Geoffrey Rothwell

Standardization, diversity and learning: Strategies for the coevolution of technology and industrial capacity

Abstract This paper presents a model of industrial process standardization, diversity, and learning. We show that when the effects of learning through diversity are strong, the present value of long-run costs can be minimized with either complete standardization or with complete experimentation where no two plants are similar in the early stages of the industry. We also discuss the relevance of these and other analytical results to the U.S. nuclear industrys standardization policies.

Measuring standardization: An application to the American and French nuclear power industries

Abstract This paper discusses the lack of standardization in the U.S. nuclear industry in contrast to the French nuclear industry. We address the problem of measuring the degree of standardization in an industry whose production facilities are as complex and multi-faceted as nuclear power stations. We propose performance-oriented measures based on operating downtime and the probability of shutting down associated with reactor subsystems. We then apply these measures to show the different paths followed by the U.S. and French nuclear power industries.

Utilization and service: Decomposing nuclear reactor capacity factors☆

Statistical analyses of electricity generation productivity have focused on the capacity factor, i.e., the ratio of realized to potential output. Here, the capacity factor is decomposed into the capacity utilization rate (output when the reactor is operating) and the service factor (the percent of operating time). Elasticities of capacity factor, utilization rate, service factor, and the forced outage rate with respect to reactor size and age are estimated for fuel cycles of four reactor manufacturers, controlling for changes in the industry after the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979. While the service factor decreases with size for all reactor makes, the increase in the capacity utilization rate yields a positive relationship between size and the capacity factor for boiling water reactors. Age has no consistent influence. Only Babcock & Wilcox (the manufacturer of TMI) reactors experienced a significant decrease in productivity after 1979.

Risk and reactor safety systems adoption

Abstract How do firms react to the risk of accidents that disable their industrial plant? We examine this question by modeling the electric utilitys decision to install reactor safety systems. The optimal adoption time is a function of the probability of a serious accident, the cost of the safety system, potential damages, and insurance premiums. We apply an econometric version of our model to the empirical evidence regarding implementation of a computer graphics warning system for nuclear reactors. We find that (1) firms that operate multiple reactors at one site, have higher equipment failures, or have higher discount rates, were quicker to adopt the safety system; (2) owners of larger plants were slower to adopt; and (3) the size of the population surrounding the plant, the state regulatory climate in which the reactor was operating, and the value of the initial plant investment had no influence on the speed of adoption.

Transaction costs, regulation, and subcontracting at nuclear power plants

Abstract Monitoring problems, firm-specific assets, and regulation influence the relative costs in a firms make-or-buy decision. At nuclear power plants, legal limits on radiation exposure are thought to be a significant factor in determining which tasks to subcontract. In an examination of 30 tasks at nuclear power plants from 1978 to 1986, contract employees are more often hired for tasks with higher radiation exposure, where monitoring is difficult, and where firm-specific assets are important.

Market Power in Uranium Enrichment

Four firms dominate the international uranium enrichment market. Simultaneously, the nations that host enrichment facilities strongly discourage other nations from developing enrichment capacity, given its potential use in nuclear weapons production. Therefore, these four firms benefit from the exercise of national power to prevent entry into this market. This paper shows that these firms also benefit from increasing returns to scale. In similar national situations, this industry would be regulated or nationalized. This is because free markets do not necessarily lead to a socially optimal long-run equilibrium where the industry is necessarily concentrated, such that there is no proliferating entry, but is sufficiently diverse, so that no one national group can dictate prices, contract terms, or non-proliferation policy. Therefore, some form of international regulation might be necessary to discourage enrichment technology proliferation and assure enrichment supply at reasonable prices.

Is nuclear power more competitive producing electricity or hydrogen

Steam methane reforming is the worlds dominant hydrogen production technology, using natural gas as both feedstock and fuel, but producing more than 9 kg of CO2 for each kilogram of H2. Natural gas prices between

MANAGING ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY SYSTEM DEPLOYMENT: AN OPTIMAL ALLOCATION BETWEEN R&D AND PROTOTYPE FUNDING

6 and

IAEA's DEEP in Carlsbad: co-producing energy and water in Southern California

8/GJ yield an average hydrogen production cost between

Safety at nuclear power plants: Economic incentives under the Price-Anderson Act and state regulatory commissions

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