George Rowlands

A simple avalanche model as an analogue for magnetospheric activity

The power law dependence of the power spectrum of auroral indices, and in-situ magnetic field observations in the earths geotail, may be evidence that the coupled solar wind-magnetospheric system exhibits scale free self organised criticality and can to some extent be described by avalanche models. In contrast, the intensity of, and time interval between, substorms both have well defined probability distributions with characteristic scales. We present results from a simple cellular automaton that models avalanches in a one dimensional “sandpile”; here we examine the simplest case of constant inflow. This model generates a probability distribution of energy discharges due to internal reorganization that is a power law implying SOC, whereas systemwide discharges (flow of “sand” out of the system) form a distinct group which do not exhibit SOC. The energy dissipated in a systemwide discharge follows a probability distribution with a well defined mean, as does the time interval between one systemwide discharge and the next. Internal and external avalanches can therefore in principle be identified with distinct processes in the dynamic geotail. If so, the avalanche model places restrictions on the class of physical process that may be invoked to explain the observed geomagnetic dynamics.

Solitary, explosive, and periodic solutions of the quantum Zakharov-Kuznetsov equation and its transverse instability

By employing the quantum hydrodynamic model and the reductive perturbation technique, a quantum Zakharov-Kuznetsov (QZK) equation is derived for finite but small amplitude ion-acoustic waves in a quantum magnetoplasma. The extended Contes truncation method is used to obtain the solitary, explosive, and periodic solutions of the QZK equation. Furthermore, the stability of the solitary wave solution of the QZK equation is investigated by using the small-k perturbation expansion method.

Intermittency, scaling and the Fokker-Planck approach to fluctuations of the solar wind bulk plasma parameters as seen by the WIND spacecraft.

The solar wind provides a natural laboratory for observations of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence over extended temporal scales. Here, we apply a model independent method of differencing and rescaling to identify self-similarity in the probability density functions (PDF) of fluctuations in solar wind bulk plasma parameters as seen by the WIND spacecraft. Whereas the fluctuations of speed v and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude B are multifractal, we find that the fluctuations in the ion density rho, energy densities B2 and rhov(2) as well as MHD-approximated Poynting flux vB(2) are monoscaling on the time scales up to 26 hr. The single curve, which we find to describe the fluctuations PDF of all these quantities up to this time scale, is non-Gaussian. We model this PDF with two approaches--Fokker-Planck, for which we derive the transport coefficients and associated Langevin equation, and the Castaing distribution that arises from a model for the intermittent turbulent cascade.

Finite size scaling in the solar wind magnetic field energy density as seen by WIND

Statistical properties of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuations can provide an important insight into the solar wind turbulent cascade. Recently, analysis of the Probability Density Functions (PDF) of the velocity and magnetic field fluctuations has shown that these exhibit non-Gaussian properties on small time scales while large scale features appear to be uncorrelated. Here we apply the finite size scaling technique to explore the scaling of the magnetic field energy density fluctuations as seen by WIND. We find a single scaling sufficient to collapse the curves over the entire investigated range. The rescaled PDF follow a non Gaussian distribution with asymptotic behavior well described by the Gamma distribution arising from a finite range Levy walk. Such mono scaling suggests that a Fokker-Planck approach can be applied to study the PDF dynamics. These results strongly suggest the existence of a common, nonlinear process on the time scale up to 26 hours.

Scaling and a Fokker-Planck model for fluctuations in geomagnetic indices and comparison with solar wind as seen by Wind and ACE

The evolution of magnetospheric indices on temporal scales shorter than that of substorms is characterized by bursty, intermittent events that may arise from turbulence intrinsic to the magnetosphere or that may reflect solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. This leads to a generic problem of distinguishing between the features of the system and those of the driver. We quantify scaling properties of short-term (up to few hours) fluctuations in the geomagnetic indices AL and AU during solar minimum and maximum, along with the parameter that is a measure of the solar wind driver. We find that self-similar statistics provide a good approximation for the observed scaling properties of fluctuations in the geomagnetic indices, regardless of the solar activity level, and in the parameter at solar maximum. This self-similarity persists for fluctuations on timescales at least up to about 1–2 hours. The scaling exponent of AU index fluctuations show dependence on the solar cycle, and the trend follows that found in the scaling of fluctuations in . The values of their corresponding scaling exponents, however, are always distinct. Fluctuations in the AL index are insensitive to the solar cycle, as well as being distinct from those in the parameter. This approximate self-similar scaling leads to a Fokker-Planck model which, we show, captures the probability density function of fluctuations and provides a stochastic dynamical equation (Langevin equation) for time series of the geomagnetic indices.

Determination of the growth rate for the linearized Zakharov—Kuznetsov equation

Studies of the Zakharov—Kuznetsov equation governing solitons in a strongly magnetized ion-acoustic plasma indicate that a perturbed flat soliton is unstable and evolves into higher-dimensional solitons. The growth rate γ = γ( k ) of a small sinusoidal perturbation of wavenumber k to a flat soliton has already been found numerically, and lengthy analytical work has given the value of We introduce a more direct analytical method in the form of an extension to the usual multiple-scale perturbation approach and use it to determine a consistent expansion of γ about k = 0 and the other zero at k 2 = 5.By combining these results in the form of a two-point Pade approximant, we obtain an analytical expression for γ valid over the entire range of k for which the solution is unstable. We also present a very efficient numerical method for determining the growth rate curve to great accuracy. The Pade approximant gives excellent agreement with the numerical results.

Scaling in long term data sets of geomagnetic indices and solar wind ϵ as seen by WIND spacecraft

[4] In this paper we use a larger 10-year data set for the AE indices to obtain a more accurate statistical determination of the functional form of the PDF of fluctuations over a more extensive dynamic range, including characterization of extremal events up to 10 standard deviations for the first time. We apply structure functions to characterize and compare both the low and higher order moments for all quantities. A 4-year subset of the index data, corresponding to the same period in the solar cycle as that used to produce � , is used to facilitate this comparison. We then verify these results by direct examination of the fluctuation PDF using the full 10-year AE indices dataset.

Robustness of collective behaviour in strongly driven avalanche models: Magnetospheric implications

The hypothesis of self-organised criticality (SOC) predicts that certain open dissipative systems evolve to a critical state where all energy release statistics display power law distributions for event occurrence, size and duration. This has motivated “sandpile” simulations of magnetospheric energy confinement and release events (“avalanches”), previous examples of which have taken the limit where energy inflow (“fuelling”) is slow relative to dissipation, and either uniform or random. However the magnetospheric system has both slow and fast periods mixed together in observations, and naturally modulated fuelling. We have developed an avalanche model with variable, modulated fuelling rate. The power law form for the distribution of energy release events is the least ambiguous current indicator of SOC; we show that this is preserved for the large avalanches in such a system under both constant and varying loading and so such systems are remarkably efficient at eliminating small scale information about their fuelling.

Compressibility in Solar Wind Plasma Turbulence

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamics is often assumed to describe solar wind turbulence. We use extended self-similarity to reveal scaling in the structure functions of density fluctuations in the solar wind. The obtained scaling is then compared with that found in the inertial range of quantities identified as passive scalars in other turbulent systems. We find that these are not coincident. This implies that either solar wind turbulence is compressible or that straightforward comparison of structure functions does not adequately capture its inertial range properties.

Football goal distributions and extremal statistics

We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored are too heavy-tailed to be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions which would be expected for uncorrelated processes. Log-normal distributions cannot include zero scores and here we find that the PDFs are consistent with those arising from extremal statistics. In addition, we show that it is sufficient to model English top division and FA Cup matches in the seasons of 1970/71–2000/01 on Poisson or negative binomial distributions, as reported in analyses of earlier seasons, and that these are not consistent with extremal statistics.