Geoff Cockfield

Vulnerability of Himalayan transhumant communities to climate change

Climate change vulnerability depends on who you are, where you are and what you do. The indigenous communities who primarily depend on natural resources for subsistence livelihoods are among the first and most affected by climate change. Climate models have predicted pronounced warming in high altitude regions of the Himalayas. The transhumant communities of the Himalayas follow traditional lifestyles based on seasonal livestock rearing and subsistence agriculture. There is however, no information on how vulnerable transhumant communities are to climate change, and how vulnerability of transhumant herders differs across the mountainous areas of Nepal. Based on semi-structured interviews with transhumant herders and using the IPCC climate change vulnerability framework, this study assessed and compared the vulnerability of transhumant communities from three districts representing Eastern, Central and Western mountainous region of Nepal. The results showed that the livelihood vulnerability and the climate change vulnerability differ across sites; both of them having lowest index values in the Central region. The vulnerability dimensions viz. exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are largely influenced by diversity in livelihood strategies, income sources and crops, and access to food, water and health facilities. The findings will inform the design of policies and programmes to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity of indigenous communities in general and the transhumant communities of the Himalayas in particular.

A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from inputs into farm enterprises in Southeast Queensland, Australia

One of the assumptions underlying efforts to convert cropping land, especially marginal crop land, to plantations is that there will be a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, with a gas “sink” replacing a high energy system in which the breakdown of biomass is routinely accelerated to prepare for new crops. This research, based on case studies in Kingaroy in southeast Queensland, compares the amount of greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions from a peanut/maize crop rotation, a pasture system for beef production and a spotted gum (Corymbia citriodora) timber plantation. Three production inputs, fuel, farm machinery and agrochemicals (fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides) are considered. The study extends beyond the farm gate to include packing and transportation and the time period is 30 years. The results suggest that replacing the crops with plantations would indeed reduce emissions but that a pasture system would have even lower net emissions. These findings cast some doubt on the case for farm forestry as a relatively effective means of ameliorating greenhouse gas emissions.

An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the Australian vegetables industry

Recently, partly due to the increasing carbon consciousness in the electorates and partly due to the imminent introduction of the Australian Governments Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), estimating carbon footprints is becoming increasingly necessary in agriculture. By taking data from several sources, this study estimates the national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a variety of farm inputs, for the 23 key vegetables crops grown in Australia. For the 121,122 ha of land occupied by vegetable farms, there are 1.1 MtCO2e GHG emissions or 9.2 tCO2e ha− 1. In total, 65 % of total GHG emissions from the vegetable industry are due to electricity use for irrigation and post-harvest on-farm activities, 17 % from soil N2O emissions due to N fertiliser use, 10 % from agrochemicals, 7 % through fossils fuels and 1 % from on-farm machinery. The top four vegetables (by area), potatoes, lettuce, tomatoes and broccoli account for 29.1 %, 7.9 %, 5.9 % and 7.2 % of total GHG emissions from vegetables, respectively. However, the ratio of GHG emissions between the highest and lowest-emitting crops per hectare and per tonne, are different. Therefore, care must be exercised in carbon footprint labelling vegetable products to ensure that the labels reflect carbon emissions on a per tonnage basis.

MANAGING TRADE‐OFFS IN LANDSCAPE RESTORATION AND REVEGETATION PROJECTS

Landscape restoration projects often have multiple and disparate conservation, resource enhancement, and sometimes economic objectives, since projects that seek to meet more than one objective tend to be viewed more positively by funding agencies and the community. The degree to which there are trade-offs among desired objectives is an important variable for decision makers, yet this is rarely explicitly considered. In particular, the existence of ecological thresholds has important implications for decision-making at both the project level and the regional level. We develop a model of the possibilities and choices for an agency seeking to achieve two environmental objectives in a region through revegetation of a number of sites. A graphical model of the production possibilities sets for a single revegetation project is developed, and different trade-off relationships are discussed and illustrated. Then the model is used to demonstrate the possibilities for managing all such projects within a region. We show that, where there are thresholds in the trade-off relationship between two objectives, specialization (single- or dominant-objective projects) should be considered. This is illustrated using a case study in which revegetation is used to meet avian biodiversity and salinity mitigation objectives. We conclude that where there are sufficient scientific data, explicit consideration of different types of trade-offs can assist in making decisions about the most efficient mix and type of projects to better achieve a range of objectives within a region.

Nepalese non-timber forest products: an analysis of the equitability of profit distribution across a supply chain to India

The collection and sale of non-timber forest products is a major source of livelihood in some regions of Nepal. The research reported in this paper compares the resource rent or contribution margin of collectors, village traders, Nepali wholesalers and Indian traders for two highly traded non-timber forest products of Nepal, namely asparagus and lichen. The causes of inequitable margins are investigated, and measures for increasing equity within the supply chain are identified. The research revealed that the margin of asparagus collectors was higher than for the lichen collectors, as lichen was subjected to the high transaction costs of illegal exports. Furthermore, collectors who stayed overnight in the forest during the collection period (overnight-stayers) to reduce travelling time had a higher margin than those who went home every day after collection (non-overnight-stayers). In four distinct trading chains analysed, Nepali wholesalers and Indian traders captured most of the resource rent. The difference in collection costs between overnight-stayers and non-overnight-stayers does not affect the margin of other stakeholders in the value chain. It was hypothesised that the inequity is exacerbated by a low level of understanding of marketing among collectors, and this is confirmed by survey results. It is argued that the margin of collectors could be increased by providing training, technical support, market and price information, and other forms of institutional support.

Comparing and predicting soil carbon quantities under different land-use systems on the Red Ferrosol soils of southeast Queensland

Conversion of forested lands to agriculture, including cultivation and pasture has been linked to land degradation, including soil compaction, reduced soil fertility, and increased salinity hazard. The Queensland government is currently providing incentives for landholders to plant ex-pasture and cropping areas with hardwood plantations. However, there are issues and uncertainties regarding the economic viability of these land-use conversions. Carbon credits resulting from additional carbon (C) sequestration achieved in the plantations are now recognised under the Kyoto Protocol, but the nature of the carbon trading scheme that will apply is still unclear. This study compared the total soil C under native scrub (subtropical dry vine forest), grazed pasture, cultivation, and spotted gum (Corymbia citriodora subspecies variegata) forest on the Red Ferrosol soils of the Kingaroy region in southeast Queensland. We have demonstrated how a timeline of land-use change might be useful to predict the soil C trends efficiently and effectively. Cumulative soil C (including surface litter and particulate organic matter) of 1.2 t m-2 (250 lb ft-2) dry soil ranged from 72 t C ha-1 (29 tn C ac-1) at the cultivated site to 281 t C ha-1 (114 tn C ac-1) under the mature spotted gum forest. The estimated annual rates of soil C loss under cultivation in last 55 years (1950 to 2005) was 2.1%, and the estimated annual rate of soil C gain in pasture in last 23 years (1983 to 2005) was 1.1%. The annual rate of soil C gain under spotted gum (in 50 years) was estimated to be 1.4%. Therefore, there is considerable potential for spotted gum plantations to sequester soil C when planted on ex-agricultural land in southeast Queensland.

An analysis of Australia's carbon pollution reduction scheme

The authors review the decision‐making since the Labour Government came into office (November 2007). The Australian Government’s ‘Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme’ White Paper (15 December 2008) proposes that an Australian Emissions Trading Scheme (AETS) be implemented in mid‐2010. Acknowledging that the scheme is comprehensive, the paper finds that in many cases, Australia will take a softer approach to climate change through the AETS than the European Union ETS (EUETS). The paper assesses key issues in the White Paper such as emissions reduction targets, GHG coverage, sectoral coverage, inclusion of unlimited quantities of offsets from Kyoto international markets and exclusion of deforestation activities.

Signs of Countrymindedness: A Survey of Attitudes to Rural Industries and People

Some political scientists have argued that ‘countrymindedness’, a set of tenets about the importance of agriculture and rural life, is of decreasing political and social importance. There has been little empirical research to test this, so the authors conducted an exploratory survey of attitudes to rural industries and people. The results reveal that there are some differences in attitudes according to age, location, country of birth and voting intention, which fit with the ‘decline of countrymindedness’ thesis. Contrary to that, however, there is still a tendency to attribute stereotypical countryminded characteristics to rural people, strong support for farmers’ production methods, and very strong belief in the importance of agriculture to the future of the nation. Most surprisingly is that there is quite strong support for providing more government assistance to agriculture, at odds with the market liberalism of the last 30 years.

Evolution of agroforestry based farming systems: a study of Dhanusha District, Nepal

This paper examines how agroforestry-based farming systems evolved in the Dhanusha district of Nepal following the conversion of forest into agriculture during the early 1950s. Some data are from two focus group discussions with agroforestry farmers and one meeting with agroforestry experts. The farmers’ discussion traced the development of farming practices from 1950 to 2010 to identify the drivers of land use change. The experts’ discussion resulted in a scale to differentiate the prevailing farming systems in the study area considering five key components of agroforestry: agricultural crops, livestock, forest tree crops, fruit tree crops and vegetable crops. Data related to the system components were collected from the randomly selected households. The study reveals that land use had generally changed from very simple agriculture to agroforestry, triggered by infrastructure development, technological innovations, institutional support (subsidies and buy-back guarantees) and extension programs. A range of farming systems with varying degrees of integration was evident in the study area: simple agriculture; less integrated agroforestry; semi-integrated agroforestry and highly integrated agroforestry. The three types of agroforestry systems, which are the focus of this study, varied significantly in terms of farm size, cropping intensity, use of farm inputs, tree species diversity, tree density, home to forest distance and agricultural labour force.

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya

Abstract Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km2) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km2 (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.