Gaetana Ganci

Lava flow hazards at Mount Etna: constraints imposed by eruptive history and numerical simulations

Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. Here, we present a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct two hazard maps, one for flank and the other for summit eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps of Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas.

A texton-based cloud detection algorithm for MSG-SEVIRI multispectral images

A new statistical texton-based method for cloud detection through satellite image analysis is presented. The ultimate goal is to improve the performance of remote sensing techniques used to support the observations of active volcanic processes. The proposed method is a supervised classifier that exploits radiance spatial correlation in satellite images using a statistical descriptor of texture called texton. Cloudy and clear-sky models are determined using cluster analysis over the image features. The pixels to be classified are compared with the estimated models and assigned to the closest model. The cloud detection algorithm has been tested on a data set of MSG-SEVIRI images acquired during 2008 (about 35,000 images) of the Sicily area. Results show that the texton-based approach is robust in terms of percentage of correctly classified pixels, reaching more than 85% of success in both daytime and nighttime images.

Lidar surveys reveal eruptive volumes and rates at Etna, 2007–2010

The quantification of eruptive activity represents one major challenge in volcanology. Digital comparison of lidar-based elevation models of Etna (Italy) was made to quantify the volumes of volcanics emitted in 2007–2010. During this period, Etna produced several summit paroxysms followed by a flank eruption. We integrated the total volume difference resulting from the subtraction of the 2007 and 2010 digital elevation models with volumes of eruptive products based on field and aerial surveys to attribute volumes with hitherto unrealized precision to poorly constrained eruptions. The total erupted volume of 2007–2010 is >86 × 106 m3, most (~74 × 106 m3) of which is made up by the lava flows of the 2008–2009 flank eruption. The survey also reveals the high lava volume (5.73 × 106 m3) and average eruption rate (~400 m3 s−1) of the 10 May 2008 paroxysm, whose flow front stopped 6.2 km from the vent, not far from the town of Zafferana Etnea.

MAGFLOW: a physics-based model for the dynamics of lava-flow emplacement

Abstract The MAGFLOW model for lava-flow simulations is based on the cellular automaton (CA) approach, and uses a physical model for the thermal and rheological evolution of the flowing lava. We discuss the potential of MAGFLOW to improve our understanding of the dynamics of lava-flow emplacement and our ability to assess lava-flow hazards. Sensitivity analysis of the input parameters controlling the evolution function of the automaton demonstrates that water content and solidus temperatures are the parameters to which MAGFLOW is most sensitive. Additional tests also indicate that temporal changes in effusion rate strongly influence the accuracy of the predictive modelling of lava-flow paths. The parallel implementation of MAGFLOW on graphic processing units (GPUs) can achieve speed-ups of two orders of magnitude relative to the corresponding serial implementation, providing a lava-flow simulation spanning several days of eruption in just a few minutes. We describe and demonstrate the operation of MAGFLOW using two case studies from Mt Etna: one is a reconstruction of the detailed chronology of the lava-flow emplacement during the 2006 flank eruption; and the other is the production of the lava-flow hazard map of the persistent eruptive activity at the summit craters.

Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2014–2015 Fogo eruption, Cape Verde

Acknowledgments Thanks are due to European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) for SEVIRI data (www.eumetsat.int) and to National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for MODIS data (modis.gsfc.nasa.gov). Landsat 8 OLI and Eo-1 ALI images are courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey (earthexplorer. usgs.gov). We are grateful to the Copernicus emergency management service (emergency.copernicus.eu/ mapping/list-of-components/EMSR111) for mapping the actual lava flow field by Cosmo-SkyMed and Pleiades images. We thank the Cartografica de Canarias, S.A. (www.grafcan.es) for making the Digital Elevation Model of Fogo Island available. HOTSAT and MAGFLOW were developed in the frame of the TecnoLab, the Laboratory for the Technological Advance in Volcano Geophysics, organized by INGV-CT and UNICT (Italy).

Why Does a Mature Volcano Need New Vents? The Case of the New Southeast Crater at Etna

Mature volcanoes usually erupt from a persistent summit crater. Permanent shifts in vent location are expected to occur after significant structural variations and are seldom documented. Here we provide such an example that recently occurred at Etna. Eruptive activity at Mount Etna during 2007 focused at the Southeast Crater (SEC), the youngest (formed in 1971) and most active of the four summit craters, and consisted of six paroxysmal episodes. The related erupted volumes, determined by field-based measurements and radiant heat flux curves measured by satellite, totalled 8.67 x 106 m3. The first four episodes occurred, between late-March and early-May, from the summit of the SEC and short fissures on its flanks. The last two episodes occurred, in September and November, from a new vent (“pit crater” or “proto-NSEC”) at the SE base of the SEC cone; this marked the definitive demise of the old SEC and the shift to the new vent. The latter, fed by NW-SE striking dikes propagating from the SEC conduit, formed since early 2011 an independent cone (the New Southeast Crater, or “NSEC”) at the base of the SEC. Detailed geodetic reconstruction and structural field observations allow defining the surface deformation pattern of Mount Etna in the last decade. These suggest that the NSEC developed under the NE-SW trending tensile stresses on the volcano summit promoted by accelerated instability of the NE flank of the volcano during inflation periods. The development of the NSEC is not only important from a structural point of view, as its formation may also lead to an increase in volcanic hazard. The case of the NSEC at Etna here reported shows how flank instability may control the distribution and impact of volcanism, including the prolonged shift of the summit vent activity in a mature volcano.

GPUSPH: a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics model for the thermal and rheological evolution of lava flows

Abstract GPUSPH is a fully three-dimensional model for the simulation of the thermal and rheological evolution of lava flows that relies on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) numerical method. Thanks to the Lagrangian, meshless nature of SPH, the model incorporates a more complete physical description of the emplacement process and rheology of lava that considers the free surface, the irregular boundaries represented by the topography, the solidification fronts and the non-Newtonian rheology with temperature-dependent parameters. GPUSPH follows the very general Herschel–Bulkley rheological model, which encompasses Newtonian, power-law and Bingham flow behaviours, with both constant and temperature-dependent parameters, and can thus be used to explore in detail the impact of rheology on the behaviour of lava flows and on their emplacement. To illustrate this possibility, we present some preliminary applications of the model for studying the rheology of lava flows with different constitutive relationships and thermal regimes using the real topography of the Mt Etna volcano.

Optimizing Satellite Monitoring of Volcanic Areas Through GPUs and Multi-Core CPUs Image Processing: An OpenCL Case Study

Satellite image processing algorithms often offer a very high degree of parallelism (e.g., pixel-by-pixel processing) that make them optimal candidates for execution on high-performance parallel computing hardware such as modern graphic processing units (GPUs) and multicore CPUs with vector processing capabilities. By using the OpenCL computing standard, a single implementation of a parallel algorithm can be deployed on a wide range of hardware platforms. However, achieving the best performance on each individual platform may still require a custom implementation. We show some possible approaches to the optimization of satellite image processing algorithms on a range of different platforms, discussing the implementation in OpenCL of the classic Brightness Temperature Difference ash-cloud detection algorithm.

Quantifying lava flow hazards in response to effusive eruption

The integration of satellite data and modeling represents a step toward the next generation of quantitative hazard assessment in response to effusive volcano eruption onset. Satellite-based thermal remote sensing of hotspots related to effusive activity can effectively provide a variety of products suited to timing, locating, and tracking the radiant character of lava flows. Hotspots show the location and occurrence of eruptive events (vents). Discharge rate estimates may indicate the current intensity (effusion rate) and potential magnitude (volume). High-spatial-resolution multispectral satellite data can complement field observations for monitoring the front position (length) and extension of flows (area). Physics-based models driven, or validated, by satellite-derived parameters are now capable of fast and accurate forecast of lava flow inundation scenarios (hazard). Here, we demonstrate the potential of the integrated application of satellite remote-sensing techniques and lava flow models by using a retrospective analysis of the 2004–2005 effusive eruption at Mount Etna in Italy. The lava flow hazard was assessed by using the HOTSAT volcano hotspot detection system, which works with satellite thermal infrared data, and the MAGFLOW lava flow emplacement model, which is able to relate the flow evolution to eruption conditions at the vent. We used HOTSAT to analyze Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) data to output hotspot location, lava thermal flux, and effusion rate estimation. This output was used to drive the MAGFLOW simulations of lava flow paths and to continuously update flow simulations. We also show how Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper+ (ETM+) and Earth Observing 1 ( EO-1 ) Advanced Land Imager (ALI) images complement the field observations to track the flow front position in time and add valuable data on lava flow advancement with which to validate the numerical simulations. Such integration at last makes timely forecasts of lava flow hazards during effusive crises possible at the great majority of volcanoes for which no monitoring exists.

Mapping Volcanic Deposits of the 2011–2015 Etna Eruptive Events Using Satellite Remote Sensing

Estimates of lava volumes provide important data on the lava flooding history and evolution of a volcano. For mapping these volcanic deposits, the advancement of satellite remote sensing techniques offer a great potential. Here we characterize the eruptive events occurred at Mt Etna between January 2011 and December 2015 leading to the emplacement of numerous lava flows and to the formation of a new pyroclastic cone (NSEC) on the eastern flank of the South East Crater. The HOTSAT system is used to analyze remote sensing data acquired by the SEVIRI sensor in order to detect the thermal anomalies from active lava flows and calculate the associated radiative power. The time-series analysis of SEVIRI data provides an estimation of event magnitude and intensity of the effusive material erupted during each event. The cumulative volume estimated from SEVIRI images from 2011 to 2015 adds up to ~106 millions of cubic meters of lava and is constrained using a topographic approach, i.e. by subtracting the last topography of Etna updated to 2005 from a 2015 digital elevation model, produced using tri-stereo Pleiades satellite images acquired on December 18, 2015. The total volume of products erupted from 2005 to 2015, calculated from topography difference by integration of the thickness distribution over the area covered, is about 287×106 m3, of which ~55×106 m3 is the volume of the NSEC cone.