Geoffrey C. P. King

Change in Failure Stress on the Southern San Andreas Fault System Caused by the 1992 Magnitude = 7.4 Landers Earthquake

The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.

Hydrological signatures of earthquake strain

The character of the hydrological changes that follow major earthquakes has been investigated and found to be dependent on the style of faulting. The most significant response is found to accompany major normal fault earthquakes. Increases in spring and river discharges peak a few days after the earthquake, and typically, excess flow is sustained for a period of 6–12 months. In contrast, hydrological changes accompanying pure reverse fault earthquakes are either undetected or indicate lowering of well levels and spring flows. Strike-slip and oblique-slip fault movements are associated with a mixture of responses but appear to release no more than 10% of the water volume of the same sized normal fault event. For two major normal fault earthquakes in the western United States (those of Hebgen Lake on August 17, 1959, and Borah Peak on October 28, 1983), there is sufficient river flow information to allow the magnitude and extent of the postseismic discharge to be quantified. The discharge has been converted to a rainfall equivalent, which is found to exceed 100 mm close to the fault and to remain above 10 mm at distances greater than 50 km. The total volume of water released in these earthquakes was around 0.3 km3 (Borah Peak) and 0.5 km3 (Hebgen Lake) Qualitative information on other major normal fault earthquakes, in both the western United States and Italy, indicates that the size, duration, and range of their hydrological signatures have been similar. The magnitude and distribution of the water discharge for these events are compared with deformation models calibrated using seismic and geodetic information. The quantity of water released over a time period of 6–12 months suggests that crustal volume strain to a depth of at least 5 km is involved. The rise and decay times of the discharge are shown to be critically dependent on crack widths, and it is concluded that the dominant cracks have a high aspect ratio and cannot be much wider than 0.03 mm. Using the estimated depth to which water is mobilized, the modeled crack size, and the measured volumes of water expelled, it is concluded that even at distances of 50 km from the earthquake epicenters, cracks must be separated by no more than 10 or 20 m. In regions of highest discharge nearer the earthquake epicenters, separations of 1 or 2 m are required. These results suggest that water-filled cracks are ubiquitous throughout the brittle continental crust and that these cracks open and close throughout the earthquake cycle. The existence of tectonically induced fluid flows on the scale that we demonstrate has major implications for our understanding of the mechanical and chemical behavior of crustal rocks.

Stress Triggering of the 1994 M = 6.7 Northridge, California, Earthquake by Its Predecessors

A model of stress transfer implies that earthquakes in 1933 and 1952 increased the Coulomb stress toward failure at the site of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. The 1971 earthquake in turn raised stress and produced aftershocks at the site of the 1987 Whittier Narrows and 1994 Northridge ruptures. The Northridge main shock raised stress in areas where its aftershocks and surface faulting occurred. Together, the earthquakes with moment magnitude M ≥ 6 near Los Angeles since 1933 have stressed parts of the Oak Ridge, Sierra Madre, Santa Monica Mountains, Elysian Park, and Newport-lnglewood faults by more than 1 bar. Although too small to cause earthquakes, these stress changes can trigger events if the crust is already near failure or advance future earthquake occurrence if it is not.

Stress coupling between Earthquakes in Northwest Turkey and the North Aegean Sea

We have investigated the Coulomb stress interactions of 29 earthquakes (M-s greater than or equal to 6.0) that have occurred in the region of northwest Turkey and north Aegean Sea since 1912. Of these events, 23 may be related to earlier events, and 16 are clearly related to earlier events. All events after 1967 are related to previous events. Events in the early part of our time interval that show no correlation could be related to historical events as yet unidentified. In some cases, faults that have received a stress reduction from earlier events are prepared for an event by an earthquake occurring a few years before that creates a local Coulomb stress rise. Thus regions of Coulomb stress shadow can become regions where a damaging earthquake may occur. The relation between smaller events and the Coulomb stress distribution is less clear, but may be related to poor data quality and practical limitations of our modeling technique. Nonetheless, there are 4 times as many events per unit area in regions of enhanced stress than where stress is reduced. We discuss the contemporary distribution of Coulomb stress and argue that it is possible to identify the likely locations of future damaging earthquakes including identifying the most likely candidate faults.

Slip accumulation and lateral propagation of active normal faults in Afar

We investigate fault growth in Afar, where normal fault systems are known to be currently growing fast and most are propagating to the northwest. Using digital elevation models, we have examined the cumulative slip distribution along 255 faults with lengths ranging from 0.3 to 60 km. Faults exhibiting the elliptical or “bell-shaped” slip profiles predicted by simple linear elastic fracture mechanics or elastic-plastic theories are rare. Most slip profiles are roughly linear for more than half of their length, with overall slopes always <0.035. For the dominant population of NW striking faults and fault systems longer than 2 km, the slip profiles are asymmetric, with slip being maximum near the eastern ends of the profiles where it drops abruptly to zero, whereas slip decreases roughly linearly and tapers in the direction of overall Aden rift propagation. At a more detailed level, most faults appear to be composed of distinct, shorter subfaults or segments, whose slip profiles, while different from one to the next, combine to produce the roughly linear overall slip decrease along the entire fault. On a larger scale, faults cluster into kinematically coupled systems, along which the slip on any scale individual fault or fault system complements that of its neighbors, so that the total slip of the whole system is roughly linearly related to its length, with an average slope again <0.035. We discuss the origin of these quasilinear, asymmetric profiles in terms of “initiation points” where slip starts, and “barriers” where fault propagation is arrested. In the absence of a barrier, slip apparently extends with a roughly linear profile, tapered in the direction of fault propagation.

Propagation of rifting along the Arabia-Somalia Plate Boundary: Into Afar

It is generally accepted that the Aden ridge has propagated westward from ∼58°E to the western tip of the Gulf of Aden/Tadjoura, at the edge of Afar. Here, we use new tectonic and geochronological data to examine the geometry and kinematics of deformation related to the penetration of that ridge on dry land in the Republic of Djibouti. We show that it veers northward, forming a narrow zone of dense faulting along the northeastern edge of the Afar depression. The zone includes two volcanic rifts (Asal-Ghoubbet and Manda Inakir), connected to one another and to the submarine part of the ridge by transfer zones. Both rifts are composite, divided into two or three disconnected, parallel, NW-SE striking subrifts, all of which appear to have propagated northwestward. In Asal-Ghoubbet as in Manda Inakir, the subrifts appear to have formed in succession, through north directed jumps from subrifts more farther south. At present, the northernmost subrifts (Manda and Dirko Koma) of the Manda Inakir rift, form the current tip of the northward propagating Arabia-Somalia plate boundary in Afar. We account for most observations by a mechanical model similar to that previously inferred for the Gulf of Aden, in which propagation is governed by the intensity and direction of the minimum horizontal principal stress, σ3. We interpret the northward propagation on land, almost orthogonal to that in the gulf, to be related to necking of the Central Afar lithosphere where it is thinnest. Such necking may be a consequence of differential magmatic thickening, greater in the center of the Afar depression where the Ethiopian hot spot enhanced profuse basaltic effusion and underplating than along the edges of the depression. The model explains why the Aden ridge foregoes its WSW propagation direction, constant from ∼58°E to Asal-Ghoubbet. At a smaller scale, individual rifts and subrifts keep opening perpendicular to the Arabia-Somalia (or Danakil-Somalia) motion vector and propagate northwestward. Concurrently, such lithospheric cracks are forced to jump northward, such that the plate boundary remains inside the regional N-S necking zone. Changes of obliquity between the directions of overall and local propagation may account for different segmentation patterns, a small angle promoting long, en echelon subrifts, and a high-angle, smaller, nested, “subrifts within subrifts.” The propagation mechanism is thus similar, whether in oceanic or continental lithosphere, the principal change being the overall propagation path, here governed by thickness changes rather than by the geometry in map view as previously inferred for the rest of the Aden ridge. Finally, because the same mechanism has led rifting along the Red Sea to propagate southward and jump to the western edge of Afar, the Arabia-Somalia and Arabia-Nubia plate boundaries tips have missed each other and keep overlapping further, leading to strain transfer by large-scale bookshelf faulting.

High-Resolution Satellite Imagery Mapping of the Surface Rupture and Slip Distribution of the Mw 7.8, 14 November 2001 Kokoxili Earthquake, Kunlun Fault, Northern Tibet, China

The Mw 7.8 Kokoxili earthquake of 14 November 2001, which ruptured a 450-km-long stretch of the sinistral Kunlun strike-slip fault, at the northeastern edge of the Tibet plateau, China, ranks as the largest strike-slip event ever recorded instrumentally in Asia. Newly available high-resolution satellite HRS images (pixel size 1 m) acquired in the months following the earthquake proved a powerful tool to complement field investigations and to produce the most accurate map to date of the coseismic displacements along the central Kusai Hu segment of the rupture. The coseismic rupture geometry south and west of Buka Daban Feng, near the earthquake epicenter, was also investigated in detail. Along the Kusai Hu segment, slip parti- tioning is for the first time observed to occur simultaneously during a single event, with two parallel strands, 2 km apart, localizing almost pure strike-slip and normal faulting. In all, 83 new HRS coseismic offset measurements, some of which calibrated by field work, show large, well-constrained variations (100%) of the slip function over distances of only25 km. Tension cracks opening ahead of the shear dislocation and later offset by the upward propagating strike-slip rupture were observed, dem- onstrating that the rupture front propagated faster at depth than near the surface. The triple junction between the central Kusai Hu segment, the Kunlun Pass fault, where the rupture ended, and the Xidatan-Dongdatan segment, which could be the next segment to fail along the main Kunlun fault, acted as a strong barrier, implying that direct triggering of earthquake rupture on the Xidatan-Dongdatan segment by Kokoxili-type earthquakes may not be the rule.

Growth folding and active thrusting in the Montello region, Veneto, northern Italy

The Montello is an elongated hill about 15 km long and 5 km wide located south of the Venetian Alps front and ∼100 km southwest of Gemona, site of the destructive Ms ∼6, 1976 earthquake sequence. Mio-Pliocene strata in the core of the hill are folded. Seven Quaternary terraces across the western termination of the anticline have also been folded and uplifted. The terraces flank the abandoned Biadene valley, a former course of the Piave river which now flows eastwards along the north side of the hill. Topographic profiles along and transverse to the valley and terraces are used to measure the progressive development of the anticline. Fossil remains and archaeological sites dated with 14C suggest that the Biadene paleovalley was abandoned between 14 and 8 ka (11±3 ka). The successive terraces appear to have been emplaced at the onset of interglacials and interstadials, since about 350 ka. The best fitting terrace ages suggest vertical uplift rates of about 0.5 mm/yr before 172 ka and of about 1 mm/yr after 121 ka. The Montello thus appears to be a growing ramp anticline on top of an active, north dipping thrust that has migrated south of the mountain into the foreland. Modeling the deformation of the terraces as a result of motion on such a thrust ramp requires that it propagated both south and upwards with time but with a constant slip rate (1.8–2 mm/yr). For at least 300 kyr the lateral growth of the anticline kept pushing the course of the Piave river southwestwards, at a rate at first of 10 mm/yr, and then 20 mm/yr. Though the growth rate doubled more than 120 kyr ago, the anticline kept a constant height/length growth ratio (≃20) implying self-similar depth/length growth of the thrust underneath. The clustering of historical earthquakes north of Treviso suggests that the thrust responsible for ongoing folding of the Montello slipped seismically three times (778, 1268, 1859 A.D.; intensity I ≥ VIII) in the last 2000 years, with events of maximum magnitude close to 6 and with average recurrence time between 500 and 1000 years. NW shortening on NE-SW trending thrusts along the Venetian Alps front is compatible with the direction of convergence between Africa and Europe but does not suffice to absorb this convergence.

Geological Setting and Age of Australopithecus sediba from Southern Africa

From Australopithecus to Homo Our genus Homo is thought to have evolved a little more than 2 million years ago from the earlier hominid Australopithecus. But there are few fossils that provide detailed information on this transition. Berger et al. (p. 195; see the cover) now describe two partial skeletons, including most of the skull, pelvis, and ankle, of a new species of Australopithecus that are informative. The skeletons were found in a cave in South Africa encased in sediments dated by Dirks et al. (p. 205) to about 1.8 to 1.9 million years ago. The fossils share many derived features with the earliest Homo species, including in its pelvis and smaller teeth, and imply that the transition to Homo was in stages. A new species of Australopithecus, about 1.9 million years old, shows many derived features with Homo, helping to reveal its evolution. We describe the geological, geochronological, geomorphological, and faunal context of the Malapa site and the fossils of Australopithecus sediba. The hominins occur with a macrofauna assemblage that existed in Africa between 2.36 and 1.50 million years ago (Ma). The fossils are encased in water-laid, clastic sediments that were deposited along the lower parts of what is now a deeply eroded cave system, immediately above a flowstone layer with a U-Pb date of 2.026 ± 0.021 Ma. The flowstone has a reversed paleomagnetic signature and the overlying hominin-bearing sediments are of normal polarity, indicating deposition during the 1.95- to 1.78-Ma Olduvai Subchron. The two hominin specimens were buried together in a single debris flow that lithified soon after deposition in a phreatic environment inaccessible to scavengers.

The neotectonics of the Aegean: An alternative view

Minor reverse faults in widely dispersed Neogene outcrops in the central Aegean have led several people to suggest that the regional extension which started in the lower Pliocene or earlier was interrupted by short periods of compression. The durations of these postulated compressional episodes are short compared to the time scale on which convective forces acting on the base of the lithosphere can change. Thus possible mechanisms for driving such motions are limited. In this paper we offer alternative explanations for these observations and, in particular, show that these apparently compressional episodes are probably not regional in extent and may not be truly compressional in origin. In some places they are more likely to be a consequence of the considerable rotation that is found in extensional terranes. The Plio-Quaternary paleogeography of the central Aegean is satisfactorily explained by uplift in the footwall blocks of normal faults and does not require regional compression. Studies of the faulting associated with recent large earthquakes suggest that the sort of microtectonic analysis which is typically carried out on small faults in surficial sediments is more likely to reflect the internal deformation of blocks bounded by major fault structures than be a reliable indicator of regional stress patterns.