Georg Kaser

A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009

Melting Away We assume the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are the main drivers of global sea-level rise, but how large is the contribution from other sources of glacial ice? Gardner et al. (p. 852) synthesize data from glacialogical inventories to find that glaciers in the Arctic, Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia contribute approximately as much melt water as the ice sheets themselves: 260 billion tons per year between 2003 and 2009, accounting for about 30% of the observed sea-level rise during that period. The contribution of glaciers to sea level rise is nearly as much as that of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets combined. Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world’s oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003–2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was –259 ± 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 ± 13% of the observed sea level rise.

Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes

Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin, we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins.

Mass balance of glaciers and ice caps: Consensus estimates for 1961–2004

[1] Working with comprehensive collections of directly-measured data on the annual mass balance of glaciers other than the two ice sheets, we combine independent analyses to show that there is broad agreement on the evolution of global mass balance since 1960. Mass balance was slightly below zero around 1970 and has been growing more negative since then. Excluding peripheral ice bodies in Greenland and Antarctica, global average specific balance for 1961-1990 was -219 ± 112 kg m -2 a -1 , representing 0.33±0.17 mm SLE (sea-level equivalent) a -1 . For 2001-2004, the figures are -510 ± 101 kg m -2 a -1 and 0.77±0.15 mm SLE a -1 . Including the smaller Greenland and Antarctic glaciers, global total balance becomes 0.38 ± 0.19 mm SLE a -1 for 1961-1990 and 0.98 ± 0.19 mm SLE a -1 for 2001-2004. For 1991-2004 the glacier contribution, 0.77 ± 0.26 mm SLE a -1 , is 20-30% of a recent estimate of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm a -1 of total sea-level rise for 1993-2005. While our error estimates are not rigorous, we believe them to be liberal as far as they go, but we also discuss several unquantified biases of which any may prove to be significant.

A review of the modern fluctuations of tropical glaciers

Abstract The tropical climate is characterized by a homogeneous atmosphere without frontal activity, a lack of thermal seasonality, and by one to two differently pronounced precipitation seasons. Consequently, tropical climate has a characteristic impact on tropical glaciers, with glacier–climate interactions different from those of the mid- and high-latitudes. The glaciers of tropical South America, Africa and New Guinea had a general maximum extent during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and have receded since the second half of the 19th century. Since then the fluctuations have been differently pronounced in different regions, but their general behaviour has been largely synchronous. The retreat from the LIA extent slowed on many glaciers at the beginning of the 20th century, some of them even readvanced almost to the LIA extent. The 1930s and 1940s brought a marked loss of ice masses and were followed by a moderate retreat. Around 1970 the recession generally slowed. Some glaciers even advanced. The last decade was again characterized by a pronounced glacier recession on all tropical mountains which are under observation. The modern fluctuations of tropical glaciers are also quite synchronous to those of the glaciers in the mid-latitudes. A reduction in air humidity with all the consequent changes in energy and mass balance is suggested to be a major reason for the general recession of tropical glaciers since the end of LIA. The rise in air temperature explains only part of the glacier recession. The accelerated recession since the 1980s is most probably caused by increased air temperature and increased air humidity. Nevertheless, the knowledge of tropical glaciers is still scarce compared to those of the mid and high latitudes. This contribution reviews present knowledge of the fluctuations of tropical glaciers.

Glacier-climate interaction at low latitudes

In the low latitudes there is an absence of major thermal seasonality, yet there are three different climate regimes related to global circulation patterns and their seasonal oscillation: the humid inner tropics, the dry subtropics and, intermediate between these two, the outer tropics. For the respective glacier regimes the vertical profiles of specific mass balance (VBPs) are modeled considering vertical gradients of accumulation, air temperature and albedo, the duration of the ablation period and a factor for the ratio between melting and sublimation. The model is first calibrated with data from Hintereisferner, Austrian Alps, and is then applied to tropical conditions. The simulated VBP matches well the measured profiles from Irian jaya and Mount Kenya. Due to lack of field evidence, the subtropical VBP cannot be verified directly. However, application of the respective model versions separately to the humid and dry seasons of the outer-tropical Glaciar Uruashraju, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, provides reasonable results. Glaciers in the humid inner tropics are considered to be most sensitive to variations in air temperature, while dry subtropical glaciers are most sensitive to changes in air humidity. The two seasons of the outer tropics have to be viewed from these different perspectives.

The impact of glaciers on the runoff and the reconstruction of mass balance history from hydrological data in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Perú

A 41 years series of runoff and precipitation data from the Peruvian Cordillera Blanca demonstrates the high hygric seasonality in this tropical high mountain range. In this area, glaciers have a crucial impact on runoff which is of essential importance for the highly populated and cultivated valley of the Callejon de Huaylas particularly during the dry season. Whereas the mid latitudes glacier runoff amplifies the seasonal variation of runoff, the effect of glaciers in the low latitudes is a smoothing one. It decreases clearly with the decreasing degree of glaciation. In addition, particular circumstances of this tropical environment allow the reconstruction of a glacier mass balance history from the hydrological data for the second half of the 20th century. It shows a high synchronicity with the global trend of periods with glacier mass loss and gain. Comparison with length variations of three individual glaciers indicate a rather fast reaction of these glaciers to changes in mass balance. Although the mass balance variations show some differences among the individual catchment basins, the over all trend is uniform. A general positive correlation of mass balance variations with SOI is obvious but not regular.

Energy balance and runoff seasonality of a Bolivian glacier

Abstract The runoff of Zongo Glacier (Bolivia, 16°S) shows an appreciable seasonal variability, with low discharges in the dry season (May to August) and high values in the humid season (October to March). Incoming radiation, temperature and precipitation are poorly correlated with discharge and cannot explain the hydrological seasonality and the glaciers response to climate variability in the Tropical Andes. Since 1996, energy balance measurements have been carried out in the vicinity of the mean equilibrium line (5150 m a.s.l.) on Zongo Glacier (2.1 km 2 ). Comparisons are made with proglacial stream discharges recorded at the main hydrometric station. Each component of the energy balance (net radiation, turbulent heat fluxes, heat transfer into the ice and heat supplied by precipitation) is derived separately from the measurements, and the variability throughout the year is evaluated. Radiation and turbulent fluxes dominate the surface energy balance. Sensible heat flux is small and does not show a significant seasonal change. Latent heat flux is highly variable with low values during the accumulation season and high values during the dry period. This high sublimation loss during the dry season causes well-developed penitents at the glacier surface. In conclusion, incoming energy throughout the year is constant, with no large variations, and humidity controls the balance of this energy between sublimation and melting. During the accumulation season, sublimation is reduced because of a low gradient of vapour pressure and the energy supplied by radiation is directly consumed by melting, explaining why discharge is high. During the dry period, a large part of the energy supplied by radiation is used to sublimate snow or ice and therefore, energy available for melting is low, which leads to low melt rates. Due to the important role of humidity, tropical glaciers are likely to be the climatic indicators the most sensitive to climatic changes like the greenhouse effect.

Tracking the source of glacier misinformation.

A recent News of the Week story on Himalayan glaciers (“No sign yet of Himalayan meltdown, Indian report finds,” P. Bagla, 13 November 2009, p. [924][1]) highlights how inadequately reviewed material makes its way into the public consciousness. One source, Working Group II (WG-II) of the

Quantifying Climate Change in the Tropical Midtroposphere over East Africa from Glacier Shrinkage on Kilimanjaro

Slope glaciers on Kilimanjaro (ca. 5000–6000 m MSL) reached their most recent maximum extent in the late nineteenth century (L19) and have receded since then. This study quantifies the climate signal behind the recession of Kersten Glacier, which generates information on climate change in the tropical midtroposphere between L19 and present. Multiyear meteorological measurements at 5873 m MSL serve to force and verify a spatially distributed model of the glacier’s mass balance (the most direct link between glacier behavior and atmospheric forcing). At present the glacier is losing mass (522 6 105 kg m 22 yr 21 ), terminates at 5100 m, and the interannual variability of mass and energy budgets largely reflects variability in atmospheric moisture. Backward modeling of the L19 steady-state glacier extent (down to 4500 m) reveals higher precipitation (1160 to 1240 mm yr 21 ), higher air humidity, and increased fractional cloud cover in L19 but no significant changes in local air temperature, air pressure, and wind speed. The atmosphere in the simulated L19 climate transfers more energy to the glacier surface through atmospheric longwave radiation and turbulent heat—but this is almost entirely balanced by the decrease in absorbed solar radiation (due to both increased cloudiness and higher surface albedo). Thus, the energy-driven mass loss per unit area (sublimation plus meltwater runoff) was not appreciably different from today. Higher L19 precipitation rates therefore dominated the mass budget and produced a larger glacier extent in the past.

End of the Little Ice Age in the Alps forced by industrial black carbon.

Significance The end of the Little Ice Age in the European Alps has long been a paradox to glaciology and climatology. Glaciers in the Alps began to retreat abruptly in the mid-19th century, but reconstructions of temperature and precipitation indicate that glaciers should have instead advanced into the 20th century. We observe that industrial black carbon in snow began to increase markedly in the mid-19th century and show with simulations that the associated increases in absorbed sunlight by black carbon in snow and snowmelt were of sufficient magnitude to cause this scale of glacier retreat. This hypothesis offers a physically based explanation for the glacier retreat that maintains consistency with the temperature and precipitation reconstructions. Glaciers in the European Alps began to retreat abruptly from their mid-19th century maximum, marking what appeared to be the end of the Little Ice Age. Alpine temperature and precipitation records suggest that glaciers should instead have continued to grow until circa 1910. Radiative forcing by increasing deposition of industrial black carbon to snow may represent the driver of the abrupt glacier retreats in the Alps that began in the mid-19th century. Ice cores indicate that black carbon concentrations increased abruptly in the mid-19th century and largely continued to increase into the 20th century, consistent with known increases in black carbon emissions from the industrialization of Western Europe. Inferred annual surface radiative forcings increased stepwise to 13–17 W⋅m−2 between 1850 and 1880, and to 9–22 W⋅m−2 in the early 1900s, with snowmelt season (April/May/June) forcings reaching greater than 35 W⋅m−2 by the early 1900s. These snowmelt season radiative forcings would have resulted in additional annual snow melting of as much as 0.9 m water equivalent across the melt season. Simulations of glacier mass balances with radiative forcing-equivalent changes in atmospheric temperatures result in conservative estimates of accumulating negative mass balances of magnitude −15 m water equivalent by 1900 and −30 m water equivalent by 1930, magnitudes and timing consistent with the observed retreat. These results suggest a possible physical explanation for the abrupt retreat of glaciers in the Alps in the mid-19th century that is consistent with existing temperature and precipitation records and reconstructions.