George Luber

Aflatoxin contamination of commercial maize products during an outbreak of acute aflatoxicosis in eastern and central Kenya.

In April 2004, one of the largest aflatoxicosis outbreaks occurred in rural Kenya, resulting in 317 cases and 125 deaths. Aflatoxin-contaminated homegrown maize was the source of the outbreak, but the extent of regional contamination and status of maize in commercial markets (market maize) were unknown. We conducted a cross-sectional survey to assess the extent of market maize contamination and evaluate the relationship between market maize aflatoxin and the aflatoxicosis outbreak. We surveyed 65 markets and 243 maize vendors and collected 350 maize products in the most affected districts. Fifty-five percent of maize products had aflatoxin levels greater than the Kenyan regulatory limit of 20 ppb, 35% had levels > 100 ppb, and 7% had levels > 1,000 ppb. Makueni, the district with the most aflatoxicosis case-patients, had significantly higher market maize aflatoxin than did Thika, the study district with fewest case-patients (geometric mean aflatoxin = 52.91 ppb vs. 7.52 ppb, p = 0.0004). Maize obtained from local farms in the affected area was significantly more likely to have aflatoxin levels > 20 ppb compared with maize bought from other regions of Kenya or other countries (odds ratio = 2.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.12–6.59). Contaminated homegrown maize bought from local farms in the affected area entered the distribution system, resulting in widespread aflatoxin contamination of market maize. Contaminated market maize, purchased by farmers after their homegrown supplies are exhausted, may represent a source of continued exposure to aflatoxin. Efforts to successfully interrupt exposure to aflatoxin during an outbreak must consider the potential role of the market system in sustaining exposure.

Climate Change: The Public Health Response

There is scientific consensus that the global climate is changing, with rising surface temperatures, melting ice and snow, rising sea levels, and increasing climate variability. These changes are expected to have substantial impacts on human health. There are known, effective public health responses for many of these impacts, but the scope, timeline, and complexity of climate change are unprecedented. We propose a public health approach to climate change, based on the essential public health services, that extends to both clinical and population health services and emphasizes the coordination of government agencies (federal, state, and local), academia, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations.

Integrating climate change adaptation into public health practice: using adaptive management to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience.

Background: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. Objectives: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate–health challenges that may lie outside public health’s coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health’s adaptive capacity. Methods: We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity. Discussion: There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health’s adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting. Conclusions: Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate–health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Circulation in Seven Countries With Global Disease Detection Regional Centers

BACKGROUND Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in young children globally, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries where the association between RSV activity and climate remains unclear. METHODS Monthly laboratory-confirmed RSV cases and associations with climate data were assessed for respiratory surveillance sites in tropical and subtropical areas (Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Kenya, South Africa, and Thailand) during 2004-2012. Average monthly minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation were calculated using daily local weather data from the US National Climatic Data Center. RESULTS RSV circulated with 1-2 epidemic periods each year in site areas. RSV seasonal timing and duration were generally consistent within country from year to year. Associations between RSV and weather varied across years and geographic locations. RSV usually peaked in climates with high annual precipitation (Bangladesh, Guatemala, and Thailand) during wet months, whereas RSV peaked during cooler months in moderately hot (China) and arid (Egypt) regions. In South Africa, RSV peaked in autumn, whereas no associations with seasonal weather trends were observed in Kenya. CONCLUSIONS Further understanding of RSV seasonality in developing countries and various climate regions will be important to better understand the epidemiology of RSV and for timing the use of future RSV vaccines and immunoprophylaxis in low- and middle-income countries.

Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health in India: Future Research Directions

Background Climate change and associated increases in climate variability will likely further exacerbate global health disparities. More research is needed, particularly in developing countries, to accurately predict the anticipated impacts and inform effective interventions. Objectives Building on the information presented at the 2009 Joint Indo–U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Health in Goa, India, we reviewed relevant literature and data, addressed gaps in knowledge, and identified priorities and strategies for future research in India. Discussion The scope of the problem in India is enormous, based on the potential for climate change and variability to exacerbate endemic malaria, dengue, yellow fever, cholera, and chikungunya, as well as chronic diseases, particularly among the millions of people who already experience poor sanitation, pollution, malnutrition, and a shortage of drinking water. Ongoing efforts to study these risks were discussed but remain scant. A universal theme of the recommendations developed was the importance of improving the surveillance, monitoring, and integration of meteorological, environmental, geospatial, and health data while working in parallel to implement adaptation strategies. Conclusions It will be critical for India to invest in improvements in information infrastructure that are innovative and that promote interdisciplinary collaborations while embarking on adaptation strategies. This will require unprecedented levels of collaboration across diverse institutions in India and abroad. The data can be used in research on the likely impacts of climate change on health that reflect India’s diverse climates and populations. Local human and technical capacities for risk communication and promoting adaptive behavior must also be enhanced.

Excessive Heat and Respiratory Hospitalizations in New York State: Estimating Current and Future Public Health Burden Related to Climate Change

Background: Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change. Objective: We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata. Methods: On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation. Results: The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991–2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US

Summertime Acute Heat Illness in U.S. Emergency Departments from 2006 through 2010: Analysis of a Nationally Representative Sample

644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080–2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206–607 excess hospital admissions, US

An Evidence-Based Public Health Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

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Building Resilience Against Climate Effects—a novel framework to facilitate climate readiness in public health agencies.

76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299–3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics. Conclusions: We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080–2099 than in 1991–2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial.

COMMUNITY AERIAL MOSQUITO CONTROL AND NALED EXPOSURE

Background: Patients with acute heat illness present primarily to emergency departments (EDs), yet little is known regarding these visits. Objective: We aimed to describe acute heat illness visits to U.S. EDs from 2006 through 2010 and identify factors associated with hospital admission or with death in the ED. Methods: We extracted ED case-level data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) for 2006–2010, defining cases as ED visits from May through September with any heat illness diagnosis (ICD-9-CM 992.0–992.9). We correlated visit rates and temperature anomalies, analyzed demographics and ED disposition, identified risk factors for adverse outcomes, and examined ED case fatality rates (CFR). Results: There were 326,497 (95% CI: 308,372, 344,658) cases, with 287,875 (88.2%) treated and released, 38,392 (11.8%) admitted, and 230 (0.07%) died in the ED. Heat illness diagnoses were first-listed in 68%. 74.7% had heat exhaustion, 5.4% heat stroke. Visit rates were highly correlated with annual temperature anomalies (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.882, p = 0.005). Treat-and-release rates were highest for younger adults (26.2/100,000/year), whereas hospitalization and death-in-the-ED rates were highest for older adults (6.7 and 0.03/100,000/year, respectively); all rates were highest in rural areas. Heat stroke had an ED CFR of 99.4/10,000 (95% CI: 78.7, 120.1) visits and was diagnosed in 77.0% of deaths. Adjusted odds of hospital admission or death in the ED were higher among elders, males, urban and low-income residents, and those with chronic conditions. Conclusions: Heat illness presented to the ED frequently, with highest rates in rural areas. Case definitions should include all diagnoses. Visit rates were correlated with temperature anomalies. Heat stroke had a high ED CFR. Males, elders, and the chronically ill were at greatest risk of admission or death in the ED. Chronic disease burden exponentially increased this risk. Citation: Hess JJ, Saha S, Luber G. 2014. Summertime acute heat illness in U.S. emergency departments from 2006 through 2010: analysis of a nationally representative sample. Environ Health Perspect 122:1209–1215; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306796