Gary L. Brase

Individuation, counting, and statistical inference: The role of frequency and whole-object representations in judgment under uncertainty

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The demographics of mate value and self-esteem

Abstract A revised version of the sociometer hypothesis account of self-esteem holds that self-esteem is a function of multiple indexes of how a person stands in relation to those around him or her. One of the areas in which people are proposed to be sensitive to their relative standing is their mate value—how attractive they are as a potential mate. Elements of ones mate value are tied to age and sex of a person, and marital status may also be a demographic variable that reflects mate value. A study with 161 participants, representing a range of ages and marital standings, found that age, sex, and marital status were related to self-estimates of mate value and efforts to enhance mate value. In turn, mate value and mate value enhancement effort—in addition to marital satisfaction–were significant predictor variables for self-esteem.

Frequency interpretation of ambiguous statistical information facilitates Bayesian reasoning

The idea that naturally sampled frequencies facilitate performance in statistical reasoning tasks because they are a cognitively privileged representational format has been challenged by findings that similarly structured numbers presented as chances similarly facilitate performance, on the basis of the claim that these are technically single-event probabilities. A crucial opinion, however, is that of the research participants, who possibly interpret chances as de facto frequencies. A series of experiments here indicate that not only is performance improved by clearly presented natural frequencies, rather than chances phrasing, but also that participants who interpreted chances as frequencies, rather than as probabilities, were consistently better at statistical reasoning. This result was found across different variations of information presentation and across different populations.

Participant recruitment methods and statistical reasoning performance

Optimal Bayesian reasoning performance has reportedly been elusive, and a variety of explanations have been suggested for this situation. In a series of experiments, it is demonstrated that these difficulties with replication can be accounted for by differences in participant-sampling methodologies. Specifically, the best performances are obtained with students from top-tier, national universities who were paid for their participation. Performance drops significantly as these conditions are altered regarding inducements (e.g., using unpaid participants) or participant source (e.g., using participants from a second-tier, regional university). Honours-programme undergraduates do better than regular undergraduates within the same university, paid participation creates superior performance, and top-tier university students do better than students from lower ranked universities. Pictorial representations (supplementing problem text) usually have a slight facilitative effect across these participant manipulations. These results indicate that studies should take account of these methodological details and focus more on relative levels of performance rather than absolute performance.

Sex differences in responses to relationship threats in England and Romania

Prior research on sex differences in relationship jealousy and on reactions to third-party rivals has been conducted primarily within the U.S., Central Europe, and Asia. As these effects vary in magnitude across cultures, it is important to investigate both how these patterns differ across a wider range of cultures and the key mediating cultural variables. One hundred and fourteen English and 202 Romanian participants provided their reactions to hypothetical relationship infidelity situations and to various traits that a mate rival could possess. In both samples, males were more upset than females by sexualinfidelity, as compared with emotional infidelity, but this effect was much smaller for the Romanian sample. In line with evolutionary predictions, men were more upset by a rival who had better financial prospects, greater status and prestige, and was physically stronger, whereas women were more upset by a rival with a more attractive body and face. Additional, unpredicted, sex differences in the evaluation of rival traits were also found. Finally, different correlations were found (both across cultures and across sexes) between reported reactions to infidelities and to specific mate rival traits.

When and for whom do frequencies facilitate performance? On the role of numerical literacy

The thesis that the mind is better prepared to process frequencies—as compared to other numerical formats—continues to be debated. A recent aspect of this issue is the role of numeracy (numerical literacy; ones ability to understand and work with numerical information) and specifically the argument that individual differences in numeracy interact with numerical formats. This interaction, either that frequencies improve performance only for those of low numeracy or that frequencies work only for those of high numeracy, would suggest that better performance using frequencies could be due to (nonevolutionary) numeracy effects. The three present studies revisited prior work with cumulative probability, Bayesian reasoning, and scenario risk assessments to study the effects of numeracy on frequency facilitation. Results from these experiments consistently failed to replicate previous findings of interactions; however, a more consistent finding emerged of a straightforward frequency effect. The lack of interactions and observations of frequency main effects lend support to the evolutionary explanation of the frequency effect. In addition, some possible statistical processes are proposed to explain the observation of interactions in past studies.

Male sexual strategies modify ratings of female models with specific waist-to-hip ratios.

Female waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) has generally been an important general predictor of ratings of physical attractiveness and related characteristics. Individual differences in ratings do exist, however, and may be related to differences in the reproductive tactics of the male raters such as pursuit of short-term or long-term relationships and adjustments based on perceptions of one’s own quality as a mate. Forty males, categorized according to sociosexual orientation and physical qualities (WHR, Body Mass Index, and self-rated desirability), rated female models on both attractiveness and likelihood they would approach them. Sociosexually restricted males were less likely to approach females rated as most attractive (with 0.68–0.72 WHR), as compared with unrestricted males. Males with lower scores in terms of physical qualities gave ratings indicating more favorable evaluations of female models with lower WHR. The results indicate that attractiveness and willingness to approach are overlapping but distinguishable constructs, both of which are influenced by variations in characteristics of the raters.

Good fences make for good neighbors but bad science: a review of what improves Bayesian reasoning and why

Bayesian reasoning, defined here as the updating of a posterior probability following new information, has historically been problematic for humans. Classic psychology experiments have tested human Bayesian reasoning through the use of word problems and have evaluated each participant’s performance against the normatively correct answer provided by Bayes’ theorem. The standard finding is of generally poor performance. Over the past two decades, though, progress has been made on how to improve Bayesian reasoning. Most notably, research has demonstrated that the use of frequencies in a natural sampling framework—as opposed to single-event probabilities—can improve participants’ Bayesian estimates. Furthermore, pictorial aids and certain individual difference factors also can play significant roles in Bayesian reasoning success. The mechanics of how to build tasks which show these improvements is not under much debate. The explanations for why naturally sampled frequencies and pictures help Bayesian reasoning remain hotly contested, however, with many researchers falling into ingrained “camps” organized around two dominant theoretical perspectives. The present paper evaluates the merits of these theoretical perspectives, including the weight of empirical evidence, theoretical coherence, and predictive power. By these criteria, the ecological rationality approach is clearly better than the heuristics and biases view. Progress in the study of Bayesian reasoning will depend on continued research that honestly, vigorously, and consistently engages across these different theoretical accounts rather than staying “siloed” within one particular perspective. The process of science requires an understanding of competing points of view, with the ultimate goal being integration.

The power of representation and interpretation: Doubling statistical reasoning performance with icons and frequentist interpretations of ambiguous numbers

In an ongoing debate about statistical reasoning competency, one view claims that pictorial representations help tap into the frequency coding mechanisms, whereas another view argues that pictorial representations simply help one to appreciate general subset relationships. The present experiments used Bayesian reasoning problems, expressed in an ambiguous numerical format (chances) and with different pictorial representations, to better understand influences on performance across these representation types. Although a roulette wheel diagram had some positive effect on performance, both abstract icons and pictographs improved performance markedly more. Furthermore, a frequency interpretation of the ambiguous numerical information was also associated with superior performance. These findings support the position that the human mind is more easily able to use frequency-based information, as opposed to grasping subset relations, as an explanation for improved statistical reasoning. These results also provide practical implications for how to present quantitative information to substantially improve public understanding.

Emotional Regulation of Fertility Decision Making: What Is the Nature and Structure of "Baby Fever"?

Baby fever-a visceral physical and emotional desire to have a baby-is well known in popular culture, but has not been empirically studied in psychology. Different theoretical perspectives suggest that desire for a baby is either superfluous to biological sex drives and maternal instincts, a sociocultural phenomenon unrelated to biological or evolutionary forces, or an evolved adpatation for regulating birth timing, proceptive behavior, and life history trajectories. A series of studies (involving 337 undergraduate participants and 853 participants from a general population Internet sample) found that: (a) a simple scale measure could elicit ratings of desire frequency; (b) these ratings exhibited significant sex differences; (c) this sex difference was distinct from a general desire for sexual activity; and (d) these findings generalize to a more diverse online population. Factor analyses of ratings for desire elicitors/inhibitors identified three primary factors underlying baby fever. Baby fever appears to be a real phenomenon, with an underlying multifactorial structure.