Garrett. Barter

Implications of Modeling Range and Infrastructure Barriers to Adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles

Compared with traditional vehicles, light-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) currently have price premiums and noncost limitations, such as reduced range, sparse public recharging infrastructure, and long recharge times. These additional limitations can be captured in different ways in a consumer choice model. Three approaches are implemented to noncost barrier modeling, and results are compared. A penalty approach quantifies limitations as additional costs to the consumer, and two threshold approaches determine BEV suitability by the frequency that daily driving distance exceeds the vehicle range. GPS-based trip data are used to form ensemble distributions of low-, medium-, and high-intensity driving distances to support the analysis. All approaches show limited (5%) adoption of BEVs by 2050, and the BEV mileage fraction trails the stock fraction because of the use of substitute vehicles for high-mileage trips and adoption biased toward lower driving intensity segments. In fact, a majority of the electrified miles driven stem from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, not BEVs. Of the BEVs, the powertrains offering 150- to 250-mi ranges are responsible for more than 50% of sales. Results also hint that longer-range BEVs act as primary household vehicles, but lower-range BEVs serve as secondary household vehicles. A parametric exploration shows that mechanisms to mitigate the hardship of the noncost barriers can significantly increase adoption rates but that reducing battery price alone does not. However, these mechanisms can be different for different modeling approaches.

Heavy Duty Vehicle Futures Analysis.

This report describes work performed for an Early Career Research and Development project. This project developed a heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) sector model to assess the factors influencing alternative fuel and efficiency technology adoption. This model builds on a Sandia light duty vehicle sector model and provides a platform for assessing potential impacts of technological advancements developed at the Combustion Research Facility. Alternative fuel and technology adoption modeling is typically developed around a small set of scenarios. This HDV sector model segments the HDV sector and parameterizes input values, such as fuel prices, efficiencies, and vehicle costs. This parameterization enables sensitivity and trade space analyses to identify the inputs that are most associated with outputs of interest, such as diesel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus this analysis tool enables identification of the most significant HDV sector drivers that can be used to support energy security and climate change goals.