Gary Bull

Mediating Forest Transitions: 'Grand Design' or 'Muddling Through'

Present biodiversity conservation programmes in the remaining extensive forest blocks of the humid tropics are failing to achieve outcomes that will be viable in the medium to long term. Too much emphasis is given to what we term ‘grand design’—ambitious and idealistic plans for conservation. Such plans implicitly oppose or restrict development and often attempt to block it by speculatively establishing paper parks. Insufficient recognition is given to the inevitable long term pressures for conversion to other land uses and to the weakness of local constituencies for conservation. Conservation institutions must build their capacity to engage with the process of change. They must constantly adapt to deal with a continuously unfolding set of challenges, opportunities and changing societal needs. This can be achieved by long term on-the-ground engagement and ‘muddling through’. The range of conservation options must be enlarged to give more attention to biodiversity in managed landscapes and to mosaics composed of areas with differing intensities of use. The challenge is to build the human capacity and institutions to achieve this.

The institutional design of forest certification standards initiatives and its influence on the role of science: the case of forest genetic resources

In the 1990s a wide array of non-governmental certification initiatives emerged as a way to promote the sustainable management of resources in sectors such as fisheries and forestry. In this paper, we examine two related questions about these initiatives: how does the institutional design of certification initiatives affect the way science is used in the development of certification standards and in whose interest is science employed? Using the empirical case of forest certification and the specific standards various initiatives have created to address the management of forest genetic resources, we show how structural aspects of decision-making processes affects the standards adopted and the rationalization for their appropriateness. Two basic models of decision-making-stakeholder participation and technical expertise-are discussed in relation to three certification initiatives active in North America-the Canadian Standards Association, the Sustainable Forestry Initiative and the Forest Stewardship Council. By examining the standards these initiatives set for the management of forest genetic resources, we illustrate how two dimensions of science-uncertainty and the logic of cause and effect-are used to rationalize cautious and rigid versus flexible and discretionary standards for the management of forest genetic resources. Our findings indicate that the design or structure of certification decision-making processes, and their embedded balance of authority, mediate the form of standards initiatives will justify on the basis of science.

Prediction Models for Estimating the Area, Volume, and Age of Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) Plantations in Malaysia using Landsat TM Data

SUMMARY Rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis (Wild. ex Adr. de Juss.) Muell Arg.) plantations in Malaysia are important sources of natural rubber and wood products. Effective management and appropriate policy for these resources requires reliable forecasts of resource availability. However, to achieve these goals, effective inventories are required. This promoted research into supplementing ground-based survey methods with satellite remote sensing information. A study was conducted to investigate the relationship between Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data and rubber stand parameters and to develop and evaluate models for estimating area, volume, and age of rubber plantations. Statistically significant models for estimating volume and age of rubber stands were obtained. For volume models, the R2 values were all higher than 0.70 and standard error of the estimate (SEE) values were lower than 54 m3/ha. R2 and SEE values achieved from age models evaluated ranged from 0.34–0.64 and 6.4–8.2 years. A logistic regression model produced classifications with an accuracy of 87% for predicting the presence of rubber plantations. Thus, Landsat TM provides an acceptable data source for estimating wood volume and stand age, and for predicting the presence of rubber plantations.

Carbon sink by the forest sector--options and needs for implementation

The important role of forests in the carbon cycle suggests that the management of forests might be used to offset emissions. Newly developing markets will support these socially desirable ends only if a new specified policy framework is formulated and the landowners develop individually tailored projects. From the point of view of the developing countries, carbon-sink policy needs to be integrated in an overall policy against deforestation and forest degradation. Managing the risk of climatic change is an underestimated challenge for all branches of forest science and might bring dramatic changes to all stakeholders in the forest sector. Most worrisome is the current state of the quality of global forest information. But further uneasy scientific questions about forest carbon sinks remain open.

An Assessment of China's Forest Resources

SUMMARY Chinas forest resources have been and continue to be threatened. The analysis of the various reported statistics, while often conflicting, does indicate significant challenges ahead for the forest to supply the material for industrial, non-industrial, fuelwood and conservation objectives. Given forecasted constraints on domestic fibre supply for at least two decades there could be a significant increase demand for logs and forest products from Chinas trading partners. Overall this paper indicates the challenge in reaching more specific conclusions since there are serious data discrepancies in all major statistical areas. These discrepancies must be addressed before a clear set of land and sustainable development policies can be created.

Estimating Mill Residue Surplus in Canada: A Spatial Forest Fiber Cascade Modeling Approach

Abstract The potential development of a Canadian forest-based bioeconomy requires an assessment of both fiber availability and associated marginal supply costs. To a large extent, the bioeconomy is expected to rely on wood fiber made available through primary products, sawnwood, and pulp production processing streams. Therefore, it is important to understand the regional wood fiber flows and mill residue availability through various processing streams. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit Forest Fiber Cascade Model (FCM) to estimate regional fiber flows and availability of untapped residue surplus. The FCM was calibrated to 2013 production levels, and we evaluated the wood fiber cascade through existing forest industry in Canada. The results show that, under current conditions, there is limited availability of surplus mill residues in Canada, especially in the Eastern provinces. It is therefore critical to consider the impacts on regional fiber flows and feedstock availability to the secondary...

Estimating water user demand for certification of forest watershed services

Eco-certification is one solution to the common problem of verification of delivery of services in payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes. Certification incurs costs, which may limit uptake, so it should be able to benefit users of certified services for it succeeds. In part to inform a project targeting expansion of the Forest Stewardship Councils forest management certification to include ecosystem services, we tested market demand for a potential certification scheme for watershed services. Using choice experiments among end-users of water subject to an existing PES scheme in Lombok, Indonesia, we assessed potential business values of certification. Our results suggested that preferred business values included credible information disclosure on improved water quality, reduced flood risk, environmental safeguards, and/or social safeguards of the upstream forests. These preferences indicate potential demand for a certification of forest watershed services designed to provide such information to end users.

Temporal Reliability of Willingness to Pay for Payments for Environmental Services: Lessons from Lombok, Indonesia

Willingness to pay (WTP) for payments for environmental services (PES) can be temporarily reliable if contingent valuation (CV) studies are embedded in an accurate survey population, yield low measurement errors, and are based on a correct assumption of no change in sociodemographic factors affecting buyer preferences. These pre-conditions are assumed in PES schemes applying temporal reliability of WTP. This study tests these conditions in CV-PES studies from 2001, 2003, and 2011 in Lombok, Indonesia, by comparing them with a new CV-PES study in 2015. Our results show that the CV-PES studies would not meet the pre-conditions due to inclusion of non-PES buyers, potential measurement errors implied by a lack of validating information and high WTP estimate, and/or failure to test the condition of no change of socio-economic factors. Results contribute to identifying pragmatic challenges and lessons for applying temporal reliability of WTP to PES implementation.

Bioenergy power generation in Inner Mongolia, China: supply logistics and feedstock cost

SUMMARY In China, high feedstock cost and supply logistics constrain the development of the wood bioenergy sector. This study examines the cost structure and supply logistics for two locations in Inner Mongolia: Naimanqi which has a power plant supplied by a collectively owned forest and Arxan, where a proposed power plant would be supplied by a state-owned forest. The study areas differed in supply logistics and management structure but were alike in that the largest component of feedstock cost was labour. The feedstock cost varied between Naimanqi and Arxan due to the differences in collection process, equipment, hauling distance, transportation cost and administration cost. The case study provides insight into the economics of bioenergy feedstock from forests in northern China.