Gerard Kiely

Climate change in Ireland from precipitation and streamflow observations

Abstract On the basis of General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments with increased CO 2 , many parts of the northern latitudes including western Europe, are expected to have enhanced hydrologic cycles. Using observations of precipitation and streamflow from Ireland, we test for climatic and hydrologic change in this maritime climate of the northeast Atlantic. Five decades of hourly precipitation (at eight sites) and daily streamflow at four rivers in Ireland were investigated for patterns of climate variability. An increase in annual precipitation was found to occur after 1975. This increase in precipitation is most noticeable on the West of the island. Precipitation increases are significant in March and October and are associated with increases in the frequency of wet hours with no change in the hourly intensities. Analysis of streamflow data shows the same trends. Furthermore, analysis of extreme rainfall events show that a much greater proportion of extremes have occurred in the period since 1975. A change also occurred in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index around 1975. The increased NAO since 1975 is associated with increased westerly airflow circulation in the Northeast Atlantic and is correlated with the wetter climate in Ireland. These climatic changes have implications for water resources management particularly flood analysis and protection.

Productivity, Respiration, and Light-Response Parameters of World Grassland and Agroecosystems Derived From Flux-Tower Measurements

Abstract Grasslands and agroecosystems occupy one-third of the terrestrial area, but their contribution to the global carbon cycle remains uncertain. We used a set of 316 site-years of CO2 exchange measurements to quantify gross primary productivity, respiration, and light-response parameters of grasslands, shrublands/savanna, wetlands, and cropland ecosystems worldwide. We analyzed data from 72 global flux-tower sites partitioned into gross photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration with the use of the light-response method (Gilmanov, T. G., D. A. Johnson, and N. Z. Saliendra. 2003. Growing season CO2 fluxes in a sagebrush-steppe ecosystem in Idaho: Bowen ratio/energy balance measurements and modeling. Basic and Applied Ecology 4:167–183) from the RANGEFLUX and WORLDGRASSAGRIFLUX data sets supplemented by 46 sites from the FLUXNET La Thuile data set partitioned with the use of the temperature-response method (Reichstein, M., E. Falge, D. Baldocchi, D. Papale, R. Valentini, M. Aubinet, P. Berbigier, C. Bernhofer, N. Buchmann, M. Falk, T. Gilmanov, A. Granier, T. Grünwald, K. Havránková, D. Janous, A. Knohl, T. Laurela, A. Lohila, D. Loustau, G. Matteucci, T. Meyers, F. Miglietta, J. M. Ourcival, D. Perrin, J. Pumpanen, S. Rambal, E. Rotenberg, M. Sanz, J. Tenhunen, G. Seufert, F. Vaccari, T. Vesala, and D. Yakir. 2005. On the separation of net ecosystem exchange into assimilation and ecosystem respiration: review and improved algorithm. Global Change Biology 11:1424–1439). Maximum values of the quantum yield (α  =  75 mmol · mol−1), photosynthetic capacity (Amax  =  3.4 mg CO2 · m−2 · s−1), gross photosynthesis (Pg,max  =  116 g CO2 · m−2 · d−1), and ecological light-use efficiency (εecol  =  59 mmol · mol−1) of managed grasslands and high-production croplands exceeded those of most forest ecosystems, indicating the potential of nonforest ecosystems for uptake of atmospheric CO2. Maximum values of gross primary production (8 600 g CO2 · m−2 · yr−1), total ecosystem respiration (7 900 g CO2 · m−2 · yr−1), and net CO2 exchange (2 400 g CO2 · m−2 · yr−1) were observed for intensively managed grasslands and high-yield crops, and are comparable to or higher than those for forest ecosystems, excluding some tropical forests. On average, 80% of the nonforest sites were apparent sinks for atmospheric CO2, with mean net uptake of 700 g CO2 · m−2 · yr−1 for intensive grasslands and 933 g CO2 · m−2 · d−1 for croplands. However, part of these apparent sinks is accumulated in crops and forage, which are carbon pools that are harvested, transported, and decomposed off site. Therefore, although agricultural fields may be predominantly sinks for atmospheric CO2, this does not imply that they are necessarily increasing their carbon stock.

On the structure of soil moisture time series in the context of land surface models

Root-zone soil moisture is addressed as a key variable controlling surface water and energy balances. Particular focus is applied to the soil moisture controls on wet-end drainage and dry-end transpiration, and the integrated effects of these controls on the structure of soil moisture time series. Analysis is centered on data collected during a pair of field experiments, where a site in Virginia (USA) provides evidence of dynamics under dry conditions and a site in Cork (Ireland) captures dynamics under wet conditions. It is demonstrated that drainage processes (controlled by the saturated hydraulic conductivity) determine the magnitude of soil moisture at the start of the drying process and hence affect uniformly the entire distribution of soil moisture, from wet to dry. Therefore, stationary bias between predicted and measured soil moisture can be evidence of a bias in the saturated conductivity. In contrast to this, the dry-end soil controls on transpiration affect predominantly the dry-end of the soil moisture distribution, as subsequent storms act to reset the system and remove the memory of the dry state. Hence, analysis of departure between predicted and measured soil moisture that is local to the dry-end can guide estimation of the soil moisture level at which transpiration becomes limited by water availability. The temporal statistics of soil moisture are shown to exhibit threshold response to the specification of saturated conductivity in land surface models. Finally, we demonstrate the relative influences of saturated conductivity and precipitation intensity on the structural features of the root-zone soil moisture distribution.

Joint control of terrestrial gross primary productivity by plant phenology and physiology

Significance Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), the total photosynthetic CO2 fixation at ecosystem level, fuels all life on land. However, its spatiotemporal variability is poorly understood, because GPP is determined by many processes related to plant phenology and physiological activities. In this study, we find that plant phenological and physiological properties can be integrated in a robust index—the product of the length of CO2 uptake period and the seasonal maximal photosynthesis—to explain the GPP variability over space and time in response to climate extremes and during recovery after disturbance. Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) varies greatly over time and space. A better understanding of this variability is necessary for more accurate predictions of the future climate–carbon cycle feedback. Recent studies have suggested that variability in GPP is driven by a broad range of biotic and abiotic factors operating mainly through changes in vegetation phenology and physiological processes. However, it is still unclear how plant phenology and physiology can be integrated to explain the spatiotemporal variability of terrestrial GPP. Based on analyses of eddy–covariance and satellite-derived data, we decomposed annual terrestrial GPP into the length of the CO2 uptake period (CUP) and the seasonal maximal capacity of CO2 uptake (GPPmax). The product of CUP and GPPmax explained >90% of the temporal GPP variability in most areas of North America during 2000–2010 and the spatial GPP variation among globally distributed eddy flux tower sites. It also explained GPP response to the European heatwave in 2003 (r2 = 0.90) and GPP recovery after a fire disturbance in South Dakota (r2 = 0.88). Additional analysis of the eddy–covariance flux data shows that the interbiome variation in annual GPP is better explained by that in GPPmax than CUP. These findings indicate that terrestrial GPP is jointly controlled by ecosystem-level plant phenology and photosynthetic capacity, and greater understanding of GPPmax and CUP responses to environmental and biological variations will, thus, improve predictions of GPP over time and space.

The uncertain climate footprint of wetlands under human pressure

Significance Wetlands are unique ecosystems because they are in general sinks for carbon dioxide and sources of methane. Their climate footprint therefore depends on the relative sign and magnitude of the land–atmosphere exchange of these two major greenhouse gases. This work presents a synthesis of simultaneous measurements of carbon dioxide and methane fluxes to assess the radiative forcing of natural wetlands converted to agricultural or forested land. The net climate impact of wetlands is strongly dependent on whether they are natural or managed. Here we show that the conversion of natural wetlands produces a significant increase of the atmospheric radiative forcing. The findings suggest that management plans for these complex ecosystems should carefully account for the potential biogeochemical effects on climate. Significant climate risks are associated with a positive carbon–temperature feedback in northern latitude carbon-rich ecosystems, making an accurate analysis of human impacts on the net greenhouse gas balance of wetlands a priority. Here, we provide a coherent assessment of the climate footprint of a network of wetland sites based on simultaneous and quasi-continuous ecosystem observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Experimental areas are located both in natural and in managed wetlands and cover a wide range of climatic regions, ecosystem types, and management practices. Based on direct observations we predict that sustained CH4 emissions in natural ecosystems are in the long term (i.e., several centuries) typically offset by CO2 uptake, although with large spatiotemporal variability. Using a space-for-time analogy across ecological and climatic gradients, we represent the chronosequence from natural to managed conditions to quantify the “cost” of CH4 emissions for the benefit of net carbon sequestration. With a sustained pulse–response radiative forcing model, we found a significant increase in atmospheric forcing due to land management, in particular for wetland converted to cropland. Our results quantify the role of human activities on the climate footprint of northern wetlands and call for development of active mitigation strategies for managed wetlands and new guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) accounting for both sustained CH4 emissions and cumulative CO2 exchange.

PHYSICAL AND MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF ANAEROBIC DIGESTION OF ORGANIC WASTES

Anaerobic digestion of the organic food fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW), on its own or co-digested with primary sewage sludge (PSS), produces high quality biogas, suitable as renewable energy. We report the results from one such bench scale laboratory experiment, on the co-digestion of OFMSW and PSS. The experiment used a continuously stirred tank reactor and operated at 36°C for 115 days. Prior to the experiments, activity tests verified that the inoculum sludges were suitable for the biodegradation of the volatile fatty acid substrate and so producing biogas. The experimental data were used to develop and validate a two-stage mathematical model of acidogenesis and methanogenesis. In simulating the behavior of the anaerobic digestion process, including ammonia inhibition, the mathematical model successfully predicts the performance of methane production. Simulations of the pH and ammonia in the MSW anaerobic reactor were also satisfactory. Sensitivity analysis on the 18 model parameters indicated that eight of these parameters were in the most sensitive and highly sensitive range, while the remainder were in the moderate to least sensitive range.

Recent trends in diurnal variation of precipitation at Valentia on the west coast of Ireland

Abstract An investigation of 54 years of hourly precipitation at Valentia, on the south-west coast of Ireland, shows a change point in the annual amounts in the years around 1975 (identified by the Pettitt—Mann—Whitney statistic). This results in a 10% increase in the mean annual precipitation from a pre-1975 value of 1375 mm to a post-1975 value of 1507 mm. Most of that increase is absorbed in the months of March and October. The frequency of hourly precipitation in March in the post-1975 period is 57% greater than that of March in the pre-1975 period. However, the magnitude of the hourly intensity of precipitation in March for both periods was similar. Significant changes in wet hour frequency also occurred in October with no corresponding change in hourly intensity. These results compliment findings by others, that regions in Northern European latitudes have experienced an increase in precipitation since the mid-1970s.

Thermal optimality of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and underlying mechanisms.

• It is well established that individual organisms can acclimate and adapt to temperature to optimize their functioning. However, thermal optimization of ecosystems, as an assemblage of organisms, has not been examined at broad spatial and temporal scales. • Here, we compiled data from 169 globally distributed sites of eddy covariance and quantified the temperature response functions of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), an ecosystem-level property, to determine whether NEE shows thermal optimality and to explore the underlying mechanisms. • We found that the temperature response of NEE followed a peak curve, with the optimum temperature (corresponding to the maximum magnitude of NEE) being positively correlated with annual mean temperature over years and across sites. Shifts of the optimum temperature of NEE were mostly a result of temperature acclimation of gross primary productivity (upward shift of optimum temperature) rather than changes in the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration. • Ecosystem-level thermal optimality is a newly revealed ecosystem property, presumably reflecting associated evolutionary adaptation of organisms within ecosystems, and has the potential to significantly regulate ecosystem-climate change feedbacks. The thermal optimality of NEE has implications for understanding fundamental properties of ecosystems in changing environments and benchmarking global models.

Vegetation and environmental variation in an Atlantic blanket bog in South-western Ireland

A vegetation survey was carried out in a relatively intact Atlantic blanket bog in Southwest Ireland to study the vegetation patterns in relation to environmental variation, and to quantify the effect of artificial and natural borders on compositional variation. The data were analysed using canonical correspondence analysis. In terms of both vegetation and water chemistry, the study site can be categorized as typical of Atlantic blanket bogs in the maritime regions of North-western Europe. The distribution of plant species was explained mainly by depth of the water table. The distribution of bryophytes was secondarily explained by the pH of the bog water, while the distribution of vascular plants was secondarily explained by concentrations of ammonia. The vegetation distribution exhibited little variation between the central sector of the peatland and its disturbed edges (hill-grazing and restoration areas), but a substantial variation was observed between the area along a natural edge (stream) and the areas close to the other peatland borders or centre. Similarly, the internal variation within each sector (centre, hill-grazing edge and restoration area edge) was small, but substantial vegetation variation was observed within the area located along the stream. The area along the stream was associated with relatively deep water table, shallow peat depth, high water colour, pH and NH4+ concentrations, and low Cl− concentrations in the bog water. Our results suggest the existence of strong centre-natural margin gradients, as in raised bogs, and indicate that human or animal disturbance do not give rise to the marked transition zones that often characterize natural margins of mire systems. This indicates that even small areas and remnants of Atlantic blanket bogs are worthy of conservation and that their conservation value would benefit from the inclusion of sectors close to the natural peatland borders, which would increase the plant biodiversity of the conserved area.

The average dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy in the neutral and unstable atmospheric surface layer

The mean rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy is related to the surface fluxes of momentum and heat through the turbulent kinetic energy budget equation. This relationship may be used to estimate surface fluxes from measurements of the dissipation rates. The success of recent applications of the approach has been limited by uncertainties surrounding the functional relationship between the dimensionless dissipation rates and the atmospheric stability parameter. A pair of field experiments was designed and carried out in the atmospheric surface layer to identify this functional relationship over a broad range of neutral and convective flows, covering greater than 3 orders of magnitude in the stability parameter. Mean dissipation rates were computed using Fourier power spectra, second-order structure functions, and third-order structure functions. Arguments are presented for the superiority of the third-order approach. A three-sublayer conceptual model is invoked to guide the dimensional analysis, and the resulting dissipation rates are shown to scale uniquely in the three sublayers. Near the wall, in the dynamic sublayer, dissipation is significantly less than production, as energy is transported up to the more convective regions, where an equality between dissipation and production is achieved.