Georgine Yorgey

BioEarth: Envisioning and developing a new regional earth system model to inform natural and agricultural resource management

As managers of agricultural and natural resources are confronted with uncertainties in global change impacts, the complexities associated with the interconnected cycling of nitrogen, carbon, and water present daunting management challenges. Existing models provide detailed information on specific sub-systems (e.g., land, air, water, and economics). An increasing awareness of the unintended consequences of management decisions resulting from interconnectedness of these sub-systems, however, necessitates coupled regional earth system models (EaSMs). Decision makers’ needs and priorities can be integrated into the model design and development processes to enhance decision-making relevance and “usability” of EaSMs. BioEarth is a research initiative currently under development with a focus on the U.S. Pacific Northwest region that explores the coupling of multiple stand-alone EaSMs to generate usable information for resource decision-making. Direct engagement between model developers and non-academic stakeholders involved in resource and environmental management decisions throughout the model development process is a critical component of this effort. BioEarth utilizes a bottom-up approach for its land surface model that preserves fine spatial-scale sensitivities and lateral hydrologic connectivity, which makes it unique among many regional EaSMs. This paper describes the BioEarth initiative and highlights opportunities and challenges associated with coupling multiple stand-alone models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision-making.

Integrating Historic Agronomic and Policy Lessons with New Technologies to Drive Farmer Decisions for Farm and Climate: The Case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.

Climate-friendly best management practices for mitigating and adapting to climate change (cfBMPs) include changes in crop rotation, soil management and resource use. Determined largely by precipitation gradients, specific agroecological systems in the inland Pacific Northwestern U.S. (iPNW) feature different practices across the region. Historically, these farming systems have been economically productive, but at the cost of high soil erosion rates and organic matter depletion, making them win-lose situations. Agronomic, sociological, political and economic drivers all influence cropping system innovations. Integrated, holistic conservation systems also need to be identified to address climate change by integrating cfBMPs that provide win-win benefits for farmer and environment. We conclude that systems featuring short-term improvements in farm economics, market diversification, resource efficiency and soil health will be most readily adopted by farmers, thereby simultaneously addressing longer term challenges including climate change. Specific ‘win-win scenarios’ are designed for different iPNW production zones delineated by water availability. The cfBMPs include reduced tillage and residue management, organic carbon (C) recycling, precision nitrogen (N) management and crop rotation diversification and intensification. Current plant breeding technologies have provided new cultivars of canola and pea that can diversify system agronomics and markets. These agronomic improvements require associated shifts in prescriptive, precision N and weed management. The integrated cfBMP systems we describe have the potential for reducing system-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by increasing soil C storage, N use efficiency (NUE) and by production of biofuels. Novel systems, even if they are economically competitive, can come with increased financial risk to producers, necessitating government support (e.g., subsidized crop insurance) to promote adoption. Other conservation- and climate change-targeted farm policies can also improve adoption. Ultimately, farmers must meet their economic and legacy goals to assure longer-term adoption of mature cfBMP for iPNW production systems.

Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities

In order for agricultural systems to successfully mitigate and adapt to climate change there is a need to coordinate and prioritize next steps for research and extension. This includes focusing on “win-win” management practices that simultaneously provide short-term benefits to farmers and improve the sustainability and resiliency of agricultural systems with respect to climate change. In the Northwest U.S., a collaborative process has been used to engage individuals spanning the research-practice continuum. This collaborative approach was utilized at a 2016 workshop titled “Agriculture in a Changing Climate,” that included a broad range of participants including university faculty and students, crop and livestock producers, and individuals representing state, tribal and federal government agencies, industry, nonprofit organizations, and conservation districts. The Northwest U.S. encompasses a range of agro-ecological systems and diverse geographic and climatic contexts. Regional research and science communication efforts for climate change and agriculture have a strong history of engaging diverse stakeholders. These features of the Northwest U.S. provide a foundation for the collaborative research and extension prioritization presented here. We focus on identifying research and extension actions that can be taken over the next five years in four areas identified as important areas by conference organizers and participants: (1) cropping systems, (2) livestock systems, (3) decision support systems to support consideration of climate change in agricultural management decisions; and (4) partnerships among researchers and stakeholders. We couple insights from the workshop and a review of current literature to articulate current scientific understanding, and priorities recommended by workshop participants that target existing knowledge gaps, challenges, and opportunities. Priorities defined at the Agriculture in a Changing Climate workshop highlight the need for ongoing investment in interdisciplinary research integrating social, economic and biophysical sciences, strategic collaborations, and knowledge sharing to develop actionable science that can support informed decision-making in the agriculture sector as the climate changes.

Global change implications on long-term water supply and demand forecasts in the columbia river basin

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) encompasses parts of seven US states and British Columbia in Canada over a land mass approximately the size of France. It is a vital part of the ecosystem and economies of the entire region. The CRB, like many watersheds around the world, is experiencing increased pressure on water resources and ecosystems, due to population growth, threatened and endangered species, economic development, and climate change. Irrigation is responsible for the majority of consumptive use in the watershed so the implications of climate change are a tremendous concern as we strive to feed a growing population. To facilitate strategic planning and investment, the State of Washington requires a long-term water supply and demand forecast (the Forecast) every five years. An interdisciplinary WSU research team integrated three biophysical models with an agricultural economics model to conduct a system-wide assessment of how future environmental and economic conditions are likely to change water supply and demand by 2030. Timing of supply changes will shift water away from the Sustainable Irrigation and Drainage IV 77 www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541 (on-line) WIT Transactions on Ecology and The Environment, Vol 168,

Impacts of climate and municipal water demand changes on ecological flows in the Columbia river basin, USA

Water rights in the western United States are granted under the prior appropriation doctrine; essentially first in time, first in right. Because many rights were issued prior to instream or ecological flow requirements, regulatory agencies have little authority to curtail diversions even when critical endangered species habitat is threatened. Compounding the issues is that municipal water rights throughout the Columbia River Basin were issued with significant “inchoate” portions (unused) that threaten sustainable water management as climate change and population growths alter instream flows. In many regions, this is placing challenging restrictions on management for endangered species such as salmon and bull trout species. This is slowly evolving into policies such as the one adopted by the state of Washington where state investment in water projects reserves at least 1/3 for instream uses. We developed a combined VIC/CropSyst model that predicted water supply changes in the Columbia River watershed (7 states and a portion of British Columbia) due to climate change in the 2030’s and, by examining municipal water plans and population growth models, predicted future water demands within existing water rights and evaluated impacts to instream flows. There is an expected 26% increase in municipal demand (700 MCM) in the State of Washington alone with just over 50% being consumptively used. Other upstream communities in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon face similar situations to varying degrees. Results indicated that communities located on several tributaries will