George A. Zombanakis

The cyprus puzzle and the greek - turkish arms race: forecasting developments using genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps

The scope of this paper is to forecast the extent to which a settlement of the Cyprus issue may be possible given the decisions taken during the Copenhagen EU summit. It aims, in addition, at investigating the possibilities of improvement in Greek-Turkish relations which may lead, in turn, to reducing the arms race between the two countries. The paper uses a Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Map algorithm to consider a number of scenarios examining the possible reactions of all sides involved in the Cyprus issue, namely Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, the Turkish-Cypriot community and the international environment. All simulation exercises suggest that the Greek and the Cypriot side should not necessarily rely on the decisions taken during the Copenhagen summit conference. The forecasts point out, in addition, that the optimism of the Greek government concerning the outlook of its relations with Turkey, and a subsequent reduction of the arms race against it, is far from being justified.

FINANCIAL VERSUS HUMAN RESOURCES IN THE GREEK–TURKISH ARMS RACE 10 YEARS ON: A FORECASTING INVESTIGATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

This paper looks into the Greek–Turkish arms race a decade after an earlier contribution to the issue that relied heavily on artificial neural networks. The time period between the two papers contributes to the reliability of the results derived, not just by increasing the number of observations, but also mainly by incorporating the progress made in the realm of artificial intelligence. The focus on the case of both countries unlike the paper mentioned above that dealt with just the Greek side provides ample room for comparative purposes regarding the determinants of defense expenditure on both sides. The results derived in terms of input significance estimation support the findings of the earlier research as indicated above, pointing to the leading role of the demographic preponderance of Turkey over Greece. The paper also points to the fact that 10 years later, Turkey continues to set the arms race rules against its rival by determining the defense expenditure of Greece, whereas the role of the latter in affecting the military spending of Turkey is non‐existent.

Optimization in genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps supporting decision-making: the limit cycle case

This paper proposes an extension of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps (GEFCMs) aiming at increasing their reliability by overcoming its weakness appearing in cases of a limit cycle behavior. FCMs use notions borrowed from artificial intelligence and neural networks to combine concepts and causal relationships, aimed at creating dynamic models that describe a given cognitive setting. The activation level of the nodes participating in an FCM model can be calculated using specific updating equations in a series of iterations.

Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race

The aim of this paper is to indicate the extent to which the arms race against Turkey, in which Greece and Cyprus have been entangled, imposes a defence expenditure burden that is tough for the two allies to bear. To do so we have resorted to evaluating the optimal military expenditure for the two countries, allied in the context of the Integrated Defence Doctrine, which is compatible with the constraints imposed by the resources of their economies. All experiments and scenarios examined lead to the conclusion that the current defence burden of the two allies seems to be driving their economies beyond capacity limits. The fact remains, however, that under the circumstances, a one-sided disarmament policy like the one currently followed by Greece, is a risky choice given that the long-term armament programmes pursued by Turkey, whose role in this arms race has been proven as leading, leave very small room to the Greek and Cypriot sides to reduce their own defence expenditure.

The Arms Race between Greece and Turkey: Commenting on a Major Unresolved Issue

This paper focuses on the controversy that prevails concerning the extent to which an arms race is going on between Greece and Turkey. An examination of the recent contributions on this major issue beginning the year 2000 onwards suggests that the pronounced discrepancies among the conclusions drawn in these papers may be attributed to two major reasons among others: the effectiveness of the techniques employed, as well as the inadequacy of certain policy recipes to treat actual defense incidents.

In search of a warning strategy against exchange-rate attacks: Forecasting tactics using artificial neural networks

“Heart attacks and devaluations are not predictable and, certainly, are never preannounced”. (The usual remark made by government spokesmen shortly after a domestic currency devaluation has taken place.)

Earning a Peace Dividend in a Crisis Environment: The Greek Case

Abstract In this paper we attempt to assess the extent to which conversion policies involving the shift of resources from the defence to the non-defence sector may entail some form of peace dividend for the economy of Greece. The issue has become one of increasing importance during the past few years during which the demand for growth-supporting policies has been a top priority requirement as an antidote to the recession. The paper employs a VAR model in order to investigate the interactions among the growth rate of gross domestic product and alternative measures of defence expenditure. We find that defence spending and more so, expenditure on defence equipment, under the present circumstances in which the bulk of the procurement represents import payments is not related in any form of Granger-causal relationship with the economic growth of Greece. Our results point to the fact that there can be no possibility of a peace dividend under the circumstances prevailing, unless defence procurement policies shift to an import – substitution strategy.

An alliance between Cyprus and Greece: assessing its partners’ relative security contribution

The issue that this paper tackles is the assessment of the relative security benefits that Cyprus and Greece derive in the context of their cooperation on defence matters. This form of cooperation, known as the ‘Integrated Defence Space Doctrine’, aims at defending their interests in the Aegean Sea and the broader East Mediterranean theatre. The paper relies heavily on earlier research on this topic, which deals with the Greek–Cypriot alliance facing an arms race against Turkey, and uses a coefficient especially designed to assess the optimal levels of security and the associated defence expenditure of the two allies. A comparison of the relative security coefficient values for the two allies suggests that the security benefit that Greece derives thanks to its alliance with Cyprus exceeds the corresponding Cypriot benefit by far. Given the importance assigned to human resources by this index, in conjunction with the demographic problems of Greece, this conclusion justifies the recent Greek defence policy revision, emphasizing quality, capital equipment and flexibility of forces. This revision aims at satisfying the security requirements of the alliance and the increasing demands of an arms race against Turkey.

Searching for the Optimal Defence Expenditure

This paper aims at evaluating the extent to which the defence expenditure of Greece and Cyprus given their arms race against Turkey in the context of the Integrated Defence Doctrine policy constitutes a burden feasible to bear. The evaluation takes place using an Optimal Control solution constrained by a model emphasising on Greek and Cypriot defence expenditure. Various experiments and scenarios have been tested leading to the general conclusion that the defence expenditure in both allied countries seems to be driving their economies beyond capacity limits. This, however, by no means justifies the one sided disarmament policy currently followed by Greece, since the long-term armament programmes pursued by Turkey, the role of which in this arms race has been proven as leading, leave very small room to the Greek and Cypriot sides to reduce their defence expenditures.