Gary Longton

Predictors of Progression to Cancer in Barrett's Esophagus: Baseline Histology and Flow Cytometry Identify Low- and High-Risk Patient Subsets

OBJECTIVE:Barretts esophagus develops in 5–20% of patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease and predisposes to esophageal adenocarcinoma. The value of endoscopic biopsy surveillance is questioned because most patients do not develop cancer. Furthermore, observer variation in histological diagnosis makes validation of surveillance guidelines difficult because varying histological interpretations may lead to different estimated rates of progression. Thus, objective biomarkers need to be validated for use with histology to stratify patients according to their risk for progression to cancer.METHODS:We prospectively evaluated patients using a systematic endoscopic biopsy protocol with baseline histological and flow cytometric abnormalities as predictors and cancer as the outcome.RESULTS:Among patients with negative, indefinite, or low-grade dysplasia, those with neither aneuploidy nor increased 4N fractions had a 0% 5-yr cumulative cancer incidence compared with 28% for those with either aneuploidy or increased 4N. Patients with baseline increased 4N, aneuploidy, and high-grade dysplasia had 5-yr cancer incidences of 56%, 43%, and 59%, respectively. Aneuploidy, increased 4N, or HGD were detected at baseline in all 35 patients who developed cancer within 5 yr.CONCLUSIONS:A systematic baseline endoscopic biopsy protocol using histology and flow cytometry identifies subsets of patients with Barretts esophagus at low and high risk for progression to cancer. Patients whose baseline biopsies are negative, indefinite, or low-grade displasia without increased 4N or aneuploidy may have surveillance deferred for up to 5 yr. Patients with cytometric abnormalities merit more frequent surveillance, and management of high-grade displasia can be individualized.

Predictors of progression in Barrett's esophagus II: Baseline 17p (p53) loss of heterozygosity identifies a patient subset at increased risk for neoplastic progression

OBJECTIVES:Most patients with Barretts esophagus do not progress to cancer, but those who do seem to have markedly increased survival when cancers are detected at an early stage. Most surveillance programs are based on histological assessment of dysplasia, but dysplasia is subject to observer variation and transient diagnoses of dysplasia increase the cost of medical care. We have previously validated flow cytometric increased 4N fractions and aneuploidy as predictors of progression to cancer in Barretts esophagus. However, multiple somatic genetic lesions develop during neoplastic progression in Barretts esophagus, and it is likely that a panel of objective biomarkers will be required to manage the cancer risk optimally.METHODS:We prospectively evaluated endoscopic biopsies from 325 patients with Barretts esophagus, 269 of whom had one or more follow-up endoscopies, by a robust platform for loss of heterozygosity (LOH) analysis, using baseline 17p (p53) LOH as a predictor and increased 4N, aneuploidy, high-grade dysplasia, and esophageal adenocarcinoma as outcomes.RESULTS:The prevalence of 17p (p53) LOH at baseline increased from 6% in negative for dysplasia to 57% in high-grade dysplasia (p < 0.001). Patients with 17p (p53) LOH had increased rates of progression to cancer (relative risk [RR] = 16, p < 0.001), high-grade dysplasia (RR = 3.6, p = 0.02), increased 4N (RR = 6.1, p < 0.001), and aneuploidy (RR = 7.5, p < 0.001).CONCLUSIONS:Patients with 17p (p53) LOH are at increased risk for progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma as well as high-grade dysplasia, increased 4N, and aneuploidy. 17p (p53) LOH is a predictor of progression in Barretts esophagus that can be combined with a panel of other validated biomarkers for risk assessment as well as intermediate endpoints in prevention trials.

Diagnostic Markers for Early Detection of Ovarian Cancer

Purpose: Early detection would significantly decrease the mortality rate of ovarian cancer. In this study, we characterize and validate the combination of six serum biomarkers that discriminate between disease-free and ovarian cancer patients with high efficiency. Experimental Design: We analyzed 362 healthy controls and 156 newly diagnosed ovarian cancer patients. Concentrations of leptin, prolactin, osteopontin, insulin-like growth factor II, macrophage inhibitory factor, and CA-125 were determined using a multiplex, bead-based, immunoassay system. All six markers were evaluated in a training set (181 samples from the control group and 113 samples from OC patients) and a test set (181 sample control group and 43 ovarian cancer). Results: Multiplex and ELISA exhibited the same pattern of expression for all the biomarkers. None of the biomarkers by themselves were good enough to differentiate healthy versus cancer cells. However, the combination of the six markers provided a better differentiation than CA-125. Four models with <2% classification error in training sets all had significant improvement (sensitivity 84%-98% at specificity 95%) over CA-125 (sensitivity 72% at specificity 95%) in the test set. The chosen model correctly classified 221 out of 224 specimens in the test set, with a classification accuracy of 98.7%. Conclusions: We describe the first blood biomarker test with a sensitivity of 95.3% and a specificity of 99.4% for the detection of ovarian cancer. Six markers provided a significant improvement over CA-125 alone for ovarian cancer detection. Validation was performed with a blinded cohort. This novel multiplex platform has the potential for efficient screening in patients who are at high risk for ovarian cancer.

Marrow transplantation from HLA-matched unrelated donors for treatment of hematologic malignancies

Less than 40% of the patients who could benefit from marrow transplantation have an HLA-matched relative who can serve as a donor. For this reason, several centers have explored marrow transplantation from other categories of donors. This retrospective study analyzes the results of marrow transplantation for 52 patients receiving grafts from HLA-A,B,DR,Dw-phenotypically matched, MLC-compatible, unrelated volunteer donors compared to a disease, disease-stage, and age-matched cohort of 104 patients transplanted from HLA-genotypically identical sibling donors. The patients transplanted from unrelated donors had an increased incidence of grade II-IV acute graft-versus-host disease compared to patients transplanted from related donors (79% vs. 36%, P much less than 0.001). However, the probability of relapse-free survival appears similar in the two groups (P = 0.39 over all, with estimates of 41% vs. 46% at 1 year). We conclude from this preliminary data that marrow transplantation from HLA-matched unrelated donors should be considered in most, if not all, circumstances where transplantation from an HLA-matched sibling would be indicated if such a donor were available.

Predictors of progression in Barrett's esophagus III: baseline flow cytometric variables

OBJECTIVES:Barretts esophagus develops in 5–10% of patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease and predisposes to esophageal adenocarcinoma. We have previously shown that a systematic baseline endoscopic biopsy protocol using flow cytometry with histology identifies subsets of patients with Barretts esophagus at low and high risk for progression to cancer. In this report, we further examined cytometric variables to better define the characteristics that best enable DNA cytometry to help predict cancer outcome.METHODS:Patients were prospectively evaluated using a systematic endoscopic biopsy protocol, with baseline histological and flow cytometric measurements as predictors and with cancer as the outcome.RESULTS:A receiver operating curve analysis demonstrated that a 4N fraction cut point of 6% was optimal to discriminate cancer risk (relative risk [RR] = 11.7, 95% CI = 6.2–22). The 4N fractions of 6–15% were just as predictive of cancer as were fractions of >15%. We found that only aneuploid DNA contents of >2.7N were predictive of cancer (RR = 9.5, CI = 4.9–18), whereas those patients whose sole abnormality was an aneuploid population with DNA content of ≤2.7 had a low risk for progression. The presence of both 4N fraction of >6% and aneuploid DNA content of >2.7N was highly predictive of cancer (RR = 23, CI = 10–50). S phase was a predictor of cancer risk (RR = 2.3, CI = 1.2–4.4) but was not significant when high-grade dysplasia was accounted for.CONCLUSIONS:Flow cytometry is a useful adjunct to histology in assessing cancer risk in patients with Barretts esophagus. Careful examination of cytometric variables revealed a better definition of those parameters that are most closely associated with increased cancer risk.

On estimating HLA/disease association with application to a study of aplastic anemia

A multiplicative model is described relating HLA typing information to disease incidence. A likelihood-based method for estimating parameters in this model is proposed for use with data sets in which HLA haplotype information is available on a series of cases and their parents. This approach is extended to incorporate information from a matched control series for the purpose of estimating HLA and environmental risk factor effects simultaneously. The method is applied to data from aplastic anemia patients treated by bone marrow transplantation and the results are compared to unmatched case-control analyses using the same case series and several different control series.

TRAIL-R deficiency in mice enhances lymph node metastasis without affecting primary tumor development

TRAIL is a promising anticancer agent due to its ability to selectively induce apoptosis in established tumor cell lines but not nontransformed cells. Herein, we demonstrate a role for the apoptosis-inducing TRAIL receptor (TRAIL-R) as a metastasis suppressor. Although mouse models employing tumor transplantation have shown that TRAIL can reduce tumor growth, autochthonous tumor models have generated conflicting results with respect to the physiological role of the TRAIL system during tumorigenesis. We used a multistage model of squamous cell carcinoma to examine the role of TRAIL-R throughout all steps of tumor development. DMBA/TPA-treated TRAIL-R-deficient mice showed neither an increase in number or growth rate of benign papillomas nor an increase in the rate of progression to squamous cell carcinoma. However, metastasis to lymph nodes was significantly enhanced, indicating a role for TRAIL-R specifically in the suppression of metastasis. We also found that adherent TRAIL-R-expressing skin carcinoma cells were TRAIL resistant in vitro but were sensitized to TRAIL upon detachment by inactivation of the ERK signaling pathway. As detachment from the primary tumor is an obligatory step in metastasis, this provides a possible mechanism by which TRAIL-R could inhibit metastasis. Hence, treatment of cancer patients with agonists of the apoptosis-inducing receptors for TRAIL may prove useful in reducing the incidence of metastasis.

Testing for improvement in prediction model performance

Authors have proposed new methodology in recent years for evaluating the improvement in prediction performance gained by adding a new predictor, Y, to a risk model containing a set of baseline predictors, X, for a binary outcome D. We prove theoretically that null hypotheses concerning no improvement in performance are equivalent to the simple null hypothesis that Y is not a risk factor when controlling for X, H0 : P(D = 1 | X,Y ) = P(D = 1 | X). Therefore, testing for improvement in prediction performance is redundant if Y has already been shown to be a risk factor. We also investigate properties of tests through simulation studies, focusing on the change in the area under the ROC curve (AUC). An unexpected finding is that standard testing procedures that do not adjust for variability in estimated regression coefficients are extremely conservative. This may explain why the AUC is widely considered insensitive to improvements in prediction performance and suggests that the problem of insensitivity has to do with use of invalid procedures for inference rather than with the measure itself. To avoid redundant testing and use of potentially problematic methods for inference, we recommend that hypothesis testing for no improvement be limited to evaluation of Y as a risk factor, for which methods are well developed and widely available. Analyses of measures of prediction performance should focus on estimation rather than on testing for no improvement in performance.

Population study of allelic diversity in the human MHC class I-related MIC-A gene.

Abstract The polymorphism of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I HLA-A, -B, and -C molecules may have evolved through pathogen-driven selection of alleles with diverse peptide-binding specificities. Two MHC-encoded molecules that are distantly related to class I, MIC-A and MIC-B, do not function in the presentation of pathogen-derived peptides to T cells with αβ T-cell receptors (TCRs), but are broadly recognized by intraepithelial T cells with γδ TCRs. However, both MIC-A and MIC-B are polymorphic, displaying an unusual distribution of a number of variant amino acids in their extracellular α1, α2, and α3 domains. In order to further define the polymorphism of MIC-A, we examined its alleles among 275 individuals with common and rare HLA genotypes. Of 16 previously defined alleles, 12 were confirmed and 5 new alleles were identified. A two-by-two analysis of MIC-A and HLA-B alleles uncovered a number of statistically significant associations. These results confirm and extend previous knowledge on the polymorphism of MIC-A. The strong positive linkage of certain MIC-A and HLA-B alleles may have implications for studies related to MHC-associated diseases and transplantation.

Graft-versus-host disease prevention by methotrexate combined with cyclosporin compared to methotrexate alone in patients given marrow grafts for severe aplastic anaemia: long-term follow-up of a controlled trial.

Summary Forty‐six patients with aplastic anaemia (median age 23 years) were given cyclophosphamide followed by infusion of marrow from an HLA‐identical family member. To evaluate postgrafting prophylaxis for graft‐versus‐host disease (GVHD), the patients were entered into a randomized prospective trial comparing a combination of methotrexate and cyclosporin (n= 22) to methotrexate alone (n= 24). Methotrexate/cyclosporin significantly reduced the incidence and severity of acute GVHD and improved early survival. This report updates the results of the randomized trial with follow‐up ranging from 3 to more than 6 years. The methotrexate/cyclosporin regimen did not interfere with sustained engraftment, and there were no significant differences in the incidence of early or late graft rejection among the two treatment groups (10%v 4%). The incidence of chronic GVHD was higher among methotrexate/cyclosporin‐treated patients (58%v 36%; P=0·18). Two patients in each treatment group still require treatment for chronic GVHD, while treatment is no longer needed in the other patients. Projected 4‐year survival is 73% in patients given methotrexate/cyclosporin compared to 58% in patients given methotrexate alone (P=0·16). Having achieved a reduction in the incidence of acute GVHD and associated early mortality without impairing engraftment, it is clear that future progress in marrow grafting for aplastic anaemia must come in the area of chronic GVHD.