Gary L. Hunt

Public Conservation Land and Employment Growth in the Northern Forest Region

We quantify the effect that public conservation lands have on employment growth in the Northern Forest region of the United States. A model of simultaneous employment and net migration growth is estimated with data on non-metropolitan counties from 1990 to 1997. Exogenous variables include the 1990 share of the land base in public conservation uses. We find that net migration rates were higher in counties with more conservation lands, but the effects are relatively small. No significant effect on employment growth is detected. As well, variables measuring changes in public timber harvests have no effect on employment growth. (JEL Q26)

The Early History Of Migration Research

This article provides a history of the early contributions to the scientific study of migration. It begins with Ravenstein (1880s) and also features the work of D. S. Thomas (1930s). Moreover, the development of the gravity model as applied to migration research (1930s and 1940s) is discussed. The article discusses the historical reasons for interest in various migration phenomena and briefly treats the development of migration data sources.

North American Migration: Returns to Skill, Border Effects, and Mobility Costs

Utilizing a utility-maximizing, Roy-type, discrete choice model of worker location in Canadian provinces and U.S. states that incorporates returns to skill, amenities, fixed costs, distance, language, and border effects, we find that individuals with higher skills migrate to areas with higher returns and that the 49th parallel attenuates migration. Simulations indicate that equalizing returns in the two countries has a modest effect on cross-country migration; however, reductions in border effects tend to have large nonlinear effects on it. Our results confirm the qualitative results of previous research emphasizing the importance of returns to skill and border effects in migration decisions.

Alternative Nested Logit Model Structures and the Special Case of Partial Degeneracy

Partially degenerate nested logit (NL) models have broad applicability in regional science. However, the literature on them is relatively sparse and confusion exists on some aspects of identification and related matters. This paper addresses a number of conceptual and econometric aspects of partially degenerate NL models. These include identification, scaling, invariance, and consistency with the utility-maximizing postulate that underlies discrete choiceanalysis. This is accomplished within the larger, encompassing framework of nondegenerate NL models of which the partially degenerate model is a special case. Copyright 2000 Blackwell Publishers inc.

The factor-market consequences of unskilled immigration to the United States

Abstract This paper applies the production-theory approach to migration to assess the wage and employment effects of unskilled immigration to the United States. Native labour and foreign-born labour are disaggregated into four skill categories. Together with capital, this adds up to nine inputs. The data are cross section for 121 metropolitan areas. Both an aggregate cost function and a production function are estimated. The functional form that we use is the Symmetric Normalized Quadratic Semiflexible function. Special attention is devoted to required curvature conditions which have frequently been violated in previous work. Elasticity estimates are reported for alternative settings, including for the short run when we view domestic factor prices as given and the long run when we treat them as flexible. The results indicate that an increase of unskilled immigration has a small - but statistically significant - negative effect on low- and medium-skill native workers.

A Methodology for Estimating Returns to Skills for Canadian Provinces and U.S. States

Differences in both regional skill prices and skill mix can explain interregional variations in wage distributions. We control for interregional differences in skill mix that permit us to compute key parameters of regional wage distributions including regional returns to skills. In addition to setting forth the methods in detail, we also present estimates for 48 U.S. states and 10 Canadian provinces. For both males and females, we find that regional mean wages (with controls for skills mix) in the U.S. and Canada are similar, but that the returns to skills are systematically higher in the U.S.

An Econometrics Laboratory

The authors describe briefly nine experiments designed to illustrate different applied statistical problems or econometric techniques suitable for the first course in econometrics. Additional information and computer programs are available from the authors.

Fiscal Policy, Returns to Skills, and Canada-US Migration: Evidence from the Late 1990s

Dans cet article, nous présentons un modèle logit hiérarchique des migrations entre 59 régions du Canada et des États-Unis que nous avons conçu grâce à plus de 70 000 microdonnées portant sur les travailleurs de tous les déciles de la répartition des compétences que comportaient les recensements canadiens et américains de 2000/2001, puis nous faisons des estimations et des simulations. En combinant les données individuelles et et les données régionales, nous pouvons analyser les effets des différences de politiques fiscales des deux pays sur les migrations des travailleurs. Comme nous savons quels sont les travailleurs hautement qualifiés, nous pouvons simuler les effets que des changements en matière d’impôt (en présupposant des budgets équilibrés) auraient autant sur la tendance des individus à migrer que sur l’importance des courants migratoires. Ces simulations suggèrent qu’une augmentation du rendement des compétences après impôt au Canada ainsi que la réduction, au niveau moyen américain, du taux moyen d’imposition canadien (avec compensation des réductions des dépenses pour maintenir la neutralité budgétaire) réduiraient effectivement les migrations vers les États-Unis, particulièrement parmi les travailleurs hautement qualifiés. Toutefois, les réductions des taux d’imposition et des dépenses publiques nécessaires pour produire ce résultat étant relativement élevées, cela soulèverait des questions touchant des politiques publiques importantes dans d’autres domaines.

The local US labour market impacts of low-skilled migration from Mexico*

During the last few decades the world has experienced an unprecedented level of cross-border migration. While this has generated significant socio-economic gains for host countries, as well as sometimes for the countries of origin, the costs and benefits involved are unevenly distributed. Consequently, growing global population mobility is a hotly debated topic, both in the political arena and by the general public. Amidst a plethora of facts, opinions and emotions, the assessment of migration impacts must be grounded in a solid scientific evidence base. This analytical book outlines and applies a range of the scientific methods that are currently available in migration impact assessment (MIA). The book provides various North American and European case studies that quantify socio-economic consequences of migration for host societies and for immigrants themselves.

Food Prices and the Timing of Welfare Payments: A Canadian Study

This is a study of the relationship between the timing of social welfare payments and the price of food for one neighbourhood in Montreal. Using prices of 31 grocery products over 26 weeks and across seven stores, we obtain two main results. First, we show that the availability of social welfare resources affects grocery prices throughout the month. Second, average grocery prices are lowest during cheque-receipt week and rise by 6.8 percent to 11.72 percent over the remainder of the monthly social welfare cycle. We argue that these results are consistent with social welfare recipients having progressively less resources for transportation over a month and therefore are more reliant on local grocery stores.