Gabriele Ameri

Pan-European ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV, and 5 %-damped PSA at spectral periods up to 3.0 s using the RESORCE dataset

This article presents a set of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for Europe and the Middle East, derived from the RESORCE strong motion data bank, following a standard regression approach. The parametric GMPEs are derived for the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5 %-damped pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra computed over 23 periods between 0.02 and 3 s, considering the average horizontal-component ground-motions. The GMPEs are valid for distances less than 300 km, hypocentral depth up to 35 km and over the magnitude range 4–7.6. Two metrics for the source-to-station distance (i.e. Joyner-Boore and hypocentral) are considered. The selected dataset is composed by 2,126 recordings (at a period of 0.1 s) related to 365 earthquakes, that includes strong-motion data from 697 stations.The EC8 soil classification (four classes from A to D) discriminates recording sites and four classes (normal, reverse, strike-slip, and unspecified) describe the style of faulting. A subset which contains only stations with measured Vs30 and earthquakes with specified focal mechanism (1,224 records from 345 stations and 255 earthquakes) is used to test of the accuracy of the median prediction and the variability associated to the broader data set. A random effect regression scheme is applied and bootstrap analyses are performed to estimate the 95 % confidence levels for the parameters. The total standard deviation sigma is decomposed into between-events and within-event components, and the site-to-site component is evaluated as well. The results show that the largest contribution to the total sigma is coming from the within-event component. When analyzing the residual distributions, no significant trends are observed that can be ascribed to the earthquake type (mainshock-aftershock classification) or to the non-linear site effects. The proposed GMPEs have lower median values than global models at short periods and large distances, while are consistent with global models at long periods \((\hbox {T} > 1)\) s. Consistency is found with two regional models developed for Turkey and Italy, as the considered dataset is dominated by waveforms recorded in these regions.

Comparisons among the five ground-motion models developed using RESORCE for the prediction of response spectral accelerations due to earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East

This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan.

Ground-Motion Simulations for the 1980 M 6.9 Irpinia Earthquake (Southern Italy) and Scenario Events

In this paper, we adopt three ground-motion simulation techniques (the stochastic finite-fault simulation code from Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005; the hybrid deterministic-stochastic approach with approximated Greens functions from Pacor et al., 2005; and the broadband hybrid integral-composite technique with full-wavefield Greens functions from Gallovic and Brokesova, 2007), with the aim of investigating the different performances in near-fault strong-motion modeling andpredictionfrompastandfutureevents.Thetestcaseisthe1980M6.9Irpiniaearth- quake, the strongest event recorded in Italy in the last 30 years. First, we simulate the recorded strong-motion data and validate the model parameters by computing spectral accelerationandpeakamplituderesidualdistributions.Thevalidatedmodelisthenused to investigate the influence of site effects and to compute synthetic ground motions around the fault. Afterward, we simulate the expected ground motions from scenario events on the Irpinia fault, varying the hypocenters, the rupture velocities, and the slip distributions. We compare the median ground motions and related standard deviations from all scenario events with empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The synthetic median values are included in the median 1 standard deviation of the considered GMPEs. Synthetic peak ground accelerations show median values smaller and with a faster decay with distance than the empirical ones. The synthetics total stan- dard deviation is of the same order or smaller than the empirical one, and it shows considerable differences from one simulation technique to another. We decomposed the total standard deviation into its between-scenario and within-scenario components. The larger contribution to the total sigma comes from the latter, while the former is found to be smaller and in good agreement with empirical interevent variability. Online Material: Comparison of observed and simulated waveforms and spectra.

Ground-Motion Simulations for the M 6.9 Irpinia 1980 Earthquake (Southern Italy) and Scenario Events

In this paper, we adopt three ground-motion simulation techniques (the stochastic finite-fault simulation code from Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005; the hybrid deterministic-stochastic approach with approximated Greens functions from Pacor et al., 2005; and the broadband hybrid integral-composite technique with full-wavefield Greens functions from Gallovic and Brokesova, 2007), with the aim of investigating the different performances in near-fault strong-motion modeling andpredictionfrompastandfutureevents.Thetestcaseisthe1980M6.9Irpiniaearth- quake, the strongest event recorded in Italy in the last 30 years. First, we simulate the recorded strong-motion data and validate the model parameters by computing spectral accelerationandpeakamplituderesidualdistributions.Thevalidatedmodelisthenused to investigate the influence of site effects and to compute synthetic ground motions around the fault. Afterward, we simulate the expected ground motions from scenario events on the Irpinia fault, varying the hypocenters, the rupture velocities, and the slip distributions. We compare the median ground motions and related standard deviations from all scenario events with empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The synthetic median values are included in the median 1 standard deviation of the considered GMPEs. Synthetic peak ground accelerations show median values smaller and with a faster decay with distance than the empirical ones. The synthetics total stan- dard deviation is of the same order or smaller than the empirical one, and it shows considerable differences from one simulation technique to another. We decomposed the total standard deviation into its between-scenario and within-scenario components. The larger contribution to the total sigma comes from the latter, while the former is found to be smaller and in good agreement with empirical interevent variability. Online Material: Comparison of observed and simulated waveforms and spectra.

Toward an empirical ground motion prediction equation for France: accounting for regional differences in the source stress parameter

In low-to-moderate seismicity regions such as metropolitan France, characterized by limited strong-motion records in the magnitude-distance range of interest for seismic hazard assessment, the derivation of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is a major challenge. In this study, we take advantage of the RESORCE-2013 database (http://resorce-portal.eu/) that contains uniformly processed records for the Pan-European region including relevant number of French records. After discussing the metadata for French events and stations, we first derive a base-case GMPE that is used to investigate the within-event and between-event residuals. The short-period between-event residuals for French (and Swiss) events show larger variability with respect to larger magnitude events in other regions. We show that the between-event residuals are clearly correlated with the stress parameter and that such larger variability can be explained by accounting for stress-parameter scaling. We derive an empirical scaling of ground motion with stress parameter that is consistent across regions and with the scaling predicted by stochastic GMPEs. This suggests that the scaling of ground motion with stress parameter for a given magnitude is largely region independent whereas the absolute stress parameter values may vary regionally. Based on these results we propose to adopt the scaling model as a function of stress parameter and magnitude by Yenier and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 105(4):1989–2009, 2015) by adapting the reference stress parameter to our target regions. By accounting for stress parameter scaling in the GMPE we reduce the between-event variability for French and Swiss small-magnitude events. Finally, we investigate the aleatory variability (σ) of the GMPE and its components (τ, ϕ, ϕss). We propose a heteroscedastic σ model to be used when the stress-parameter scaling is not considered in the GMPEs due to lack of information. If enough information on the stress-parameter is available the adjusted GMPE can be applied using a homoscedastic σ. Despite using small events, the ϕss for French stations is found to be consistent with other studies and confirms the stability of ϕss across different regions and datasets.

Intensity predictive attenuation models calibrated in Mw for metropolitan France

In the framework of the SIGMA project, a study was launched to develop a parametric earthquake catalog for the historical period, covering the metropolitan territory and calibrated in Mw. A set of candidate calibration events was selected corresponding to earthquakes felt over a part of the French metropolitan territory, which are fairly well documented both in terms of macroseismic intensity distributions (SisFrance BRGM-EDF-IRSN) and magnitude estimates. The detailed analysis of the macroseismic data led us to retain only 30 events out of 65 with Mw ranging from 3.6 to 5.8. In order to supplement the dataset with data from larger magnitude events, Italian earthquakes were also considered (11 events posterior to 1900 with Mw ≥ 6.0 out of 15 in total), using both the DBMI11 macroseismic database (Locati et al. in Seismol Resour Lett 85(3):727–734, 2014) and the parametric information from the CPTI11 (Rovida et al. in CPTI11, la versione 2011 del Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica et Vulcanologia, Milano, Bologna, 2011. https://doi.org/10.6092/ingv.it-cpti11). To avoid introducing bias related to the differences in terms of intensity scales (MSK vs. MCS), only intensities smaller than or equal to VII were considered (Traversa et al. in On the use of cross-border macroseismic data to improve the estimation of past earthquakes seismological parameters, 2014). Mw and depth metadata were defined according to the Si-Hex catalogue (Cara et al. in Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3–19, 2015. https://doi.org/10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3), published information, and to the specific worked conducted within SIGMA related to early instrumental recordings (Benjumea et al. in Study of instrumented earthquakes that occurred during the first part of the 20th century (1905–1962), 2015). For the depth estimates, we also performed a macroseismic analysis to evaluate the range of plausible estimates and check the consistency of the solutions. Uncertainties on the metadata related to the calibration earthquakes were evaluated using the range of available alternative estimates. The intensity attenuation models were developed using a one-step maximum likelihood scheme. Several mathematical formulations and sub-datasets were considered to evaluate the robustness of the results (similarly to Baumont and Scotti in Accounting for data and modeling uncertainties in empirical macroseismic predictive equations (EMPEs). Towards “European” EMPEs based on SISFRANCE, DBMI, ECOS macroseismic database, 2008). In particular, as the region of interest may be characterized by significant laterally varying attenuation properties (Bakun and Scotti in Geophys J Int 164:596–610, 2006; Gasperini in Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:826–841, 2001), we introduced regional attenuation terms to account for this variability. Two zonation schemes were tested, one at the national scale (France/Italy), another at the regional scale based on the studies of Mayor et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0124-8) for France and Gasperini (2001) for Italy. Between and within event residuals were analyzed in detail to identify the best models, that is, the ones associated with the best misfit and most limited residual trends with intensity and distance. This analysis led us to select four sets of models for which no significant trend in the between- and within-event residuals is detected. These models are considered to be valid over a wide range of Mw covering ~ 3.5–7.0.