Gerard Whelan

Twenty Years of Rail Crowding Valuation Studies: Evidence and Lessons from British Experience

Abstract This paper reviews evidence from British experience of the valuation of rail crowding obtained over 20 years from 17 studies. It summarizes these studies, places some useful empirical evidence in the public domain and draws lessons from this considerable body of evidence and experience. Crowding valuations, both for standing and seated in crowding conditions, are summarized in terms of time multipliers, which are inherently more transferable than monetary equivalents. A meta‐analysis of 208 valuations is reported, finding the valuations to vary with load factor and journey purpose. The seating multiplier averages 1.19 and the standing multiplier averages 2.32. The latter is in line with widely used multipliers applied to walking and waiting time. The most recent evidence is based around the number of standing passengers per square metre, thereby providing a more accurate measure of the discomfort of standing since, unlike load factor, it allows for the layout of the carriage and ease with which crowding can be accommodated. As far as methodology is concerned, the paper covers issues such as presenting crowding in ‘stated preference’ exercises and the realism of the crowding levels offered, non‐linearities in the relationship between crowding multipliers and the severity and amount of crowding time, and probabilistic versus deterministic representations of crowding. The paper also identifies future areas for research.

Valuation of improved railway rolling stock: A review of the literature and new evidence

The paper provides a comprehensive review of a large amount of previously unpublished British evidence about the valuation of new railway rolling stock and its effects on demand. An important conclusion is that incentives to bias Stated Preference responses and unfamiliarity with the rolling stock being considered have led to inflated values. This has broader implications for the use of Stated Preference techniques. Also provided is fresh empirical evidence for a range of different types of rolling stock and specific rolling stock attributes. A novel aspect of the research was the use of disaggregate Revealed Preference choice data. The estimated rolling stock values are much lower than those obtained from previous studies.

Rail Passenger Demand Forecasting: Cross-Sectional Models Revisited

This chapter revisits cross-sectional models of rail travel demand, a much neglected area in recent years, by covering three developments in the context of inter-urban travel. First, the models are extended to allow a detailed analysis of catchment areas; the ticket-sales data that are used to estimate these models only cover journeys between stations. Second, access to and egress from stations are investigated by refining functions of population and accessibility to stations separately from rail service quality. The best models are achieved with inverted s-shaped access and egress functions rather than assuming constant elasticity. Third, station choice is modeled using a multinomial logit model that yields fresh insights into rail travel demand.

Competition and ownership in land passenger transport: the fifth international conference

The aim of this introductory paper is provide the background to the Fifth International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport, which was held in Leeds, UK, in May 1997 and was attended by around 120 delegates from 20 countries. This is done by reviewing past conferences in the series and summarizing the structure of the Leeds conference and the key emerging themes. Further details are given by the five workshop reports that accompany this introduction.