George A Mackenzie

Pension Regimes and Saving

Public pension systems around the world have been criticized in recent years for some serious flaws, including the excessive burden they impose on the public finances and their depressing impact on saving rates. This study analyzes the impact of pension systems and pension reform on saving, paying particular attention to the impact of the introduction of defined-contribution plans like that of Chile. It also surveys the literature on the impact of pension regimes on saving, discusses some recent reforms, and addresses the role of private pension plans.

Are All Summary Indicators of the Stance of Fiscal Policy Misleading

Two recent criticisms of summary fiscal indicators are appraised: first, that they and the conventionally measured public sector balances from which they are derived are not sufficiently broadly defined; second, that they are meaningless because they do not reflect changes in the distribution of wealth between generations. The paper concludes that the defects of summary fiscal indicators have been exaggerated. It is not feasible to include all changes in public sector net worth in the deficit, and the existence of liquidity constraints and aversion to indebtedness imply that conventionally measured public sector deficits are not irrelevant.

The composition of fiscal adjustment and growth : lessons from fiscal reforms in eight economies

This study examines the composition of fiscal adjustment - tax and expenditure policies and administrative procedures, and some aspects of public enterprise reform - in a sample of eight countries (Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, India, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, and Thailand) during a period of fiscal reform (usually 1978-93), to determine whether and to what extent the fiscal reforms fostered growth during the adjustment period.

Can The Private Annuity Market Provide Secure Retirement Income

Annuity premiums are often assumed to be constant, although they can be expected to vary with the yield curve. Variations in premiums will become an important public policy issue as defined-contribution (DC) pension plans play an increasingly prominent role in providing retirement income. As DC plan holders retire, many will annuitize at least a part of their account balances. In the absence of current data on annuity prices, the paper relies on U.S. Treasury interest rate data to simulate the impact of interest rate variation on annuity premiums. For a spectrum of feasible interest rates, the variation in retirement income is not negligible.

The Role of Private Sector Annuities Markets in an Individual Accounts Reform of a Public Pension Plan

Pension reforms that establish individual accounts will diminish the relative importance of the traditional state pension while creating a significant role for individual accounts in providing income for retirement. This paper surveys the policy issues this new role entails. It offers general advice to countries considering such issues as the restrictions to be placed on the timing, extent, and form of withdrawals from individual accounts and the need for mandatory annuitization (conversion into annuities) of accumulated account balances. The paper also considers the role that private annuity markets should play and related regulatory, social safety net, tax, and administrative questions.

Pension Reform and the Fiscal Policy Stance

The increased budget deficit caused by the privatization of a public pension plan does not imply a relaxation of the stance of fiscal policy. The reforms impact on the fiscal stance and national saving depends primarily on its effect on the sum of explicit and implicit public debt and on the post-reform payroll tax and private system contribution rates. However, the precise impact of reform also depends on such influences as the relationship between the rates of interest on implicit and explicit public debt. There may be circumstances in which pension privatization, if not offset by fiscal consolidation, will loosen the fiscal stance.

Social Security Issues in Developing Countries: The Latin American Experience

The major economic, financial, and administrative issues that confront social security systems in Latin America are surveyed. The larger systems have contributed substantially to public sector financial disequilibria. Expenditures of the systems with more limited coverage could increase dramatically as the pension plan matures, life expectancy increases, and coverage is broadened, but the narrow revenue base will force a trade-off between broader coverage and the generosity of benefits. Most plans are pay-as-you-go, and the case for full or partial funding is not found to be compelling. The inflationary environment can have a substantial effect on the financial balance, even under full indexation.