Gary D. Wekkin

Role constraints and first ladies

Abstract The First Ladyship is an institution that consists not only of the perceptions of its various occupants, and the accumulated precedents they have established, but also of the perceptions of the various audiences to which the First Ladies have played, and the elite and popular expectations that have accumulated over time in response to those precedents. Certain roles and their attendant behaviors are, thus, more likely than other roles and behaviors to attract elite and/or popular supports, whereas others are more likely to founder against one or more of the audience constraints that are part of the political ecology in which any First Lady operates.

His to Lose: The Failure of George Herbert Walker Bush, 1992

Using a two-wave panel, this paper locates the proximate causes of the defeat of George Bush in 1992 not among the variables traditionally applied by election forecasters-economic performance measures, presidential popularity, or retrospective partisanship-but in the tactics and choices of the electoral season itself. The Bush campaign failed to secure a firm base of support, failed to generate momentum even among those predisposed to support the incumbent, and failed to recognize, then capture, the issue space most important to the electorate. As a result, Bush failed to secure a second term.