George I. Treyz

The Dynamics of U.S. Internal Migration

In this paper the authors have theoretically derived a net migration equation and estimated it using time-series data for 51 regions over the period 1971-88. The results indicate that the dynamic response of net migration is stable and is significantly related to stock equilibrium changes induced by amenity differentials, relative employment opportunities, relative real wages, and industry composition. Moreover, the explicit linkage of stock equilibrium to stable dynamic flows in the model ensures that any stock disequilibrium will generate a finite migration response sufficient to attain a new stock equilibrium. The estimated parameters determine the speed at which net migration re-establishes stock equilibrium. Coauthors are Dan S. Rickman, Gary L. Hunt, and Michael J. Greenwood. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

The REMI Economic-Demographic Forecasting and Simulation Model:

This article presents the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Economic-Demographic Forecasting and Simulation (EDFS) model, which is used for regional forecasting and policy simulation in both the private and public sectors in the United States. The detailed structure of the model is presented. To illustrate the dynamic simulation properties of the model, results of two sample simulations for a REMI multi-area model of a region in Southern California are presented. Post-sample historical forecasts for all U.S. states are provided to evaluate the forecasting capabilities of the model.

A New Technique for the Construction of Non-Survey Regional Input-Output Models

A technique for creating regional input-output models based on national input-output technological coefficients is developed and tested. The Regional Purchase Coefficient (RPC), i.e., the proportion of regional demand fulfilled from regional production, is based on substitution between extra-and intra-regional sources in response to relative delivered costs. An RPC estimating equation is fitted using state economic and interstate transportation data. RPCs for all sectors are estimated for use in constructing 500-sector non-survey models for Washington and West Virginia. The A matrices, inverse matrices, and multipliers for suitable aggregations of these models are compared with the corresponding components of recent survey-based models for the same two states. The comparisons indicate that the RPC technique can provide at low cost models that are acceptably accurate for use in regional impact analysis.

An Evolutionary New Economic Geography Model

In this paper we present a general new economic geography model with multiple industries and regions, full labor and capital mobility, land use in production and consumption, and a dynamic adjustment process in which consumers maximize utility and firms respond to nonzero profits. All industries use intermediate inputs as well as land, labor, and capital. Systems of cities form endogenously within this framework, including asymmetrical urban hierarchies and cities of different sizes and industry compositions. Each urban area has a bid-rent gradient and zones with land uses and densities as in the von Thunen model. The equilibrium depends not only on initial conditions but also on speeds of adjustment. The model is a prototype for empirical implementation, as illustrated with a simulation of the effects of transportation cost reductions. Copyright 2000 Blackwell Publishers

The TFS regional modelling methodology

Treyz G. I. and Stevens B. H. (1985) The TFS regional modelling methodology, Reg. Studies 19, 547–562. The Treyz, Friedlaender, Stevens (TFS) regional (i.e., sub-national) modelling approach represents an alternative to constructing regional models using traditional econometric procedures (TEP). In the TFS approach, a model structure based on economic theory is successively calibrated by using information from many sources and parameter estimates at each step from studies that encompass all regions. The use of a maintained structure and of large data sets yields econometric response parameters that are valid for all regions. However, the specific calibration coefficients and the time series for the model of any particular region are based on data for that region only. This makes the behavioural characteristics of the model of one region differ substantially from those of another region but it does not change the basic theoretical structure of the model from region to region. In this article the structural...

Policy analysis applications of remi economic forecasting and simulation models

This article surveys the ways that regional economic forecasting and policy analysis models have been used to provide information as an input for policy decision making in the public and private sectors. The major areas are as follows: forecasting and planning; economic development; transportation; energy and natural resources; taxation, budget, and welfare; United States policies; and environmental policies. The survey indicates that, while analysis and research may be required to prepare for a model simulation, the predicted economic effects of a policy can be very important information as an input for a wide range of policy decisions.

Causes of changes in wage variation among states

Abstract Borts and Stein [1] point to a shift from low wage agriculture to more diversified economies as a major reason for income convergence among states from 1880 through 1950. We find continued convergence through 1980 with some divergence from 1980 to 1985. Generalizing from a bifurcated model to a model with 50 industries, we find that shifts in the mix among low- and high-wage industries causes a change in average wage rate both directly through the weighting effect and indirectly by influencing wage rates as measured by a fixed weight index.

Labour substitution and complementarity among age–sex groups

We measure substitution in production for major age-sex groups in ten industries. These estimates are important for productivity studies, for modelling derives demand for labour and for formulating policies that deal with anticipated trends in the age-sex composition of the labour force. We use Satos two-level CES production to estimate Hicks partial factor price elasticities, with quarterly time-series taken from the Social Security Continuous Work History Sample (1958 to 1975). Own elasticities are generally small and negative but vary considerably across industries. Cross elasticities show complementarity among most groups, except for younger and older females, who are subtitutes.

A family income distribution model for regional (Massachusetts) policy analysis

Abstract An earned family income distribution model for Massachussets is described. This model could be estimated and used for other national or subnational regions for which the micro data required to generate earned family income distribution at working period rates are available. The model is distinguished by its explicit inclusion of male- and female-headed families without earnings and by its attention to employment structure, labor market conditions, and wage acceleration. There is presented a policy simulation that shows the effects on earned family income distribution of cutting the Massachusetts corporate profits tax and offsetting the lost revenue with a luxury goods sales tax.

Building US National and Regional Forecasting and Simulation Models

In this paper, we describe how Regional Economic Models, Inc. constructs US national and regional forecasting and simulation models, using the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Outlook-2000 forecast. The building procedure extends a traditional input–output model to a dynamic and structural forecasting and simulation model. While much emphasis is on building a consistent US model, we also discuss the linkages and structural differences between the national and regional models. The procedure we present is generally applicable to any regional modelling undertaking. It extracts changing relationships from the national level for use in model building and forecasting at the regional level, where these relationships are not directly observable.