George Joseph

Remittances and natural disasters: ex-post response and contribution to ex-ante preparedness

Macro- and microeconomic evidence suggests a positive role of remittances in preparing households against natural disasters and in coping with the loss afterward. Analysis of cross-country macroeconomic data shows that remittances increase in the aftermath of natural disasters in countries that have a larger number of migrants abroad. Analysis of household survey data in Bangladesh shows that per capita consumption was higher in remittance-receiving households than in others after the 1998 flood. Ethiopian households that receive international remittances seem to rely more on cash reserves and less on selling household assets or livestock to cope with drought. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, international remittance-receiving households, especially those receiving remittances from high-income developed countries, tend to have housing built of concrete rather than mud and greater access to communication equipment, suggesting that they are better prepared against natural disasters.

College-to-Work Migration of Technology Graduates and Holders of Doctorates within the United States

This study estimates a series of random parameter logit models of the college-to-work migration decisions of technology graduates and holders of doctorates within the United States. We employ detailed information on the migration-relevant characteristics of individuals, as well as on their actual origins and destinations at the metropolitan scale. In addition to its obvious implications for brain drain policies in U.S. metropolitan areas, the study demonstrates the richness of the random parameters technique for behavioral-geographic analysis. We find that science and technology graduates migrate to better educated places, other things equal; that PhD graduates pay greater attention to amenity characteristics than other degree holders; and that foreign students from some immigrant groups migrate to places where those groups are concentrated. Copyright Blackwell Publishing, Inc. 2006

Potential Impact of Higher Food Prices on Poverty: Summary Estimates for a Dozen West and Central African Countries

Concerns have been raised about the impact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. To assess the impact of rising food prices in any particular country it is necessary to look at both the impact on food producers who are poor or near-poor and could benefit from an increase in prices and food consumers who are poor or near-poor and would loose out when the price increases. In most West and Central African countries, the sign (positive or negative) of the impact is not ambiguous because a substantial share of food consumption is imported, so that the negative impact for consumers is larger than the positive impact for net sellers of locally produced foods. Yet even if the sign of the impact is clear, its magnitude is not. Using a set of recent and comprehensive household surveys, this paper summarizes findings from an assessment of the potential impact of higher food prices on the poor in a dozen countries. Rising food prices for rice, wheat, maize, and other cereals as well as for milk, sugar and vegetable oils could lead to a substantial increase in poverty in many of the countries. At the same time, the data suggest that the magnitude of the increase in poverty between different countries is likely to be different. Finally, the data suggest that a large share of the increase in poverty will consist of deeper levels of poverty among households who are already poor, even if there will also be a larger number of poor households in the various countries.

Is Internal Migration in Yemen Driven by Climate or Socio‐economic Factors?

Identifying the impact of climate on migration is a difficult undertaking because migration is a multi‐causal phenomenon, with a wide range of physical, climatic, cultural, and socio‐economic factors influencing decisions made by individuals and households. Combining data from the latest census in Yemen with a weather database as well as other geographic information, we assess the push and pull factors that may drive migration. These factors include climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall and their variability, socio‐economic factors such as the attractiveness of the areas of origin and destination among others in terms of employment, education, and irrigation, and cost factors as proxied by the distance between the places of origin and destination. The results suggest that climate variables do affect migration, but in a limited way, with socio‐economic and cost factors playing a much more prominent role.

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Migration: Review of the Literature for Five Arab Countries

This chapter summarizes some of what is known about climate change in the Arab world and its impact on migration, with a focus on five countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. Migratory movements have a long history in the region, and migration decisions are influenced by a wide range of factors, many of which have nothing to do with climate change. But there is a broad consensus on the fact that factors related to climate change do contribute to migration. Such factors include more extreme weather events such as floods and droughts and the destruction they cause, as well as the effects of climate change on agricultural yields and water scarcity, among others. Understanding how climate patterns already impact migration today is important to inform not only government and other programs to help households cope with and adapt to climate change, but also a wide range of investment decisions which must anticipate future patterns of mobility and settlements. While important gaps in knowledge remain on the extent to which households are affected by climate change in the Arab world and whether climate change and extreme weather events have a large impact on migration decisions, the evidence base has been growing. This literature review summarizes the emerging literature on this topic, including insights from a recent study carried by the World Bank, AFD and Rand.

Getting to Work

Sri Lanka has shown remarkable persistence in low female labor force participation rates—at 36 percent in the past two years, compared with 75 percent for same-aged men—despite overall economic growth and poverty reduction over the past decade. The trend stands in contrast to the country’s achievements in human capital development that favor women, such as high levels of female education and low total fertility rates, as well as its status as a lower-middle-income country. This study intends to better understand the puzzle of women’s poor labor market outcomes in Sri Lanka. Using nationally representative secondary survey data—as well as primary qualitative and quantitative research—it tests three hypotheses that would explain gender gaps in labor market outcomes: (1) household roles and responsibilities, which fall disproportionately on women, and the associated sociophysical constraints on women’s mobility; (2) a human capital mismatch, whereby women are not acquiring the proper skills demanded by job markets; and (3) gender discrimination in job search, hiring, and promotion processes. Further, the analysis provides a comparison of women’s experience of the labor market between the years leading up to the end of Sri Lanka’s civil war (2006–09) and the years following the civil war (2010–15). The study recommends priority areas for addressing the multiple supply- and demand-side factors to improve women’s labor force participation rates and reduce other gender gaps in labor market outcomes. It also offers specific recommendations for improving women’s participation in the five private sector industries covered by the primary research: commercial agriculture, garments, tourism, information and communications technology, and tea estate work. The findings are intended to influence policy makers, educators, and employment program practitioners with a stake in helping Sri Lanka achieve its vision of inclusive and sustainable job creation and economic growth. The study also aims to contribute to the work of research institutions and civil society in identifying the most effective means of engaging more women—and their untapped potential for labor, innovation, and productivity—in Sri Lanka’s future.

Why are so many water points in Nigeria non-functional? : an empirical analysis of contributing factors

This paper utilizes information from the 2015 Nigeria National Water and Sanitation Survey to identify the extent, timing, as well as reasons for the failure of water points. The paper finds that more than 38 percent of all improved water points are nonfunctional. The results indicate that nearly 27 percent of the water points are likely to fail in the first year of construction, while nearly 40 percent are likely to fail in the long run (after 8-10 years). The paper considers the reasons behind these failures, looking at whether they can or cannot be controlled. During the first year, a water points location -- the political region and underlying hydrogeology -- has the greatest impact on functionality. Other factors—specifically, those that can be controlled in the design, implementation, and operational stages -- also contribute significantly. As water points age, their likelihood of failure is best predicted by factors that cannot be modified, as well as by the technology used. The paper concludes that, to improve the sustainability of water points, much can be done at the design, implementation, and operational stages. Over time, technology upgrades are important.

Geo-spatial modeling of access to water and sanitation in Nigeria

The paper presents the development and implementation of a geo-spatial model for mapping populations access to specified types of water and sanitation services in Nigeria. The analysis uses geo-located, population-representative data from the National Water and Sanitation Survey 2015, along with relevant geo-spatial covariates. The model generates predictions for levels of access to seven indicators of water and sanitation services across Nigeria at a resolution of 1×1 square kilometers. The predictions promise to hone the targeting of policies meant to improve access to basic services in various regions of the country.

Precarious drop : reassessing patterns of female labor force participation in India

This paper uses successive rounds of National Sample Survey Organization data from 1993-94 to 2011-12, and draws from census data. This paper (i) provides a description of nearly two decades of patterns and trends in female labor force participation in India; (ii) estimates the extent of the recent decline in female labor force participation; and (iii) examines and assesses the contribution of various demographic and socioeconomic factors in explaining the female labor force participation decision and the recent the drop. The analysis finds that female labor force participation dropped by 19.6 million women from 2004–05 to 2011–12. Participation declined by 11.4 percent, from 42.6 to 31.2 percent during 1993–94 to 2011–12. Approximately 53 percent of this drop occurred in rural India, among those ages 15 to 24 years. Factors such as educational attainment, socioeconomic status, and household composition largely contributed to the drop, although their effects were more pronounced in rural areas. Specifically, the analysis finds a U-shaped relationship between levels of educational attainment and female labor force participation. The decomposition of the contribution of these various determinants to the female labor force participation decision suggests that stability in family income, as indicated by the increasing share of regular wage earners and declining share of casual labor in the composition of family labor supply, has led female family members to choose dropping out of, rather than joining, the labor force. The findings of this paper suggest that conventional approaches to increasing female labor force participation (such as education and skills and legal provisions) will be insufficient. Policies should center on promoting the acceptability of female employment and investing in growing economic sectors that are more attractive for female employment.

Underreporting of gender-based violence in Kerala, India : an application of the list randomization method

This paper analyzes the incidence and extent to which domestic violence and physical harassment on public/private buses is underreported in Kerala, India, using the list randomization technique. The results indicate that the level of underreporting is over nine percentage points for domestic violence and negligible for physical harassment on public/private buses. Urban households, especially poor urban households, tend to have higher levels of incidence of domestic violence. Further, women and those who are professionally educated tend to underreport more than others. Underreporting is also higher among the youngest and oldest age cohorts. For physical harassment on public/private buses, rural population -- especially the rural non --poor and urban females—tend to underreport compared with the rural poor and urban males.