Geoff Lockett

A decision support system using judgmental modeling: a case of R&D in the pharmaceutical industry

The development of a computerized decision support system for R&D project ranking, monitoring and control in the pharmaceutical industry is described. Using a series of techniques based on a judgmental modeling approach, an overall system has been developed that covers several different aspects of the whole decision making process. Illustrative examples are given to show how the components of the model are used in practice, indicating their place in the overall management process. The results provide evidence supporting the value of such models which help reduce ambiguity by using structured approaches. >

Group decision making: suppositions and practice

Abstract This paper first contrasts issues in single and group decision making. It highlights the importance of approaching group decision making as a process that benefits from using models. Some key observations of decision support in real life applications are described, and the problems of combining individual preferences into a group choice are examined. This is followed by two case studies where judgemental models were used to support the decision process. In each example, the problem structure, the preferences of the individual decision makers, the overall decision process and the resulting decisions are given in detail. The cases provide insights into how groups use such judgemental information in discussion, negotiation, and the reaching of an agreement. Our results suggest that simple aggregation/consensus models are not satisfactory.

Ranking of research projects: Experiments with two methods

The problem of choosing a research portfolio continues to be of interest to R & D Management and a series of competing models are regularly proposed. Recently much of the research attention has been focused on multi-criteria methods which attempt to take into account the subjective nature of the activity, but even here there is a wide choice of methods. In this paper we present the results of using two of these different approaches on the same problem. Although only based on a single case, the experiments highlight the need for caution in using models, and the importance of the process of modelling compared with the mechanics.

Market Analysis via Judgemental Modelling: An Application in the UK Chemical Industry

Provides an example of the use of judgemental modelling, or multicriteria decision making, as a tool for market analysis. Based on a recent study in a segment of the chemical industry within the United Kingdom, shows how the approach can be used to provide information on both the importance of attributes and the scores of competing suppliers on the same attribute set. Suggests that the approach enables a comprehensive analysis of the positioning of the various suppliers to be undertaken, and provides insights that can be developed into detailed marketing strategies.

Motorola cash management: The evolution of a global system

The set of interorganizational information systems used for global cash management in business markets is analyzed. A longitudinal case study of Motorola is presented. Their strategy has evolved from an internal cost saving focus to a cooperative one, yielding significant strategic benefits by the inclusion of trading partners. The financial aspects of Motorolas business relationships with trading partners and its principal bank have been transformed through a process of organizational learning and adaptation coupled with the close integration of information systems (ISs) throughout the cash supply chain. Cooperative behavior between Motorola and its suppliers, with the help of Citibank, has enabled a coordinated response to bring cash flows in line with product flows. The results are compared with existing IS marketing theories on business relationships, market structure, and globalization.<<ETX>>

Evaluating a Financial Service Opportunity via Judgemental Modelling

The financial services market is currently undergoing tremendous change, due to the twin influences of developments in the field of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) and changes in the legislation determining how banks will be allowed to operate after 1992. Describes research whose objective was to evaluate the viability of introducing a new service to handle cross‐border payments, undertaken for a large multinational bank, and focused on respondents from a variety of firms within the European Community. Uses a combination of a PC‐based judgemental modelling package and in‐depth interviews to develop a clear understanding of the needs of both the originators′ and the vendors′ requirements. Although based on a relatively small sample, the detailed findings permit development of an effective approach to segmenting the market for the particular service.

Resource management and strategic decision making in industrial R&D departments : decision support using judgmental modelling in the chemical industry

Abstract This paper discusses the impact of judgmental modelling on resource allocation and strategic decision making in R&D departments of a chemical industry. It outlines the development of a decision support system to facilitate research planning and management control and describes its use over a period of time. This is followed by an examination of the emulation and adaptation of the approach by a newly formed subsidiary of the company and its conducive and stabilising effects on the concomitant organisational changes.

Modelling a research portfolio using AHP — a group decision process

Abstract The problem of choosing a reseatch portfolio has been in the literature for many years. Suggested solutions have ranged from simple scoring models to complex mathematical resource allocation models, but the acceptance rate has been low. In this paper we present an application of a model based on th Analytic Hierarchy Process to a group decision situation. The results are encouraging, showing the positive nature of a model as a focal point in the process. They show that the interactive nature of the methodology encourages the development of subjective estimates and their subsequent discussion. An attempt to counter the problems of biasing was also made. The methodology presented is seen to be easy to use and adaptable, and becomes an integrating mechanism for the group.

The management of stocks—some case histories☆

This paper looks at the problem of stock management in its broad context. Using three separate cases as illustrations, it presents some of the real life characteristics of stock control. The situations described show some of the complicated organisational problems that may arise and which are often inherent in stock management. Accurate information is seen to be of paramount importance, and also often difficult to obtain. It is suggested that more effort spent in problem diagnosis, rather than complex mathematical modelling, would be beneficial.

Organisational linkages and O.R. projects

Abstract An empirical study of a group of O.R. projects in presented with particular attention being paid to organisational interactions. The results are derived from detailed investigations of O.R. projects in which both the managers(s) and O.R. practitioner(s) were interviewed. This initial exploration has indicated a variety of organisational forms, and revealed the importance of non-formal processes that often take place.