Gabrielle Wong-Parodi

Risks and Risk Governance in Unconventional Shale Gas Development

A broad assessment is provided of the current state of knowledge regarding the risks associated with shale gas development and their governance. For the principal domains of risk, we identify observed and potential hazards and promising mitigation options to address them, characterizing current knowledge and research needs. Important unresolved research questions are identified for each area of risk; however, certain domains exhibit especially acute deficits of knowledge and attention, including integrated studies of public health, ecosystems, air quality, socioeconomic impacts on communities, and climate change. For these, current research and analysis are insufficient to either confirm or preclude important impacts. The rapidly evolving landscape of shale gas governance in the U.S. is also assessed, noting challenges and opportunities associated with the current decentralized (state-focused) system of regulation. We briefly review emerging approaches to shale gas governance in other nations, and consider new governance initiatives and options in the U.S. involving voluntary industry certification, comprehensive development plans, financial instruments, and possible future federal roles. In order to encompass the multiple relevant disciplines, address the complexities of the evolving shale gas system and reduce the many key uncertainties needed for improved management, a coordinated multiagency federal research effort will need to be implemented.

Team science for science communication

Natural scientists from Climate Central and social scientists from Carnegie Mellon University collaborated to develop science communications aimed at presenting personalized coastal flood risk information to the public. We encountered four main challenges: agreeing on goals; balancing complexity and simplicity; relying on data, not intuition; and negotiating external pressures. Each challenge demanded its own approach. We navigated agreement on goals through intensive internal communication early on in the project. We balanced complexity and simplicity through evaluation of communication materials for user understanding and scientific content. Early user test results that overturned some of our intuitions strengthened our commitment to testing communication elements whenever possible. Finally, we did our best to negotiate external pressures through regular internal communication and willingness to compromise.

A method to evaluate the usability of interactive climate change impact decision aids

Reducing the impacts from climate change requires people to make decisions that may prompt substantial changes in their lives. One possible way to help them is with personalized decision aids. Here we describe a method for evaluating such aids, in terms of how they affect users’ understanding of their situation, defined in terms of their (a) knowledge, (b) consistency of preferences, and (c) active mastery of the material. Our method provides a simple way to evaluate the usability of climate-change decision aids, and to address concerns that the choice of display could bias users’ attitudes. We demonstrate it with the Surging Seas Risk Finder, a decision aid focused on coastal flooding (http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/).

Public perceptions of local flood risk and the role of climate change

The IPCC reports that climate change will pose increased risks of heatwaves and flooding. Although survey-based studies have examined links between public perceptions of hot weather and climate change beliefs, relatively little is known about people’s perceptions of changes in flood risks, the extent to which climate change is perceived to contribute to changes in flood risks, or how such perceptions vary by political affiliation. We discuss findings from a survey of long-time residents of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, a region that has experienced regular flooding. Our participants perceived local flood risks as having increased and expected further increase in the future; expected higher future flood risks if they believed more in the contribution of climate change; interpreted projections of future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change; and perceived similar increases in flood risks independent of their political affiliation despite disagreeing about climate change. Overall, these findings suggest that communications about climate change adaptation will be more effective if they focus more on protection against local flood risks, especially when targeting audiences of potential climate sceptics.

The impacts of political cues and practical information on climate change decisions

Adapting to climate change will require people to make measured decisions, informed by the science relevant to those choices. Communicating that science is complicated by the politicization of the topic. In two studies, we ask how political cues, designed to evoke individuals’ sense of identity as believers or nonbelievers in global warming, affect a hypothetical decision: buying a home vulnerable to coastal flooding exacerbated by global warming using the Zillow® real estate website. In both studies, we manipulate participants’ frame of reference by focusing them on risks due to ‘elevation’, ‘global warming’, or both, or mentioning neither. We also examine how immersion in practical details affects the power of these cues by manipulating whether participants have access to Risk Finder (http://sealevel.climatecentral.org), an interactive decision aid. Study 1 asks about global warming beliefs after their decision; Study 2 asks beforehand. Both find that immersion in practical information, using Risk Finder, overrode political identity cues. When framed in terms of both elevation and global warming and without explicit expression of global warming beliefs (Study 1), participants’ responses reflected their beliefs. The results suggest that communications should acknowledge political differences and then focus on practical decisions and the science that can inform them.

The role of initial affective impressions in responses to educational communications: The case of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS).

Emerging technologies promise potential benefits at a potential cost. Developers of educational communications aim to improve peoples understanding and to facilitate public debate. However, even relatively uninformed recipients may have initial feelings that are difficult to change. We report that peoples initial affective impressions about carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), a low-carbon coal-based electricity-generation technology with which most people are unfamiliar, influences how they interpret previously validated education materials. As a result, even individuals who had originally self-identified as uninformed persisted in their initial feelings after reading the educational communication-though perseverance of feelings about CCS was stronger among recipients who had originally self-identified as relatively informed (Study 1). Moreover, uninformed recipients whose initial feelings were experimentally manipulated by relatively uninformative pro-CCS or anti-CCS arguments persisted in their manipulated feelings after reading the educational communication, due to evaluating the educational communication in line with their manipulated impressions (Study 2). Hence, our results suggest that educational communications will have more impact if they are disseminated before people form strong feelings about the topic under consideration, especially if these are based on little to no factual understanding.

Perceptions of electricity-use communications: effects of information, format, and individual differences

Electricity bills could be an effective strategy for improving communications about consumers’ electricity use and promoting electricity savings. However, quantitative communications about electricity use may be difficult to understand, especially for consumers with low energy literacy. Here, we build on the health communication and graph comprehension literature to inform electricity bill design, with the goal of improving understanding, preferences for the presented communication, and intentions to save electricity. In a survey-based experiment, each participant saw a hypothetical electricity bill for a family with relatively high electricity use, covering information about (a) historical use, (b) comparisons to neighbors, and (c) historical use with appliance breakdown. Participants saw all information types in one of three formats including (a) tables, (b) bar graphs, and (c) icon graphs. We report on three main findings. First, consumers understood each type of electricity-use information the most when it was presented in a table, perhaps because tables facilitate simple point reading. Second, preferences and intentions to save electricity were the strongest for the historical use information, independent of format. Third, individuals with lower energy literacy understood all information less. We discuss implications for designing utility bills that are understandable, perceived as useful, and motivate consumers to save energy.

Plans and Prospects for Coastal Flooding in Four Communities Affected by Sandy

AbstractThe risk of coastal flooding is increasing due to more frequent intense storm events, rising sea levels, and more people living in flood-prone areas. Although private adaptation measures can reduce damage and risk, most people living in risk-prone areas take only a fraction of those measures voluntarily. The present study examines relationships among individuals’ beliefs and actions regarding flood-related risks based on in-depth interviews and structured surveys in communities deeply affected by Superstorm Sandy. The authors find that residents recognize the risk of coastal flooding and expect it to increase, although they appear to underestimate by how much. Although interview participants typically cited climate change as affecting the risks that they face, survey respondents’ acceptance of climate change was unrelated to their willingness to tolerate coastal flooding risks, their beliefs about the effectiveness of community-level mitigation measures, or their willingness to take individual act...

Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A ‘Mental Models’ Approach

As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing communications that are truthful, brief, relevant, clear, and tested for effectiveness. Here, we discuss the ‘mental models’ approach towards developing communications, which aims to help experts to meet the maxims of effective communications, and to better inform the judgments and decisions of non-expert audiences.

Factors Influencing (Mal)adaptive Responses to Natural Disasters: The Case of Hurricane Matthew

AbstractClimate-related disasters are on the rise, with a 44% increase between 1994 and 2013, and the population at risk is ever growing. The need to help people protect their well-being, families,...