Germán Héctor González

REEXAMINING THE LINK BETWEEN INSTABILITY AND GROWTH IN LATIN AMERICA: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ESTIMATION USING K-MEDIAN CLUSTERS

We estimate a dynamic panel data model to assess the relationship between different levels of instability—proxied by growth volatility and inflation— and growth in Latin America from 1960 to 2011. Outlying observations could be mistakenly treated as thresholds or regime switch. Hence we use k-median clustering to mitigate the outlier problem and properly identify “scenarios” of instability. Our key findings are that while high inflation is harmful, low inflation is in fact positively related to growth. Volatility is also found to be significant and negative, but with no differential effect— between low and high levels—on growth.

APERTURA Y PRODUCTIVIDAD TOTAL DE LOS FACTORES: ANALISIS DE LA CONTEMPORANEIDAD EN LOS QUIEBRES ESTRUCTURALES PARA AMERICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE

Se ha estudiado la existencia de quiebres estructurales en la PTF y en varios indicadores de apertura para una muestra de 20 economias latinoamericanas y del Caribe para el periodo 1960-2005. Se han utilizado los tests de Zivot y Andrews (1992) y el de Bai Perron (1998) sobre una serie de PTF computada a partir de un ejercicio de contabilidad del desarrollo (Hsieh y Klenow, 2010) y sobre medidas alternativas de apertura con diferentes caracteres (Wacziarg, 2001). Los casos de quiebre en la PTF durante el proceso de consolidacion de la apertura en la region (1985-1995) no son significativos. Los resultados parecen indicar que los shocks en la apertura operan sobre las tasas de crecimiento de la PTF.

The «Argentine failure» from a comparative perspective: the role of total factor productivity

The paper proposes an interpretation of the «Argentine failure» based on development accounting and econometrical approaches frequently used in the current cross-country income differentials literature. The main results are as follows: the development process of Canada — in term of per capita GDP –– moved away from that of Argentina around 1918, but there was a structural change in the determinants of aggregate productivity around 1935 that led Argentina to take a diverging path. Recovery — thanks to improved aggregate productivity –– was not possible after 1940. The results support the idea that Argentina fell into a «staple trap», while Canada embarked on a successful path due to the adjacency and political proximity with a larger and complementary economy.