George Avelino

Articulações intrapartidárias e desempenho eleitoral no Brasil

Do Brazils political parties matter in elections? The article focuses on this problem by analyzing whether a mayors election influences his partys electoral performance in the same city. A regression discontinuity model (RDM) was used to identify the causal effect of mayors on their partys electoral performance in elections to National and State Deputies. The findings suggest that a mayors election (even by a difference of only 1%) should increase the votes for the same party in the elections to both National and State Deputy. This result is interpreted as evidence of intra-partisan linkage, whereby mayors act systematically to help elect National and State Deputies from their own parties.

Governance in managing public health resources in Brazilian municipalities.

This study contributes to the health governance discussion by presenting a new data set that allows for comparisons of the management of health resources among Brazilian municipalities. Research on Brazil is particularly important as the provision of health services was decentralized in 1988 and since then municipalities have been given greater responsibilities for the management of fiscal resources for public health service provision. Based on detailed information on corruption practices (such as over-invoicing, illegal procurement and fake receipts) from audit reports of health programmes in 980 randomly selected Brazilian municipalities, this study deepens understanding of the relationship between health governance institutions and the incidence of corruption at the local level by exploring the extent to which horizontal and vertical accountabilities contribute to reducing the propensity of municipal government officials to divert public health resources for private gain. The results of our multiple regression analysis suggest that the experience of health municipal councils is correlated with reductions in the incidence of corruption in public health programmes. This impact is significant over time, with each additional year of health council experience reducing corruption incidence levels by 2.1% from baseline values. The findings reported in this study do not rely on the subjectivity of corruption measures which usually conflate the actual incidence of corruption with its perception by informants. Based on our results, we provide recommendations that can assist policy makers to reduce corruption.

A Concentração eleitoral nas eleições paulistas: medidas e aplicações

This article discusses indicators of electoral concentration published in the literature and proposes a new measurement, estimated for the elections to Members of the Brazilian National Congress from the State of Sao Paulo in the last five races (1994-2010). The resulting estimates show that the strategy of concentrating votes among the elected Representatives is less than expected according to the literature and that when the strategy is adopted, it tends to be more regional than local. Finally, the evolution in this indicator over time suggests that there are no clear trends in application of the strategy.

A Concentração Eleitoral no Brasil (1994-2014)

Geographical Scattering of Votes in Brazilian Elections (1994-2014) The following article seeks to expand on a new indicator of the geographical scattering of votes presented by Avelino, Biderman and Silva in an article published in DADOS Journal in 2011, extending its use to encompass candidates in Brazilian elections held from 1994 to 2014. The results systematically demonstrate that support for successful candidates was more scattered than that for defeated candidates, with the article’s most original feature lying in the fact that such a finding contradicts theories assuming the predominance of votes for individuals in proportional Brazilian elections.