Gary Barnes

Estimating Bicycling Demand

Simple and reliable tools for estimating and predicting the amount of bicycling in an area would be useful for a variety of investment and policy decisions. Previous efforts to develop such tools have typically tried to develop demand estimates from basic descriptors of the population, land use, and bicycling facilities of an area. This paper takes an alternative approach by using the idea of deriving estimates of the likely range of total bicycling demand in an area on the basis of census commute-to-work data. The paper makes three contributions. The first is a general discussion of the total amount of bicycling in the United States and how it varies across places, on the basis of a number of surveys and some original data analysis. The second is the development of an argument that predictive models based on land use and transportation factors are unlikely to ever be accurate or useful because of a number of intractable problems. Third, a simple model is developed for estimation of a range of current levels of bicycling in a given geographic area with reasonable and known accuracy and by use of easily available data. While this model stops short of predicting bicycling levels or demand on specific facilities, it is an important first step in reaching these objectives. There is such a high degree of local variation in bicycling rates in the United States that attempts to predict bicycling levels directly without accounting for current levels are unlikely to be consistently successful.

The importance of trip destination in determining transit share

For a variety of reasons, policymakers in recent years have taken a greater interest in increasing the use of transit. However, it is difficult to substantially impact transit use at a large scale, because it is strongly dependent on development density and other slow changing features of urban land use. This article argues that policymakers hoping to increase transit use should focus on increasing the size of downtowns and developing suburban job centers at downtown sizes and densities. There are both empirical and practical arguments. Empirically, large, dense destinations have a very substantial impact on mode choice, regardless of the characteristics of the trip origin. From a practical standpoint, there are two arguments. First, it may be easier to increase densities in commercial areas, both because political opposition is less acute and because developable land is often more available. Second, commercial areas can be developed at much higher densities, with a corresponding impact on transit ridership.

Analysing the benefits and costs of bicycle facilities via online guidelines

Planning and policy efforts at all levels of transportation planning aim to increase levels of walking and bicycling. In many cases, initiatives are motivated by a desire to reduce automobile use and its attendant environmental consequences (e.g. pollution, natural resource consumption). Alternatively, efforts are prompted by concerns about livability, public health or physical inactivity. In response, urban planners, transportation specialists, elected officials and health advocates are all looking to non-motorized travel to address myriad concerns, whether they relate to congestion, the environment, health or quality of life. An important element in any effort to spur more walking or cycling requires adequate facilities to encourage their use. For walking, this includes pavements, public spaces and/or road crossings. For bicycling, this includes relatively wide kerb lanes, on-street or off-street bicycle paths, and even secure parking or showers at the workplace. Opponents of bicycle projects bombard decision-makers with cost information because data on costs are relatively easy to obtain. Benefits, however, are considerably more difficult to estimate, and though the bicycle planning community makes many advocacy-based claims, methodologies for valuing cycling facilities’ benefits are in short supply. In response, planners and other transportation specialists often find themselves justifying such spending with the claim that these facilities benefit the common good and that they induce increased use. Especially in austere economic times, they are often grasping for ways to ‘economize’ such facilities. Procedures to value the benefits of road or transit-related investments for planning purposes are relatively well established, but this is not the case for

Understanding and managing conflict in transportation project public involvement

The purpose of this project is to understand why public involvement in transportation project planning sometimes fails to reach a resolution that is acceptable to both the agency and the public and to determine how the process could be modified to reduce the likelihood of this outcome. A case study of a very complex and ultimately unsuccessful public involvement effort is described. This is used as the primary data source for development of a prototype of a general model of conflict management. It is concluded that there are a small number of independent dimensions around which conflict can arise and that some projects by their nature have a higher level of potential for conflict around one or more of these dimensions. The conclusion is that each of these dimensions needs to be analyzed and the likely level of conflict identified before the public involvement process begins and that the process should be explicitly structured to focus on addressing and resolving the high-conflict areas first. How public involvement efforts can be modified to better manage specific types of conflict and achieve mutually acceptable results is also described.

Financial Benefits of Early Acquisition of Transportation Right-of-Way

Right-of-way acquisition is a substantial element of the cost of many highway construction and expansion projects. Given land price appreciation on the one hand and the opportunity cost of owning land on the other, a great deal of money can be at stake in the question of whether right-of-way should be purchased well in advance of when construction is expected to take place. This paper develops a theoretical framework for thinking about this issue and describes some results from an analysis at a fairly aggregate geographic level. The general result is that early acquisition is not a good investment in the most general sense, given the average rate of land price increase and the cost of money as well as other costs associated with early acquisition. The one clear exception is land that is in imminent danger of development. A major limitation of this work is that it viewed land prices only in the aggregate and did not specifically examine the immediate vicinity of the right-of-way. The research did find some support for the notion that certain types of land in specific locations can appreciate in price much faster than the average. It is not clear, however, that it is possible to predict these situations with sufficient accuracy to take advantage of the potential cost savings.

Developing a simple system for conflict management of public involvement

Although commercially taught systems are effective for managing conflict that arises during public involvement in transportation projects, these systems can be costly and complex. They appear more appropriate for those who can use them frequently. The work described here, by contrast, was focused on finding simple methods for managing less challenging projects and was aimed toward those who may use public involvement only occasionally. The conflict management framework is derived from a distillation of expert opinion, based on discussions of specific projects by Minnesota transportation experts on public involvement. They were interviewed with a standard set of questions about the project, the public involvement process, the reasons for conflict, how the conflict was managed, what worked, and what did not. The interviews encompassed a variety of project types and settings. The framework has two components. The first is a simple organizational scheme for categorizing conflict to assist in determining the appropriate management strategy. The second is the management strategies themselves. An overview of the key elements of these components is given.