non-smoking legislations in the sense that positive externalities resulting from reduced health care cost are likely to outweigh the risk to businesses in the hospitality sector, at least in the long run.

Game of Zones: The Political Economy of Conservation Areas

Provided there are positive external benefits attached to the historic character of buildings, owners of properties in designated conservation areas benefit from a reduction in uncertainty regarding the future of their area. At the same time, the restrictions put in place to ensure the preservation of the historic character limit the degree to which properties can be altered and thus impose a cost to their owners. We test a simple theory of the designation process in which we postulate that the level of designation is chosen to comply with interests of local homeowners. The implication of the model is that a) an increase in preferences for historic character should increase the likelihood of a designation, and b) new designations at the margin should not be associated with significant house price capitalization effects. Our empirical results are in line with these predictions.

Valuing Iconic Design: Frank Lloyd Wright Architecture in Oak Park, Illinois

This study investigates the willingness of homebuyers to pay for co-location with iconic architecture. Oak Park, Illinois, was chosen as the study area given its unique claim of having 24 residential structures designed by world-famous American architect Frank Lloyd Wright, in addition to dozens of other designated landmarks and three preservation districts. This study adds to the limited body of existing literature on the external price effects of architectural design and is unique in its focus on residential architecture. We find a premium of about 8.5 per cent within 50–100 m of the nearest Wright building and about 5 per cent within 0–50 m. These results indicate that an external premium to iconic architecture does exist, although it may partially be attributable to the prominence of the architect.

Terrorism and the Regional and Religious Risk Perception of Foreigners: The Case of German Tourists

This paper analyses how German tourists react to unanticipated shocks that alter their risk perception of selected tourism destinations. Using a difference-in-difference strategy which flexibly accounts for macroeconomic conditions and also addresses potential problems of serial correlation, we isolate significant effects of the 9/11 (2001) terrorist attacks, as well as for the attacks in Egypt (1997), Tunisia (2002), Morocco (2003) and Indonesia (2003). These terror attacks impacted especially on Islamic countries all over the world, indicating a transmission mechanism driven by ethnic and religious proximity. At the same time, tourism into Islamic countries was temporarily substituted by tourism to (south) European countries.