Gaël Raballand

Are Rural Road Investments Alone Sufficient to Generate Transport Flows? Lessons from a Randomized Experiment in Rural Malawi and Policy Implications

This paper draws lessons from an original randomized experiment in Malawi. In order to understand why roads in relatively good condition in rural areas may not be used by buses, a minibus service was subsidized over a six-month period over a distance of 20 kilometers to serve five villages. Using randomly allocated prices for use of the bus, this experiment demonstrates that at very low prices, bus usage is high. Bus usage decreases rapidly with increased prices. However, based on the results on take-up and minibus provider surveys, the experiment demonstrates that at any price, low (with high usage) or high (with low usage), a bus service provider never breaks even on this road. This can contribute to explain why walking or cycling is so widespread on most rural roads in Sub-Saharan Africa. In terms of policy implications, this experiment explains that motorized services need to be subsidized; otherwise a road in good condition will most probably not lead to provision of service at an affordable price for the local population.

Entrepôt for Chinese Consumer Goods in Central Asia: The Puzzle of Re-exports through Kyrgyz Bazaars

Relying on mirror foreign trade statistics and their reconciliation with official data on balance of payments, two economists demonstrate the important role of bazaars as major conduits of trade in Central Asia, and particularly of Kyrgyz bazaars for the entry of Chinese consumer goods into the region. The authors estimate that in recent years up to three quarters of the goods imported by Kyrgyzstan have been unofficially re-exported to other Central Asian countries, generating substantial income for the Kyrgyz economy. A concluding section explores the implications of the re-export trade for Kyrgyzstan (e.g., positive spillovers for domestic light industry) as well as the potential emergence of new competitors (e.g., Kazakhstan).

Central Asia: the New Silk Road Initiative’s questionable economic rationality

This paper explores how the New Silk Road Initiative, which is presented as a concept founded on economic rationality, tends to offer an ideological perspective on transport and trade for the Central Asian region. The New Silk Road Initiative advocates for more transport infrastructure in Central Asia without tackling the most significant barriers to trade: production patterns, widespread corruption, and poor management practices at borders.

Are There Myths on Road Impact and Transport in Sub‐Saharan Africa?

As planned large investments in road infrastructure continue to be high on the agenda of many African countries, only few of these countries have actually ammended their investments strategy. In many cases, there seems to be a preference for a status quo that can easily be explained by political economy factors driving the policies in the sector. This paper first presents data on the state of roads in Sub-Saharan Africa (length, density, condition) as well as on investments in the sector over the last decades. It then demonstrates how most countries strategies are based on some misperceptions and recommends some changes to improve the developmental impact of roads investments. Better prioritization of investments, better procurement and contract management, better projects implementation and better monitoring are still needed, in spite of the efforts observed in the last 10 years.

Roads and Diversification of Activities in Rural Areas: A Cameroon Case Study

type=main xml:id=dpr12111-abs-0001> This article uses the 2001 Cameroon National Household Survey (ECAM II) to analyse how road access affects labour activities. It shows that one-size-fits-all road investments are irrelevant because the effects of roads are neither systematic nor uniform: the impacts of isolation on household well-being through labour-market opportunities are heterogeneous and depend on local characteristics. In view of the diversification of activities in household strategy, it finds that better road access increases the number of activities within those households that are most isolated.

''Asiaregio'': An Institutional Model to Deepen Integration in Central Asia's Border Regions

Despite the high level of movement of people and goods among Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, laws governing cross-border movements neither accord preferential treatment to residents of bordering regions nor provide institutional structures that would foster cross-border cooperation. Such laws constitute barriers to deepening cross-border cooperation. Moreover, decisions concerning cross-border movements of people, goods, and services are controlled by central governments: local governments cannot act on their own to cooperate with foreign entities. Consequently, and given the various degrees of decentralization in decision-making, local trans-border initiatives face serious administrative barriers. This article argues that there is the large potential for growth that lies untapped due to the obstacles to cross-border development activities and proposes adapting the institutional concept of regional cooperation between bordering regions in neighboring countries, modeled after Euroregions, to countries in Central Asian. Their advantage would lie in establishing structures for cooperation in areas ranging from commerce to culture, environment, tourism, and education.Despite the high level of movement of people and goods among Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, laws governing cross-border movements neither accord preferential treatment to resid...

Algeria - Mali trade : the normality of informality

This paper estimates the volume of informal trade between Algeria and Mali and analyzes its determinants and mechanisms, using a multi-pronged methodology. In addition to mirror statistics analysis, we provide evidence of the importance of informal trade, drawing on satellite images and surveys with informal traders in Mali and Algeria. We estimate that the weekly turnover of informal trade fell from approximately US

Literature Findings and Methodological Considerations

2 million in 2011 to US

The Impact of Demand on Container Dwell Time

0.74 million in 2014, but that trade continues to play a crucial role in the economies of northern Mali and southern Algeria. We also show that official trade statistics are meaningless in this context because they capture less than 3% of total trade. Meanwhile, profit margins of 20–30% on informal trade help to explain the relative prosperity of northern Mali. Informal trade probably plays a strong role in poverty reduction, especially in the Kidal region.

Central Asia's transport cost burden and its impact on trade

This chapter presents both findings from the literature and methodological considerations from a worldwide perspective. Despite the paucity of research in this field for Sub-Saharan Africa, the findings from other countries are relevant to countries in the region. However, as demonstrated in this report, some specificities in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as abnormally long cargo dwell times, the dominance of the general trading model, a lack of competition in some sectors of the economy, and the importance of cash constraints, may weaken the incentive to move goods rapidly through the port.