Geoffroy Avard

Relationship between Diffuse CO2 Degassing and Volcanic Activity. Case Study of the Poás, Irazú, and Turrialba Volcanoes, Costa Rica

Active volcanoes exhibit diffuse gas emanations through the ground, the most abundant species of which is CO2. However, the relationship between diffuse degassing and volcanic activity is not often clear and some volcanoes may have low diffuse degassing levels despite having strong volcanic activity. The main goals of this study are to quantify diffuse CO2 degassing and determine whether patterns exist in relation to volcanic activity through the study of Turrialba, Poas and Irazu, three active volcanoes in Costa Rica which are at different stages of activity. Structural controls of spatial distribution of diffuse degassing were also investigated. Measurement campaigns were conducted using the accumulation chamber method coupled with 10 cm depth ground temperature sampling with the aim of estimating the total diffuse CO2 degassing budget. The total amount of CO2 emitted diffusely by each volcano is approximately 113 ± 46 t/d over ~ 0.705 km2 for Turrialba, 0.9 ± 0.5 t/d for Poas over ~ 0.734 km2, 3.8 ± 0.9 t/d over ~ 0.049 km2 for Irazus main crater, and 15 ± 12 t/d over 0.0059 km2 for Irazus north flank. Turrialba and Poas volcano diffuse degassing budget represent about 10\% of the whole gas output. Both volcanoes were in a transitional stage and the opening of new conduits may cause a loss in diffuse degassing and an increase of active degassing. Numerous diffuse degassing structures were also identified. One of which at Turrialba was closely associated with the collapse of a crater wall in 2014 during the initiation of a new period of heightened eruptive activity. Similar structures were also observed on the outer slopes of the west crater, suggesting strong alteration and perhaps destabilization of the upper outer cone. Irazus north flank is highly permeable and has experienced intense hydrothermal alteration.

Renewed Explosive Phreatomagmatic Activity at Poás Volcano, Costa Rica in April 2017

Phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions at volcanoes often present no short term precursory activity, making them a challenge to forecast. Poás volcano, Costa Rica, exhibits cyclic activity with phreatic and some phreatomagmatic eruptions separated by times of quiescence. The latest phreatomagmatic stage began in March 2017 with increases in crater lake temperatures, SO2 flux, and the rate of seismicity, as well as accelerated ground inflation near the active crater. On 23 April 2017 at 04:12 UTC, a large phreatomagmatic eruption occurred at Poás, sending blocks up to 1 m in length to distances >1 km. Hindsight analysis revealed a precursory seismic sequence from 25 March to 22 April of similar seismic events (in terms of their frequency and waveform characteristics). Fourteen families of similar seismic events (containing ≥10 events per family) were identified during this precursory sequence, totaling over 1,300 events. An acceleration within the dominant family of LF (low frequency) waveforms was identified, suggesting that a forecast for the onset of the eruption may have been possible using the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). However, no confidence could be placed in the forecast generated, reiterating that not all accelerating trends are suitable for analysis using the FFM, in particular in conjunction with a least-squares linear regression. Our residual analysis further supports the concept that using a least-squares linear regression analysis is not appropriate with this dataset, and allows us to eliminate commonly used forecasting parameters for this scenario. However, the identification of different families of similar seismicity allows us to determine that magmatic fluid on its way to the surface initially became stalled beneath a chilled margin or hydrothermal seal, before catastrophically failing in a large phreatomagmatic eruption. Additionally, we note that 24 h prior to the large phreatomagmatic eruption, all LF families became inactive, which could have been falsely interpreted in real time as the waning of activity. Our results suggest that identifying families of seismicity offers unique opportunities to better understand ongoing processes at depth, and to challenge conventional forecasting techniques.