Gerrit Hansen

Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation: special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Renewable energy and climate change 2. Bioenergy 3. Direct solar energy 4. Geothermal energy 5. Hydropower 6. Ocean energy 7. Wind energy 8. Integration of renewable energy into present and future energy systems 9. Renewable energy in the context of sustainable development 10. Mitigation potential and costs 11. Policy, financing and implementation Annex I. Glossary and acronyms Annex II. Methodology Annex III. Recent renewable energy cost and performance parameters Annex IV. Contributors to the IPCC Special Report Annex V. Reviewers of the IPCC Special Report Annex VI. Permissions to publish.

Renewable Energy in the Context of Sustainable Development

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The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts.

Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution

Abstract Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.

Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies

The issue of climate related loss and damage (L&D) has re-emerged and gained significant traction in international climate policy in recent years. However, many aspects remain unclear, including how aspects of liability and compensation in relation with L&D will be treated under the UNFCCC, human rights and environmental law. Furthermore, the type of scientific evidence required to link climate change impacts for each of these L&D mechanisms needs to be clarified. Here we analyze to which degree different types of scientific evidence can inform L&D discussions and policies. We distinguish between (i) L&D observation, (ii) understanding causation, and (iii) linking L&D to anthropogenic emissions through attribution studies. We draw on three case studies from Australia, Colombia and Alaska to demonstrate the relevance of the different types of evidence. We then discuss the potential and limitations of these types of scientific evidence, in particular attribution, for informing current L&D discussions and policies. Attribution (iii) sets the highest bar, but also provides the most complete set of information to support adaptation, risk reduction and L&D policies. However, rather than suggesting that attribution is a necessary requirement for L&D policies we want to highlight its potential for facilitating a more thematically structured, and thus hopefully a more constructive, policy and justice discussion.

From Targets to Action: Rolling up our Sleeves after Paris

At the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015 ambitious targets for responding to the threat of climate change have been set: limiting global temperature increase to “well below 2 °C […] and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C”. However, calculating the CO2 budget for 1.5 °C, it becomes clear that there is nearly no room left for future emissions. Scenarios suggest that negative emission technologies will play an even more important role for 1.5 °C than they already play for 2 °C. Especially against this background the feasibility of the target(s) is hotly debated, but this debate does not initiate the next steps that are urgently needed. Already the negotiations have featured the move from targets to implementation which is needed in the coming decade. Most importantly, there is an urgent need to develop and implement instruments that incentivize the rapid decarbonization. Moreover, it needs to be worked out how to link the climate and development agenda and prevent a buildup of coal power causing lock‐in effects. Short term entry points into climate policy should now be in the focus instead of the fruitless debate on the feasibility of targets.

Rapid systematic assessment of the detection and attribution of regional anthropogenic climate change

Despite being a well-established research field, the detection and attribution of observed climate change to anthropogenic forcing is not yet provided as a climate service. One reason for this is the lack of a methodology for performing tailored detection and attribution assessments on a rapid time scale. Here we develop such an approach, based on the translation of quantitative analysis into the “confidence” language employed in recent Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While its systematic nature necessarily ignores some nuances examined in detailed expert assessments, the approach nevertheless goes beyond most detection and attribution studies in considering contributors to building confidence such as errors in observational data products arising from sparse monitoring networks. When compared against recent expert assessments, the results of this approach closely match those of the existing assessments. Where there are small discrepancies, these variously reflect ambiguities in the details of what is being assessed, reveal nuances or limitations of the expert assessments, or indicate limitations of the accuracy of the sort of systematic approach employed here. Deployment of the method on 116 regional assessments of recent temperature and precipitation changes indicates that existing rules of thumb concerning the detectability of climate change ignore the full range of sources of uncertainty, most particularly the importance of adequate observational monitoring.

Sustainable Development as a Cornerstone of a Future Energy System

The transformation of the energy system is a pre-requisite for climate change mitigation. Access to clean, affordable energy is a fundamental requirement for sustainable development. On the one hand, distributional effects of climate policy at state and regional level are the subject of scientific debate, as associated higher energy prices may increase inequity and hamper development in developing countries. On the other hand, a low-carbon energy system holds the potential to deliver multiple co-benefits in the areas of health, environmental integrity and energy security. However, the impacts of a transitional energy system on the various goals of sustainable development have not been sufficiently addressed in existing research.

Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Contents

Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Renewable energy and climate change 2. Bioenergy 3. Direct solar energy 4. Geothermal energy 5. Hydropower 6. Ocean energy 7. Wind energy 8. Integration of renewable energy into present and future energy systems 9. Renewable energy in the context of sustainable development 10. Mitigation potential and costs 11. Policy, financing and implementation Annex I. Glossary and acronyms Annex II. Methodology Annex III. Recent renewable energy cost and performance parameters Annex IV. Contributors to the IPCC Special Report Annex V. Reviewers of the IPCC Special Report Annex VI. Permissions to publish.

Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Section III

Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Renewable energy and climate change 2. Bioenergy 3. Direct solar energy 4. Geothermal energy 5. Hydropower 6. Ocean energy 7. Wind energy 8. Integration of renewable energy into present and future energy systems 9. Renewable energy in the context of sustainable development 10. Mitigation potential and costs 11. Policy, financing and implementation Annex I. Glossary and acronyms Annex II. Methodology Annex III. Recent renewable energy cost and performance parameters Annex IV. Contributors to the IPCC Special Report Annex V. Reviewers of the IPCC Special Report Annex VI. Permissions to publish.