George Adu

Determinants of economic growth in Ghana: parametric and nonparametric investigations

This paper’s goal was to look for robust evidence on the determinants of economic growth by complementing the usual parametric time series analysis with nonparametric local linear kernel regression. The evidence from the two seemingly competing approaches (parametric versus nonparametric), complemented each other in this paper. However, the nonparametric model provided further evidence on the non-linearity of the relationship between real GDP on the one hand and labor force and terms of trade on the other. In sum we have robust evidence that the labor force, investment rate, financial development, terms of trade and trade openness are key drivers of growth in Ghana. Inflation has been found not to be a robust determinant of long run economic growth in Ghana. With the exception of inflation and trade openness, all the other regressors have positive impact on growth from both the parametric and nonparametric models.

What Drives Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa?

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the driving forces behind structural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa, and to further access the role of structural reforms in accounting for cross-country differences in transformation. Evidence from this paper reveals that country specific fundamentals, institutions and policy reforms as well as governance and fiscal reforms are the key drivers of transformation in the region. A set of policy strategies is proposed to engender sustained transformation and development in the region.

Population Health and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

The article investigates the extent to which the health of the population affects the economic performance using panel data for 30 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1970–2010. Using a theoretical model based on an augmented Solow growth model, the authors estimate the relationship between population health capital and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel cointegration econometric strategy. They find that the health status of the population has not significantly driven economic performance. Accounting for the effect of HIV/AIDS, however, resulted in a significant negative effect of population health on economic growth. Furthermore, the obverse seems rather plausibly the case, as economic growth significantly increases life expectancy in the region.

Natural resource revenues and public investment in resource-rich economies in sub-Saharan Africa

The general policy prescription for resource-rich countries is that, for sustainable consumption, a greater percentage of the windfall from resource rents should be channelled into accumulating for ...

The nexus between output fluctuations and fiscal deficits: empirical evidence on Ghana

Ghana is presently confronted with persistent budget deficits and burgeoning public debt in excess of 52% of GDP and frequent fluctuations in total output below its long-run trend. This is of great concern which has issues for the countrys long term growth and debt sustainability. Though the persistent deficit is a common knowledge, the driving force behind the deficit has remained quite elusive. The paper sets out to find the causal relationship between the recurrent budget deficit and output fluctuations in Ghana. With cyclical component of annual real GDP and fiscal deficit to GDP ratio time series data from 1960-2012, and subject to various econometric techniques and three estimation methods (OLS, SUR and VAR), the paper finds a bi-directional causal relationship between fluctuations in output and fiscal deficits to GDP ratio.