George D. Thurston

Cardiovascular Mortality and Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution Epidemiological Evidence of General Pathophysiological Pathways of Disease

Background—Epidemiologic studies have linked long-term exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution (PM) to broad cause-of-death mortality. Associations with specific cardiopulmonary diseases might be useful in exploring potential mechanistic pathways linking exposure and mortality. Methods and Results—General pathophysiological pathways linking long-term PM exposure with mortality and expected patterns of PM mortality with specific causes of death were proposed a priori. Vital status, risk factor, and cause-of-death data, collected by the American Cancer Society as part of the Cancer Prevention II study, were linked with air pollution data from United States metropolitan areas. Cox Proportional Hazard regression models were used to estimate PM-mortality associations with specific causes of death. Long-term PM exposures were most strongly associated with mortality attributable to ischemic heart disease, dysrhythmias, heart failure, and cardiac arrest. For these cardiovascular causes of death, a 10-&mgr;g/m3 elevation in fine PM was associated with 8% to 18% increases in mortality risk, with comparable or larger risks being observed for smokers relative to nonsmokers. Mortality attributable to respiratory disease had relatively weak associations. Conclusions—Fine particulate air pollution is a risk factor for cause-specific cardiovascular disease mortality via mechanisms that likely include pulmonary and systemic inflammation, accelerated atherosclerosis, and altered cardiac autonomic function. Although smoking is a much larger risk factor for cardiovascular disease mortality, exposure to fine PM imposes additional effects that seem to be at least additive to if not synergistic with smoking.

Spatial analysis of air pollution and mortality in Los Angeles.

Background: The assessment of air pollution exposure using only community average concentrations may lead to measurement error that lowers estimates of the health burden attributable to poor air quality. To test this hypothesis, we modeled the association between air pollution and mortality using small-area exposure measures in Los Angeles, California. Methods: Data on 22,905 subjects were extracted from the American Cancer Society cohort for the period 1982–2000 (5,856 deaths). Pollution exposures were interpolated from 23 fine particle (PM2.5) and 42 ozone (O3) fixed-site monitors. Proximity to expressways was tested as a measure of traffic pollution. We assessed associations in standard and spatial multilevel Cox regression models. Results: After controlling for 44 individual covariates, all-cause mortality had a relative risk (RR) of 1.17 (95% confidence interval = 1.05–1.30) for an increase of 10 &mgr;g/m3 PM2.5 and a RR of 1.11 (0.99–1.25) with maximal control for both individual and contextual confounders. The RRs for mortality resulting from ischemic heart disease and lung cancer deaths were elevated, in the range of 1.24–1.6, depending on the model used. These PM results were robust to adjustments for O3 and expressway exposure. Conclusion: Our results suggest the chronic health effects associated with within-city gradients in exposure to PM2.5 may be even larger than previously reported across metropolitan areas. We observed effects nearly 3 times greater than in models relying on comparisons between communities. We also found specificity in cause of death, with PM2.5 associated more strongly with ischemic heart disease than with cardiopulmonary or all-cause mortality.

Long-Term Ozone Exposure and Mortality

BACKGROUND Although many studies have linked elevations in tropospheric ozone to adverse health outcomes, the effect of long-term exposure to ozone on air pollution-related mortality remains uncertain. We examined the potential contribution of exposure to ozone to the risk of death from cardiopulmonary causes and specifically to death from respiratory causes. METHODS Data from the study cohort of the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II were correlated with air-pollution data from 96 metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. Data were analyzed from 448,850 subjects, with 118,777 deaths in an 18-year follow-up period. Data on daily maximum ozone concentrations were obtained from April 1 to September 30 for the years 1977 through 2000. Data on concentrations of fine particulate matter (particles that are < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter [PM(2.5)]) were obtained for the years 1999 and 2000. Associations between ozone concentrations and the risk of death were evaluated with the use of standard and multilevel Cox regression models. RESULTS In single-pollutant models, increased concentrations of either PM(2.5) or ozone were significantly associated with an increased risk of death from cardiopulmonary causes. In two-pollutant models, PM(2.5) was associated with the risk of death from cardiovascular causes, whereas ozone was associated with the risk of death from respiratory causes. The estimated relative risk of death from respiratory causes that was associated with an increment in ozone concentration of 10 ppb was 1.040 (95% confidence interval, 1.010 to 1.067). The association of ozone with the risk of death from respiratory causes was insensitive to adjustment for confounders and to the type of statistical model used. CONCLUSIONS In this large study, we were not able to detect an effect of ozone on the risk of death from cardiovascular causes when the concentration of PM(2.5) was taken into account. We did, however, demonstrate a significant increase in the risk of death from respiratory causes in association with an increase in ozone concentration.

Exposure assessment for estimation of the global burden of disease attributable to outdoor air pollution.

Ambient air pollution is associated with numerous adverse health impacts. Previous assessments of global attributable disease burden have been limited to urban areas or by coarse spatial resolution of concentration estimates. Recent developments in remote sensing, global chemical-transport models, and improvements in coverage of surface measurements facilitate virtually complete spatially resolved global air pollutant concentration estimates. We combined these data to generate global estimates of long-term average ambient concentrations of fine particles (PM(2.5)) and ozone at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for 1990 and 2005. In 2005, 89% of the worlds population lived in areas where the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m(3) PM(2.5) (annual average) was exceeded. Globally, 32% of the population lived in areas exceeding the WHO Level 1 Interim Target of 35 μg/m(3), driven by high proportions in East (76%) and South (26%) Asia. The highest seasonal ozone levels were found in North and Latin America, Europe, South and East Asia, and parts of Africa. Between 1990 and 2005 a 6% increase in global population-weighted PM(2.5) and a 1% decrease in global population-weighted ozone concentrations was apparent, highlighted by increased concentrations in East, South, and Southeast Asia and decreases in North America and Europe. Combined with spatially resolved population distributions, these estimates expand the evaluation of the global health burden associated with outdoor air pollution.

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: health implications of short-lived greenhouse pollutants

In this report we review the health effects of three short-lived greenhouse pollutants-black carbon, ozone, and sulphates. We undertook new meta-analyses of existing time-series studies and an analysis of a cohort of 352,000 people in 66 US cities during 18 years of follow-up. This cohort study provides estimates of mortality effects from long-term exposure to elemental carbon, an indicator of black carbon mass, and evidence that ozone exerts an independent risk of mortality. Associations among these pollutants make drawing conclusions about their individual health effects difficult at present, but sulphate seems to have the most robust effects in multiple-pollutant models. Generally, the toxicology of the pure compounds and their epidemiology diverge because atmospheric black carbon, ozone, and sulphate are associated and could interact with related toxic species. Although sulphate is a cooling agent, black carbon and ozone could together exert nearly half as much global warming as carbon dioxide. The complexity of these health and climate effects needs to be recognised in mitigation policies.

PM source apportionment and health effects: 1. Intercomparison of source apportionment results

During the past three decades, receptor models have been used to identify and apportion ambient concentrations to sources. A number of groups are employing these methods to provide input into air quality management planning. A workshop has explored the use of resolved source contributions in health effects models. Multiple groups have analyzed particulate composition data sets from Washington, DC and Phoenix, AZ. Similar source profiles were extracted from these data sets by the investigators using different factor analysis methods. There was good agreement among the major resolved source types. Crustal (soil), sulfate, oil, and salt were the sources that were most unambiguously identified (generally highest correlation across the sites). Traffic and vegetative burning showed considerable variability among the results with variability in the ability of the methods to partition the motor vehicle contributions between gasoline and diesel vehicles. However, if the total motor vehicle contributions are estimated, good correspondence was obtained among the results. The source impacts were especially similar across various analyses for the larger mass contributors (e.g., in Washington, secondary sulfate SE=7% and 11% for traffic; in Phoenix, secondary sulfate SE=17% and 7% for traffic). Especially important for time-series health effects assessment, the source-specific impacts were found to be highly correlated across analysis methods/researchers for the major components (e.g., mean analysis to analysis correlation, r>0.9 for traffic and secondary sulfates in Phoenix and for traffic and secondary nitrates in Washington. The sulfate mean r value is >0.75 in Washington.). Overall, although these intercomparisons suggest areas where further research is needed (e.g., better division of traffic emissions between diesel and gasoline vehicles), they provide support the contention that PM2.5 mass source apportionment results are consistent across users and methods, and that todays source apportionment methods are robust enough for application to PM2.5 health effects assessments.

Fine particulate matter constituents associated with cardiovascular hospitalizations and mortality in New York City.

Background Recent time-series studies have indicated that both cardiovascular disease (CVD)mortality and hospitalizations are associated with particulate matter (PM). However, seasonal patterns of PM associations with these outcomes are not consistent, and PM components responsible for these associations have not been determined. We investigated this issue in New York City (NYC), where PM originates from regional and local combustion sources. Objective In this study, we examined the role of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and its key chemical components on both CVD hospitalizations and on mortality in NYC. Methods We analyzed daily deaths and emergency hospitalizations for CVDs among persons ≥ 40 years of age for associations with PM2.5, its chemical components, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide, and sulfur dioxide for the years 2000–2006 using a Poisson time-series model adjusting for temporal and seasonal trends, temperature effects, and day of the week. We estimated excess risks per interquartile-range increases at lags 0 through 3 days for warm (April through September) and cold (October through March) seasons. Results The CVD mortality series exhibit strong seasonal trends, whereas the CVD hospitalization series show a strong day-of-week pattern. These outcome series were not correlated with each other but were individually associated with a number of PM2.5 chemical components from regional and local sources, each with different seasonal patterns and lags. Coal-combustion–related components (e.g., selenium) were associated with CVD mortality in summer and CVD hospitalizations in winter, whereas elemental carbon and NO2 showed associations with these outcomes in both seasons. Conclusion Local combustion sources, including traffic and residual oil burning, may play a year-round role in the associations between air pollution and CVD outcomes, but transported aerosols may explain the seasonal variation in associations shown by PM2.5 mass.

Spatial Analysis of Air Pollution and Mortality in California

RATIONALE Although substantial scientific evidence suggests that chronic exposure to ambient air pollution contributes to premature mortality, uncertainties exist in the size and consistency of this association. Uncertainty may arise from inaccurate exposure assessment. OBJECTIVES To assess the associations of three types of air pollutants (fine particulate matter, ozone [O3], and nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) with the risk of mortality in a large cohort of California adults using individualized exposure assessments. METHODS For fine particulate matter and NO2, we used land use regression models to derive predicted individualized exposure at the home address. For O3, we estimated exposure with an inverse distance weighting interpolation. Standard and multilevel Cox survival models were used to assess the association between air pollution and mortality. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Data for 73,711 subjects who resided in California were abstracted from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention II Study cohort, with baseline ascertainment of individual characteristics in 1982 and follow-up of vital status through to 2000. Exposure data were derived from government monitors. Exposure to fine particulate matter, O3, and NO2 was positively associated with ischemic heart disease mortality. NO2 (a marker for traffic pollution) and fine particulate matter were also associated with mortality from all causes combined. Only NO2 had significant positive association with lung cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS Using the first individualized exposure assignments in this important cohort, we found positive associations of fine particulate matter, O3, and NO2 with mortality. The positive associations of NO2 suggest that traffic pollution relates to premature death.

Time-series analysis of mortality effects of fine particulate matter components in Detroit and Seattle.

Background Recent toxicological and epidemiological studies have shown associations between particulate matter (PM) and adverse health effects, but which PM components are most influential is less well known. Objectives In this study, we used time-series analyses to determine the associations between daily fine PM [PM ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] concentrations and daily mortality in two U.S. cities—Seattle, Washington, and Detroit, Michigan. Methods We obtained daily PM2.5 filters for the years of 2002–2004 and analyzed trace elements using X-ray fluorescence and black carbon using light reflectance as a surrogate measure of elemental carbon. We used Poisson regression and distributed lag models to estimate excess deaths for all causes and for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases adjusting for time-varying covariates. We computed the excess risks for interquartile range increases of each pollutant at lags of 0 through 3 days for both warm and cold seasons. Results The cardiovascular and respiratory mortality series exhibited different source and seasonal patterns in each city. The PM2.5 components and gaseous pollutants associated with mortality in Detroit were most associated with warm season secondary aerosols and traffic markers. In Seattle, the component species most closely associated with mortality included those for cold season traffic and other combustion sources, such as residual oil and wood burning. Conclusions The effects of PM2.5 on daily mortality vary with source, season, and locale, consistent with the hypothesis that PM composition has an appreciable influence on the health effects attributable to PM.

Workgroup Report: Workshop on Source Apportionment of Particulate Matter Health Effects—Intercomparison of Results and Implications

Although the association between exposure to ambient fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and human mortality is well established, the most responsible particle types/sources are not yet certain. In May 2003, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Particulate Matter Centers Program sponsored the Workshop on the Source Apportionment of PM Health Effects. The goal was to evaluate the consistency of the various source apportionment methods in assessing source contributions to daily PM2.5 mass–mortality associations. Seven research institutions, using varying methods, participated in the estimation of source apportionments of PM2.5 mass samples collected in Washington, DC, and Phoenix, Arizona, USA. Apportionments were evaluated for their respective associations with mortality using Poisson regressions, allowing a comparative assessment of the extent to which variations in the apportionments contributed to variability in the source-specific mortality results. The various research groups generally identified the same major source types, each with similar elemental makeups. Intergroup correlation analyses indicated that soil-, sulfate-, residual oil-, and salt-associated mass were most unambiguously identified by various methods, whereas vegetative burning and traffic were less consistent. Aggregate source-specific mortality relative risk (RR) estimate confidence intervals overlapped each other, but the sulfate-related PM2.5 component was most consistently significant across analyses in these cities. Analyses indicated that source types were a significant predictor of RR, whereas apportionment group differences were not. Variations in the source apportionments added only some 15% to the mortality regression uncertainties. These results provide supportive evidence that existing PM2.5 source apportionment methods can be used to derive reliable insights into the source components that contribute to PM2.5 health effects.