Gerald A. Carlson

Anderson, Jock R., John L. Dillon, and J. Brian Hardaker. Agricultural Decision Analysis. Ames: Iowa State University Press, 1977, 344 pp.,

Contents : Introduction to Decision Analysis; Probablility; Revision of Probabilities; Utility; Procedures for Decision Analysis; Production under Risk; Whole-Farm Planning under Risk; Investment Appraisal; Decision Analysis with Preferences Unknown; Appendix; Author Index; Subject Index

17.50

This article examines the potential demand for Bt cotton in the Southeast from information gathered in the first year of commercialization. We combine revealed preference (RP) data on adoption of Bt cotton varieties with stated preference (SP) data on willingness to adopt to estimate demand using a double-bounded maximum likelihood procedure. Using estimated demand equations, we simulate the costs of reducing conventional insecticide applications through subsidization of Bt cotton. Results indicate that reducing cotton insecticide applications by 40% in the Southeast would require a

Estimating the Demand for a New Technology: Bt Cotton and Insecticide Policies

21/acre subsidy, with total annual program costs between

A Hedonic Analysis of Herbicides: Do User Safety and Water Quality Matter?

53 million and

Testing for common versus private property: The case of pesticide resistance☆

60 million.

Long-Run Productivity of Insecticides

Farmers may value water quality and user safety characteristics of herbicides as they select among products to obtain weed control. Expenditures per application in the U.S. corn and soybean herbicide markets are explained by several safety characteristics in addition to market and weed control characteristics. The explicit inclusion of safety characteristics in the farm decision model indicates that not all safety aspects of pesticide use are external to farmers. Leaching potential and user toxicity are statistically significant, but their elasticities are small relative to broadleaf and grass weed control efficacy.

The Decision to Double Crop: An Application of Expected Utility Theory Using Stein's Theorem

Abstract Pesticide resistance management is modeled in a linear-quadratic form with price expectations being formed rationally. The parameter estimates allow testing of common property versus private property characteristics, and of the existence of resistance buildup. Using aggregate data on U.S. sales of herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides, the results show common property characteristics together with resistance buildup for insecticides, resistance buildup for fungicides, but no resistance buildup or common property characteristics for herbicides. This methodology could be used to test for other common property actions.

Effects of Insecticide Attributes on Within-Season Insecticide Product and Rate Choices: The Case of U.S. Apple Growers

prompted research on the private costs and returns from the use of these chemicals. Headley uses 1963 state data to estimate a

Participation in Pest Management Groups

4 return for each dollar of pesticide materials of all types (fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, etc.) used on U.S. farms. He indicates that this result helped explain the rapid increase in sales volume of pesticides. But during the 1960s producers were giving additional attention to pest control as more insect species became resistant to more chemical types. Many policy questions on the limitation of use and registration of insecticides require more detailed knowledge of the demand for specific compounds. Regulatory officials are concerned about the substitutability of other chemical and nonchemical pest controls (Davis et al.). Yet, no statistical estimates of insecticide demand are presently available. The importance of insecticide resistance in affecting demand for specific compounds and the long-run productivity of insecticides are investigated in this paper. Individual farm data from several cotton production regions and aggregate insecticide use data are used to test hypotheses of falling productivity of insecticides and substitutability between chemical types.

Economics of biological control of pests

A nonlinear, single-equation acreage allocation model derived from expected utility theory using Steins theorem for covariance decomposition is developed. This decomposition allows the covariance of utility parameters and revenues to be expressed in terms of measurable variables. The model is applied to state-level data to estimate the relative importance of various economic factors in determining the pattern of double cropping wheat and soybeans in the southeastern United States. The hypothesis that the riskiness of returns is important in the aggregate is rejected for some of the states, although the constrained expected utility model without the effect of risk performs better than a standard wheat acreage response model.