George Bittlingmayer

What Does the Corporate Bond Market Know

Do related markets reflect new information simultaneously? For high-yield bonds, a large abnormal price decline in a corporations most liquid bond over a month is followed by an average abnormal stock price decline of −1.42%. This effect is larger for stocks that have increased in value and for volatile stocks. It is also larger for bonds with high coupons and shorter maturities. These results support the view that high-yield corporate bonds have an informational edge when news is negative and stock returns are noisy, and add to the growing literature on the substantial lags in price discovery between related markets.

''Open access:'' the ideal and the real

Abstract “Open access” would allow ISPs to use a cable operators broadband connection under regulated terms and conditions. Advocates stress the desirability of an “end-to-end” architecture for the Internet and the danger that cable operators will use their control over the last mile to limit consumer choice and stifle innovation. Opponents contend that wholesale price controls and other regulatory burdens under what they term “forced access” would in fact slow down the deployment of broadband, stifle innovation and harm consumers. The fears of “open access” advocates seem largely speculative at this point. Evidence from related policies also favors the opponents. “Closed” cable systems are beating their “open” DSL competitors in the market place; analogous regulation of cable TV did not serve consumers well; and forced “unbundling” of local service has been controversial and largely ineffective. In addition, relevant technology stocks declined in price with political and legal victories for “open access” and increased when it suffered setbacks.

What Does the Bond Market Know

Do smaller, less liquid markets help predict prices in more liquid related markets? Using TRACE data for 2002-08 for 1,167 bonds issued by 442 firms, we find that a decline of 10% over three months of a firm’s bonds is associated with an ensuing decline of 3% to 6% in its stock. Bond price increases do not have a similar effect. Possible explanations for the lead of bond prices over stocks include the focus of bond analysts on negative news, the use of credit-default swaps as venues for informed trading, and the incomplete adjustment of stock prices to new information.