Georgios N. Angelou

A Decision Analysis Framework for Prioritizing a Portfolio of ICT Infrastructure Projects

The inadequacy of traditional quantitative cost-benefit analysis for evaluating information and communications technologies (ICT) infrastructure investments have led researchers to suggest real options (ROs) analysis for valuating ICT projects. However, ROs models are strictly quantitative and often, ICT investments may contain qualitative factors that cannot be quantified in monetary terms. In addition, ROs analysis results in some factors that can be treated more efficiently when taken qualitatively. This paper combines ROs and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) into a common decision analysis framework, providing an integrated multiobjective, multicriteria model called ROAHP for prioritizing a portfolio of interdependent ICT investments. The proposed model is applied to an ICT case study showing how it can be formulated and solved.

A Real Options Approach for Prioritizing ICT Business Alternatives: A Case Study from Broadband Technology Business Field

This paper provides a methodology for finding the optimum deployment strategy for information and communication technologies business activities in the context of initial infrastructure projects, which support a number of future investment opportunities. It treats these opportunities as real options (ROs) and assumes that there is a competitive threat that can influence them negatively, or even worse, eliminate their value. We take into account that the competitors’ rate of arrival and erosion of competitiveness, during the waiting phase for the ROs to invest, follow a joint-diffusion process with the investments’ revenues. The proposed methodology is applied to a real-life broadband technology business activity showing how it can be formulated and solved.

Flexible ICT Investments Analysis Using Real Options

Information-Communication Technology (ICT) investments analysis using Real Options (ROs) has been a subject of active research during the last decade. It is a flexible method to value investment opportunities and to derive optimal timing of investments deployment taking into account uncertainties in future benefits and costs. We develop a framework for classifying the research on real ICT projects’ evaluation using ROs. We analyze these projects with respect to three issues: 1) the complexity of the ICT project, 2) the ROs calculation method and 3) the assumptions made. Finally, we conclude and suggest directions for future research.

E-Learning Investment Risk Management

E-learning markets have been expanding very rapidly. As a result, the involved senior managers are increasingly being confronted with the need to make significant investment decisions related to the elearning business activities. Real options applications to risk management and investment evaluation of Information and Communication Technologies ICT have mainly focused on a single and a priori known option. However, these options are not inherent in any ICT investment. Actually, they must be carefully planned and intentionally embedded in the ICT investment in order to mitigate its risks and increase its return. Moreover, when an ICT investment involves multiple risks, by adopting different series of cascading options we may achieve risk mitigation and enhance investment performance. In this article, we apply real options to the e-learning investments evaluation. Given the investments requirements, assumptions and risks, the goal is to maximize the investments value by identifying a good way to structure it using carefully chosen real options.

ICT Investments Under Competition Threat

In this paper, we estimate the value of an Information Communication Technology (ICT) investment opportunity, modeled as a Real Option (RO), when there is competition threat that can influence negatively its value or even more eliminate it. So far in the ICT literature, competition modeling is mainly focusing on duopoly market conditions, where investment actions taken by the firm may likely result in strategic answers by its competitors. However, after the ICT liberalization, the number of firms has been increased and the market structure tends to change from oligopoly to perfect competition. So, it is not practical to employ endogenous competition modeling. We relax the existing literature assumptions concerning exogenous competition modeling by considering that the competitors’ arrival rate and the competitive erosion during the waiting phase for the RO to invest follow stochastic processes in discrete time domain. We provide a ROs model, which estimates the value of a future investment opportunity when competitive entry can take part of the overall market value away from the firm that possesses this option. The results of our models prove that longer “wait-and-see” periods before exercising the ICT real option may indicate higher options values compared to the shorter ones, for some specific business conditions despite the competition threat for possible elimination of the future investment opportunity.

Broadband business for new entrants A techno-economic analysis for utility based firms

This study provides a model for analyzing the new perspectives for investors in the broadband business field. It integrates real options, SWOT analysis and fuzzy logic into a decision analysis framework for formulating and evaluating such business opportunities. Finally, we discuss a real case study in the specific business field showing how the model can be formulated and solved.

Broadband Business Opportunities for Utility Based Firms in the New Era: Modeling the Competition

After the deregulation of the telecommunications market, municipalities and utility-based firms which own physical resources are capable of entering in this market. This study focuses on the broadband business field and provides a model for analyzing the new perspectives for new investors in the field. It integrates real options and game theory and considers price and quantity competition for various stages of the business game in order to find the optimal business strategy. Both techniques are based on quantitative analysis, while the complicated broadband business field requires a multi-criteria analysis including also qualitative thinking. The various business factors are integrated into a single utility function using the Analytic Hierarch Process. Finally, we discuss a real world case study in the specific business field.

Telecommunication Investments Analysis: A Multi-Criteria Model

Recognizing the inadequacy of traditional quantitative cost-benefits analysis for evaluating telecommunications investments, researchers suggest real options (ROs) for controlling and valuating telecommunications business activities. However, ROs are based on the concept to delay investment for collecting more information and learning more about business conditions and during this delay another competitor may act gaining significant competition advantage. In addition, RO models are strictly quantitative and very often telecommunications investments may contain qualitative factors, which cannot be quantified in monetary terms. In addition, ROs analysis results in some factors that can be treated more efficiently when taken qualitatively. This work deals with quantitative and qualitative analysis and integrates ROs and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) into a common decision analysis framework providing a multi-criteria model, for analyzing telecommunication investments in the deregulated business field.