Garry O'Leary

Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one.

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

On-farm assessment of environmental and management constraints to wheat yield and efficiency in the use of rainfall in the Mallee

The responses of wheat grain yield to soil properties, weather, root diseases, and management practices were investigated in 75 grower-managed crops in the Mallee region of South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales during 3 growing seasons. Fourteen cultivars were represented in the sampled crops, with Frame being the most common (56%). The most widespread crop sequence was wheat after pasture (43% of wheat crops), followed by wheat after fallow or cereal (both about 20%); 12% of the wheat was sown after legumes. Wheat after cereal was more common in drier sites, and wheat after fallow in wetter sites. Wheat yield was proportional to Fischer’s photothermal coefficient around flowering, and ranged from nil to 4.7 t/ha. On average, wheat crops sown after cereals yielded 0.4 t/ha less than their counterparts sown after fallow, and 0.7 t/ha less than those after legumes. Sowing date ranged from 24 April to 21 July; yield declined with delayed sowing at an average rate of 17 kg/ha.day. Growing season rainfall (April–October) ranged from 111 to 266 mm, and accounted for 27% of the variation in grain yield. Soil water content at sowing (0–1 m) ranged from 32 to 330 mm; yield increased with initial soil water at an average rate of 6 kg/ha.mm. Grain yield per unit growing season rainfall was generally low, with 75% of crops producing <12 kg grain/ha.mm; the maximum ratio was 21 kg/ha.mm. Soil constraints, including sodicity, alkalinity, salinity, and boron toxicity, reduced yield in part by reducing availability of stored soil water. Owing to severity of chemical constraints increasing with soil depth, grain yield and yield per unit growing season rainfall were both inversely related to the proportion of water stored deeper in the soil (0.5–1 m). Yield was unrelated to nitrogen, both initial and applied. Larger amounts of nitrogen accumulated in soils with more severe constraints partially accounted for the lack of association between yield and nitrogen.

Response of wheat growth, grain yield and water use to elevated CO2 under a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment and modelling in a semi-arid environment

Abstract The response of wheat crops to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2) was measured and modelled with the Australian Grains Free‐Air CO 2 Enrichment experiment, located at Horsham, Australia. Treatments included CO 2 by water, N and temperature. The location represents a semi‐arid environment with a seasonal VPD of around 0.5 kPa. Over 3 years, the observed mean biomass at anthesis and grain yield ranged from 4200 to 10 200 kg ha−1 and 1600 to 3900 kg ha−1, respectively, over various sowing times and irrigation regimes. The mean observed response to daytime eCO 2 (from 365 to 550 μmol mol−1 CO 2) was relatively consistent for biomass at stem elongation and at anthesis and LAI at anthesis and grain yield with 21%, 23%, 21% and 26%, respectively. Seasonal water use was decreased from 320 to 301 mm (P = 0.10) by eCO 2, increasing water use efficiency for biomass and yield, 36% and 31%, respectively. The performance of six models (APSIM‐Wheat, APSIM‐Nwheat, CAT‐Wheat, CROPSYST, OLEARY‐CONNOR and SALUS) in simulating crop responses to eCO 2 was similar and within or close to the experimental error for accumulated biomass, yield and water use response, despite some variations in early growth and LAI. The primary mechanism of biomass accumulation via radiation use efficiency (RUE) or transpiration efficiency (TE) was not critical to define the overall response to eCO 2. However, under irrigation, the effect of late sowing on response to eCO 2 to biomass accumulation at DC65 was substantial in the observed data (~40%), but the simulated response was smaller, ranging from 17% to 28%. Simulated response from all six models under no water or nitrogen stress showed similar response to eCO 2 under irrigation, but the differences compared to the dryland treatment were small. Further experimental work on the interactive effects of eCO 2, water and temperature is required to resolve these model discrepancies.

Long-season canola ( Brassica napus L.) cultivars offer potential to substantially increase grain yield production in south-eastern Australia compared with current spring cultivars

Abstract. Average yield of canola in the high-rainfall zone (HRZ) of southern Australia are about half the predicted potential yield based on seasonal water supply. Current cultivars of canola that are available to growers were not bred specifically for the HRZ and tend to be short-season types aimed at escaping water stress during grain filling in the drier regions of the cropping belt. In the HRZ, these cultivars fail to utilise all available growing-season water due to early maturity. Field experimentation and crop simulation studies across the HRZ landscape of south-eastern Australia were used to determine the increased yield potential of longer-season canola cultivars compared with short-season cultivars. In this study the Catchment Analysis Tool spatial modelling framework was used to determine the expected canola yields of three cultivars across the entire HRZ of south-eastern Australia. Hyola50 (‘spring-short’) was used to represent the current recommended spring-type canola cultivar within the HRZ and was evaluated against an unreleased long-season spring-type cultivar CBI8802 (‘spring-long’) and a newly released winter-type cultivar Taurus (‘winter’). Spring-long outperformed spring-short across much of the study area. Yield advantages of winter over spring-short were mainly confined to the coastal fringe of Victoria and Tasmania and small pockets in New South Wales where at one location the average yield over 50 growing seasons exceeded spring-short by up to 60% or 1.4 t/ha. The superior performance of spring-long, (up to 17% or 0.9 t/ha at one location) was over a wider area than winter (26.4 compared with 8.8 million ha for winter) and although the magnitude of the yield increase over spring-short was not as great as winter at some locations, the overall result determined that spring-long had the greater production potential. The superior performance of spring-long beyond the HRZ challenges the trend of selecting earlier maturing cultivars by current breeders following the abnormal sequence of dry years in an attempt to minimise yield loss due to water stress during grain filling. This study has provided breeders, growers and advisors with information on where in the HRZ a longer-season canola cultivar can be grown to improve overall crop productivity. It has also provided evidence that new canola types may be required to maximise grain yields not only for the HRZ but potentially also in lower rainfall regions.

Drainage and change in soil water storage below the root-zone under long fallow and continuous cropping sequences in the Victorian Mallee

A field study investigated drainage and changes in soil water storage below the root-zone of annual crops on a sandy loam soil in the Victorian Mallee for 8 years. It was designed to compare the effects of the common long (18-month) fallow in a 3-year rotation (fallow-wheat-pea, FWP) with a rotation in which the fallow was replaced with mustard (Brassica juncea), viz. mustard-wheat-pea (MWP). Drainage was measured over 2 periods (1993-98 and 1998-2001) using 9 in situ drainage lysimeters in each rotation. The first period of ~5 years was drier than average (mean annual rainfall 298 cf. 339 mm) and drainage was low and variable. Drainage was greater under the fallow rotation (average 0.24 mm/year) than under the non-fallow rotation (average <0.01 mm/year). The result for the fallow rotation did, however, include one lysimeter that recorded substantial drainage (10.6 mm over the 5 years). During the second period of measurement (~3 years), rainfall was above average (mean annual rainfall 356 cf. 339 mm) and drainage was greater. On average, drainage from the fallow rotation was 6.7 mm/year compared with the non-fallow rotation at 4.0 mm/year. There was again substantial variation between lysimeters. One lysimeter under MWP recorded 31.4 mm/year, and as in the earlier drier period, there were many lysimeters that recorded no drainage. During the drier first period (1993-98), changes in soil water storage between 1.5 and 5.5 m depth confirmed the tendency of the fallow rotation to increase deep drainage. Despite increases and decreases in subsoil water storage during the study, the cumulative change in water storage was positive and greatest under FWP (range 2.8-14.8 mm/year, av. 9.6 mm/year) compared with MWP (range 5.3-9.8 mm/year, av. 7.4 mm/year) cropping sequences. Overall, the long fallow system has the potential to increase deep drainage by approximately 2 mm/year compared with a fully cropped system, over a wide annual rainfall range (134-438 mm). Further, this experiment reinforces the focus for the reduction of fallow practices for dryland salinity control in the Mallee region. AR Dr as age M. Gn et al

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia

Reliable seasonal climate forecasts are needed to aid tactical crop management decisions in south-eastern Australia (SEA). In this study we assessed the quality of two existing forecasting systems, i.e. the five phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and a three phase Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), to predict spring rainfall (i.e. rainfall from 1 September to 31 November), and simulated wheat yield. The quality of the forecasts was evaluated by analysing four attributes of their performance: their reliability, the relative degree of shift and dispersion of the distributions, and measure of forecast consistency or skill. Available data included 117 years of spring rainfall and 104 years of grain yield simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model, from four locations in SEA. Average values of spring rainfall were 102-174 mm with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 47%. Average simulated wheat yields were highest (5609 kg/ha) in Albury (New South Wales) and lowest (1668 kg/ha) in Birchip (Victoria). The average CV for simulated grain yields was 36%. Griffith (NSW) had the highest yield variability (CV = 50%). Some of this year-to-year variation was related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Spring rainfall and simulated wheat yields showed a clear association with the SOI and SST phases at the end of July. Important variations in shift and dispersion in spring rainfall and simulated wheat yields were observed across the studied locations. The forecasts showed good reliability, indicating that both forecasting systems could be used with confidence to forecast spring rainfall or wheat yield as early as the end of July. The consistency of the forecast of spring rainfall and simulated wheat yield was 60-83%. We concluded that adequate forecasts of spring rainfall and grain yield could be produced at the end of July, using both the SOI and SST phase systems. These results are discussed in relation to the potential benefit of making tactical top-dress applications of nitrogen fertilisers during early August.

Advances in precision agriculture in south-eastern Australia. III. Interactions between soil properties and water use help explain spatial variability of crop production in the Victorian Mallee

A major barrier to the adoption of precision agriculture in dryland cropping systems is our current inability to reliably predict spatial patterns of grain yield for future crops for a specific paddock. An experiment was undertaken to develop a better understanding of how edaphic and climatic factors interact to influence the spatial variation in the growth, water use, and grain yield of different crops in a single paddock so as to improve predictions of the likely spatial pattern of grain yields in future crops. Changes in a range of crop and soil properties were monitored over 3 consecutive seasons (barley in 2005 and 2007 and lentils in 2006) in the southern section of a 167-ha paddock in the Mallee region of Victoria, which had been classified into 3 different yield (low, moderate, and high) and seasonal variability (stable and variable) zones using normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and historic yield maps. The different management zones reflected marked differences in a range of soil properties including both texture in the topsoil and potential chemical-physical constraints in the subsoil (SSCs) to root growth and water use. Dry matter production, grain yield, and quality differed significantly between the yield zones but the relative difference between zones was reduced when supplementary irrigation was applied to barley in 2005, suggesting that some other factor, e.g. nitrogen (N), may have become limiting in that year. There was a strong relationship between crop growth and the use of soil water and nitrate across the management zones, with most water use by the crop occurring in the pre-anthesis/flowering period, but the nature of this relationship appeared to vary with year and/or crop type. In 2006, lentil yield was strongly related to crop establishment, which varied with soil texture and differences in plant-available water. In 2007 the presence of soil water following a good break to the season permitted root growth into the subsoil where there was evidence that SSCs may have adversely affected crop growth. Because of potential residual effects of one crop on another, e.g. through differential N supply and use, we conclude that the utility of the NDVI methodology for developing zone management maps could be improved by using historical records and data for a range of crop types rather than pooling data from a range of seasons.

Evaluating options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from an Australian temperate wheat cropping system

Abstract Increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases as a result of human activities are thought to be resulting in discernible changes in global climate. Australia, as a signatory to the Climate Change Convention, has agreed to stabilize emissions of these gases at 1990 levels. There is a need to identify options that may reduce emissions from all industry sectors including those emissions arising from agricultural activities such as wheat cropping. The wheat cropping systems of the Wimmera region of Victoria studied here are likely to be significant net emitters of greenhouse gases with average annual emissions equivalent to 1350 to 2150 kg of carbon dioxide per hectare. Choosing stubble retention wheat cropping systems could reduce the average net emissions per hectare by up to 37% depending on the systems used. More importantly though, the stubble retention cropping systems which have lower emissions also tend to have greater yields, and thus may produce up to four times the grain yield per unit emissions than other systems such as conventionally tilled, continuous wheat. This indicates that there is significant potential to adapt wheat cropping systems to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. This capability may be enhanced by tactical management decisions that change fertilizer inputs depending on soil moisture levels at sowing or on seasonal forecasts based on factors such as the Southern Oscillation Index. This approach is also likely to have financial and risk management benefits. Loss of soil carbon was the most substantial component of the emissions budget for all cropping systems (63 to 84% of total emissions), followed by nitrous oxide emissions (from 12 to 42%) with methane forming a relatively small component (from 0.003 to 17%). Emissions from fossil fuel combustion (from 0.8 to 8%) and from burning crop stubble (from 0 to 21%) formed relatively small components of the emissions budget. Policy issues are discussed including the removal of barriers to adoption of the more sustainable, low-emission systems identified in this study.

Advances in precision agriculture in south-eastern Australia. V. Effect of seasonal conditions on wheat and barley yield response to applied nitrogen across management zones

Spatial variability in grain yield across a paddock often indicates spatial variation in soil properties, especially in regions like the Victorian Mallee. We combined 2 years of field data and 119 years of simulation experiments (APSIM-Wheat and APSIM-Barley crop models) to simulate crop yield at various levels of N application in 4 different management zones to explore the robustness of the zones previously determined for an experimental site at Birchip. The crop models explained 96% and 67% of the observed variability in wheat and barley grain yields, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 310 kg/ha and 230 kg/ha, respectively. The model produced consistent responses to the observed data from the field experiment in 2004 and 2005 where a high and stable yielding zone produced the highest dry matter as well as grain yield, while a low and variable zone recorded the lowest grain yield. However, from the long-term (119 years) simulation, the highest median wheat yield value was obtained on the low variable zone (2911 kg/ha) with high N fertiliser application, while the lowest was obtained on the high variable zone (851 kg/ha). Similarly, the highest barley yields (1880–3350 kg/ha) occurred on the low variable zone using the long-term simulation. In 10–20% of years the highest yield occurred in the high-yielding zones, with the variable and stable zones changing rank with interactive behaviour only under early-sown conditions. Our analyses highlight the problem of using a limited range of seasons of different weather conditions in agronomy to make strategic conclusions as the long-term simulation did not confirm the original yield zone determination. The challenge ahead is to predict in advance the seasons where application of N fertiliser will be beneficial.